6 low-risk, high-reward starting pitching targets for the Cardinals this offseason

Jeffrey Springs

In February 2021, Chaim Bloom made a deal with his former organization, the Tampa Bay Rays, sending the then designated for assignment lefty Jeffrey Springs from Boston to Tampa in a deal where Bloom targeted two prospects he was familiar with. It's safe to say that was one of the moves Bloom would have liked to have had back during his tenure with the Red Sox.

While Springs was hit hard in his brief stint with Boston in 2020, his strikeout stuff was impressive (28.3%) and his FIP was 4.81 despite the 7.08 ERA he sported that season. Still, Boston did not have room for Springs on their 40-man roster and moved him to Tampa instead.

At age 28, Springs had an awesome season out of the Rays' bullpen, posting a 3.30 ERA and 35.2 K% in 43 games. The next season, Springs appeared in 33 games, but 25 of those were starts and he managed a 2.46 ERA over 135.1 innings of work, seeing his strikeout stuff drop off a bit but becoming a highly impactful starter. His 2023 season was cut short due to injury, but in the three starts he did make, Springs regained his elite strikeout stuff while starting, posting a 0.56 in 16 innings of work.

Upon Springs' return at the end of this season, he made seven starts while posting a 3.27 ERA and striking out batters 26.1% of the time. while it was not a large sample size by any means, his Chase%, Whiff%, and K% were all excellent and his xERA and xBA were really solid as well. Springs' average fastball velocity had dipped from just under 92 MPH in 2023 to 89.8 MPH in 2024 though, something worth monitoring.

While I do expect the Rays to compete in 2025, Springs is owed $10.5 million in both 2025 and 2026 with a $15 million club option in 2027. We all know how the Rays tend to operate in trading away players as they get expensive in order to replenish their system, and Springs is projected to be their highest-paid player in 2025 at this moment.

Coming off a year where he missed most of it due to injury, they certainly would not be selling him at peak value, although, they do risk his value declining further and paying him $10 million+ each of the next two years. Not a bad number to bet on though, so I'm not sure they'll be as intent on moving him as they were with Glasnow last offseason.

I wonder how much the damage to Tropicana Field during Hurricane Milton may shift some of their plans financially. All of that is still to be determined, but there's a growing chance they won't play any games there in 2025, meaning they may see even less revenue from home games as they are also figuring out other potential investments they may need to make. They have a new stadium planned for 2028, so they are in a really tough spot.

Still, the main reason I bring up Springs is due to how the Rays operate in general and Bloom's familiarity with both Tampa Bay and Springs from his time with the Rays and the Red Sox. The Cardinals are also frequent trade partners with the Rays already, so perhaps Tampa Bay could target some young position players or pitching in exchange for Springs.

Michael Soroka

This list is going to bounce between a variety of "types" of low-risk, high-reward options, and former Atlanta Braves phenom Michael Soroka sticks out to me as the perfect example of what I mean in this exercise.

Soroka was incredible for the Braves as a 21-year-old in 2019, going 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 174.2 innings for Atlanta that year, finishing sixth in National League Cy Young voting as a rookie. Unfortunately, Soroka tore his Achilles the following season in just his third start of the year, and after experiencing a host of setbacks, he tore that same Achilles again in 2021.

Soroka continued to experience soreness and then a hamstring issue during his time with Atlanta and was eventually packaged with four other players in a deal to the White Sox for Aaron Bummer. Soroka experienced some shoulder issues in 2024 with Chicago and was limited to just 79.2 innings of work where he made nine starts and 16 relief appearances.

Still, Soroka just turned 27 years old and still has things left in the tank for a team willing to take a chance on him. Soroka will likely be looking to land with a rebuilding team with plenty of opportunities available, so depending on how St. Louis handles their current rotation options, they could fit the bill for him.

Soroka's slider and fastball both graded out positively in 2024, and he has not lost anything on his heater despite some shoulder issues and missing so much time over the last few years. Considering Soroka has almost no sustained track record to present to teams since that 2019 campaign, it is hard to believe he'll get anything more than a flyer contract.

Soroka's strikeouts went up in 2024, but some of that is due to his usage out of the bullpen. Still, we've seen Soroka be great before, he is still young, and the majority of his injury history, especially the significant ones, has been related to his lower body rather than his elbow or arm.

