6 biggest 'ifs' toward success for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

The Cardinals bullpen must be healthy and dominant late in games IF the team wants to be successful next year.

The Cardinals boast the 2024 major-league leader in saves in Ryan Helsley. The assumption throughout the league is that he will be able to find plenty of success in 2025 in the closer role once again, albeit possibly not to the same levels he reached last year. Behind him will be JoJo Romero, Matthew Liberatore (hopefully), and Ryan Fernandez. Others like John King, Kyle Leahy, and possibly even Steven Matz will provide reinforcements out of the 'pen.

Last year, the Cardinals played in 51 one-run games, a total that trailed only the Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, and Oakland Athletics, and was tied with the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates. They finished with a 29-22 record for the fifth-best winning percentage in said games.

There's a high likelihood that the Cardinals find themselves in a comparable amount of one-run games in 2025 given the lack of moves this offseason to dramatically improve the offense beyond prayers for internal growth and improvements. Therefore, the bullpen must be as stout as it was last year, particularly from the seventh inning on.

On the whole, the bullpen was strong. The staff ranked 7th in ERA, 8th in FIP, and led the league in both holds and saves. These results must be duplicated next year if the Cardinals want to contend for a playoff spot.

There is a major hole in the relief corps for the Cardinals, however. Set-up man Andrew Kittredge has agreed to a one-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles. The Cardinals must find a way to replace his production either via free agency or with an internal candidate. Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence, and Matt Svanson could be dark horses to pitch late in games. Even Cooper Hjerpe or Tekoah Roby could surprise skeptics and provide meaningful innings in relief.

Most of the relievers are returning from the 2024 squad. There is a solid core of pitchers who can be relied upon late in games. If supplementary young pitchers can take some strides forward, there's a chance the 2025 Cardinals' bullpen can replicate the success that the 2024 group had. This success is vital to the team's ability to stay afloat this year.