6 keys to the St. Louis Cardinals pulling off a dream trade deadline

3. Find a suitor for Nolan Arenado

The Cardinals have a really sticky situation on their hands with Nolan Arenado, and it's only gotten more complicated as the season has gone on. No, not because other clubs are interested, but quite the contrary. Arenado's on-field performance this year seems to have shot any chance contenders will want to make a move for him.

The New York Yankees just filled their need at third base with Ryan McMahon, and while the Los Angeles Dodgers could use another option at third base, there has been zero smoke of them being a suitor for Arenado anytime soon. The Houston Astros need a third baseman again, but do they want to retread Arenado? Would he accept a trade there now?

Arenado has taken another big step back offensively this year, posting a .239/.298/.375 slash line with 10 home runs in 92 games. His 87 wRC+ is down 15 points from last season, and there aren't many reasons to believe it is going to get any better. While Arenado is one of the best in baseball at making contact and not striking out, he's in the 40th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, bat speed, and chase%, as well as the bottom 18th percentile in average xwOBA, average exit velocity, barrel%, hard-hit%, launch angle sweet spot%, and chase%.

The FanGraphs "dollars" stat helps attribute market value to a player's performance, with every 1 fWAR being worth about $7.8 million on the open market. Arenado has been worth exactly 1 fWAR this season, but he's being paid $32 million between the Cardinals and the Rockies. Next year, he is owed $27 million, and in 2027, he is due $15 million.

If this regression continues, Arenado won't just be overpaid; he'll be an albatross contract. His elite defense is continuing to prop up his value, and if that even begins to fade a bit, things will get really tough for Arenado in terms of being a valuable player.

So, part of a dream trade deadline would be finding a suitor to take on as much of Arenado's contract as possible and get him off their books. The odds are his contract will only look worse from here, and that's not a conversation we are going to want the Cardinals to continue to have for the next two seasons.

On top of that, creating more space for other young bats is important for the future of this club. JJ Wetherholt is coming, and they have other young players who should be playing right now, so having Arenado on the roster only complicates the situation further.