6 low-risk, high-reward starting pitching targets for the Cardinals this offseason

Michael Soroka

This list is going to bounce between a variety of "types" of low-risk, high-reward options, and former Atlanta Braves phenom Michael Soroka sticks out to me as the perfect example of what I mean in this exercise.

Soroka was incredible for the Braves as a 21-year-old in 2019, going 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 174.2 innings for Atlanta that year, finishing sixth in National League Cy Young voting as a rookie. Unfortunately, Soroka tore his Achilles the following season in just his third start of the year, and after experiencing a host of setbacks, he tore that same Achilles again in 2021.

Soroka continued to experience soreness and then a hamstring issue during his time with Atlanta and was eventually packaged with four other players in a deal to the White Sox for Aaron Bummer. Soroka experienced some shoulder issues in 2024 with Chicago and was limited to just 79.2 innings of work where he made nine starts and 16 relief appearances.

Still, Soroka just turned 27 years old and still has things left in the tank for a team willing to take a chance on him. Soroka will likely be looking to land with a rebuilding team with plenty of opportunities available, so depending on how St. Louis handles their current rotation options, they could fit the bill for him.

Soroka's slider and fastball both graded out positively in 2024, and he has not lost anything on his heater despite some shoulder issues and missing so much time over the last few years. Considering Soroka has almost no sustained track record to present to teams since that 2019 campaign, it is hard to believe he'll get anything more than a flyer contract.

Soroka's strikeouts went up in 2024, but some of that is due to his usage out of the bullpen. Still, we've seen Soroka be great before, he is still young, and the majority of his injury history, especially the significant ones, has been related to his lower body rather than his elbow or arm.

Let's say the Cardinals lose three or more of Gray, Lynn, Gibson, Fedde, and Matz. You'd pencil in Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy into that rotation, and you'd like to leave room for Quinn Mathews to steal a spot, but there is no need to force him into one. Depending on how many of those veterans the Cardinals still have around, bringing in a Soroka to compete with them seems like an upside play to me.

If he does not pan out, move him to the bullpen like Chicago did, or his contract will likely be small enough that a DFA is fine. Sure, it's frustrating if it does not work out, but the risk of losing a few million dollars vs. hitting on a quality reliever or starter is worth it in my eyes.

The Cardinals have helped pitchers with similar profiles like Pallante and McGreevy find success in the last calendar year, and Soroka has already had a Cy Young votes-worthy season in his resume. Assuming the asking price is low, I say bring him into camp and see what happens.