Let's say the Cardinals lose three or more of Gray, Lynn, Gibson, Fedde, and Matz. You'd pencil in Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy into that rotation, and you'd like to leave room for Quinn Mathews to steal a spot, but there is no need to force him into one. Depending on how many of those veterans the Cardinals still have around, bringing in a Soroka to compete with them seems like an upside play to me.

If he does not pan out, move him to the bullpen like Chicago did, or his contract will likely be small enough that a DFA is fine. Sure, it's frustrating if it does not work out, but the risk of losing a few million dollars vs. hitting on a quality reliever or starter is worth it in my eyes.

The Cardinals have helped pitchers with similar profiles like Pallante and McGreevy find success in the last calendar year, and Soroka has already had a Cy Young votes-worthy season in his resume. Assuming the asking price is low, I say bring him into camp and see what happens.

Jesus Luzardo

The Miami Marlins are going through another one of those major front-office and roster turnovers that they seem to embrace every four to five years. Jesus Luzardo was a popular trade candidate last offseason and going into the 2024 campaign, but injuries and a major down year caused the Marlins to hold onto him.

With multiple years of control remaining, Luzardo won't be a likely trade candidate in my eyes, but I do see a world where the Cardinals and Marlins could swap "down" assets in hopes of reshuffling their rosters.

What if the Cardinals made a Nolan Gorman available for Luzardo? The Marlins, who desperately need offensive, buy low on a struggling back with big-time power by sending their big-time lefty who imploded last year in his own way. Luzardo has two fewer years of control as well, giving the Marlins someone who better fits their timeline in Gorman.

One year after making 32 starts and posting a 3.58 ERA and 28.1 K%, Luzardo's numbers slipped significantly, with his strikeout percentage dropping to just 21.2% and posting a 5.00 ERA in his 12 starts. His fastball velocity was just a tick lower overall, and while his whiff% remained high, his chase% and walk% all dropped significantly.

The only way I see a deal coming together for both sides is if Miami and St. Louis both see this as an opportunity to shuffle their teams a bit. While the Cardinals' offense also struggled in 2024, shaking up that group and changing out some of those names for high-upside pitching could be an interesting play.

Sandy Alcantara was someone I found to be an interesting potential target, but I find him to be even more awkward of a fit for this list. Alcantara just missed the entire 2024 season after having Tommy John surgery in October of 2023, and he is due $17.3 million in both 2025 and 2026. Considering how good he's been in the past, I'm not sure Miami would do a true salary dump here, and I'm also not confident a team would want to part with great assets for him either at the moment.

John Means

Back to buy low-candidates, John Means emerged as a promising starter for the Baltimore Orioles toward the end of their rebuilding years. In 2019, Means posted a 3.60 ERA in 155 innings, and after a 4.53 ERA in the COVID season, replicated his 2019 production with a 3.62 ERA in 26 starts for the Orioles.

Since then, Means has had Tommy John surgery twice, keeping him off of the field for the majority of the 2022-2024 seasons. Even so, whenever Means has been back on the mound, he has been effective, and he is totally worth a flyer for a team like the Cardinals who can afford a risk here.

Means fits a lot of the profile of what the Cardinals have liked in their starters in recent years. Means is elite at preventing walks, so he rarely gives up a free base to opposing hitters. Means does not generate many strikeouts, but his changeup does generate a lot of whiffs and he is at his best when he is keeping hitters off balance and getting weak contact.

We aren't talking about a guy here in Means who is going to emerge as some top-of-the-rotation starter if all goes well, but he could be a highly effective mid-rotation arm. Lefties tend to have an advantage in Busch Stadium as well, so Means could do a Jose Quintana impression for the Cardinals if all goes well.

Means to me would be the kind of signing the Cardinals could make if he is not getting great offers and is looking for a prove-it deal, and the club could flip him at the deadline if they are selling or use him as a part of a playoff push if they are able to play well. I would assume that Means is getting less than the $12 million options for Gibson or Lynn, but if that is not the case, then it probably just makes more sense to bring back one of those guys over him.

Walker Buehler

It has been a tough few years for Walker Buehler, as injuries have robbed the now 30-year-old right-hander of what looked to be a promising career ahead of him.

With the Dodgers already having way too many injury-prone arms on their roster, Buehler is likely going to have to find a new home this offseason in free agency. ESPN's Jeff Passan has already compared him to Jack Flaherty last offseason, looking for a one-year "pillow" deal to rebuild his value.

Rather than bringing back a Gibson or Lynn this offseason, Buehler is the exact kind of arm they should be targeting on a one-year, maybe even two-year deal if he is open to coming to St. Louis.

How the rest of this postseason plays out for Buehler will likely have some impact on his market, but I can't imagine him getting a long-term deal no matter how things go. He did just have a nice start in the NLCS against the Mets, getting 18 whiffs while striking out six batters in four shutout innings.

Some kind of one-year deal in the $14m-$16m range feels right for Buehler, maybe a hair more if there is a lot of interest in him. He looked great in that last start but only went four innings in the Wild Card Series as well while giving up two runs. In the regular season, Buehler made just 16 starts this year with a 5.38 ERA. He really has not done enough to earn more than a prove-it deal.

In Buehler's underlying numbers, you like to see that his fastball velocity is still in the mid-90s and he is preventing hard contact while keeping the ball on the ground. His strikeout stuff has really fallen off, but as we saw against the Mets, if he misses bats he is really hard to hit against.

St. Louis would honestly be a great situation for Buehler to land in. Locked into a rotation spot, low-pressure situation in a "reset" year, pitcher's ballpark, and there has been encouraging work from Dusty Blake with the Cardinals arms the last two years that indicate they can help a starter like Buehler rebound well. Plus, we know Bloom is going to be continuing to revamp their pitching development, and we've seen how an organization like the Rays can "fix" pitchers.

Bring him to St. Louis and see what happens. If all goes well, you try and keep him around long-term or flip him at the deadline. If it does not, well, you just lost money in a year where you didn't necessarily "need" it to win games. Buehler is the perfect target for St. Louis.

Shane Bieber

I'm going to say this upfront, I do not see this happening. I'm simply talking through a scenario I consider interesting for St. Louis, but I just do not see them actually pulling it off.

If the Cardinals wanted to get really frisky this offseason, working with Shane Bieber on a creative multi-year deal or a lucrative one-year deal would make all of the sense in the world.

2023 was a down year for Bieber as his strikeout stuff continued to decline, walks went up, he was getting hit harder, and all signs pointed to him not being the same guy anymore. Well, it was just two starts in 2024, but Bieber was unhittable, allowing zero runs in 12 innings while striking out 20 batters in the process.

Bieber was then sidelined for the remained of the season due to Tommy John surgery and is now entering free agency in a bit of a limbo.

Believe it or not, Bieber is actually younger than Buehler and will not turn 30 until May. Bieber, if he recovers well and gets back on the track he was on before elbow surgery, still could have multiple prime years ahead of him, making him a fascinating risk for anyone who wants to try.

Bieber should be back in early 2025, but you never quite know with surgeries like his. I am sure there will be some contenders out there who would take on that kind of risk, but the Cardinals would be wise to consider outbidding the market if it does not get too crazy.

Injuries are always a factor, but as long as Bieber is healthy, I doubt he is not an effective starting pitcher moving forward. Could he trend more toward a number three starter? That could happen. But there is also the promise of him returning to top form, and that's a guy you cannot get at a bargain on the open market, especially before the age of 30.

I personally would be open to giving him a multi-year deal with options if he is open to it. Maybe something like a two-year, $40 million deal with an option for a third year? Maybe a mutual option where Bieber could opt out or the Cardinals could buy him out if either side wanted out of that third year? I think we'll see contenders offering him one-year deals, but not sure any would go multi-year with him, and that may be the way to beat the market.

Or just simply pay more than anyone else for that one-year deal. Obviously, if the Cardinals are slashing payroll significantly, it is not happening, but if don't have to reduce by a crazy amount and they are letting a lot of veterans go via free agency or trade, there could be some money to play around with.

Again, the appeal here has to be the fact that the Cardinals could find a front-line starter for their future or they are able to flip him for a great return at the deadline. If it doesn't work out, again, just wastes money.

The one wrench that could get thrown into this that I would 100% avoid Bieber would be if he gets a qualifying offer from the Guardians. There is no way the Cardinals should be forfeiting a draft pick this offseason, and John Mozeliak has already confirmed this himself. It still feels unclear whether or not the Guardians give him one at this point, as he'd become their highest-paid player if they did. One year of that after at minimum making the ALCS could be something that interests them, but it may hamstring what they are able to do with other areas of their roster.

Again, we are still weeks away from seeing how the market is beginning to develop, and likely a month away from a lot of things actually happening. Each of these names could have things happen with them that make them poor targets for St. Louis, but I did want to examine each of the six and how they could be a target for the Cardinals if things move in their direction.