6 biggest 'ifs' toward success for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

IF the offense can take it up a notch next year, the Cardinals will make the playoffs, all else equal.

According to wRC+, the St. Louis Cardinals were just 2% worse than league average offensively last year. They ranked 18th in the league in this statistic. They ranked 11th in batting average, 14th in on-base percentage, 19th in slugging percentage, and 16th in wOBA. They were essentially a league-average offense when looking at the broader picture.

However, a closer examination will show where the cracks were for the Cardinals offensively last year.

Cardinal hitters were a disaster class with runners in scoring position. Their 80 wRC+ in these situations was ahead of only the Chicago White Sox. They had the fourth-worst batting average, fourth-worst on-base percentage, and the third-worst slugging percentage in these situations. Among qualified hitters on the team, only Brendan Donovan was an above-average hitter with runners in scoring position last year.

Had the Cardinals been even an average team with runners in scoring position, and we might be talking about how they can build on their 2024 division title or wild card appearance to take the next step in 2025. Instead, we are left lamenting what could have been following a sub-par offensive performance.

If the Cardinals intend on making the playoffs this year, they need to find success offensively, particularly with runners in scoring position.

Paul Goldschmidt had a 60 wRC+ in these situations, and he's off the roster. Willson Contreras, who had a 109 wRC+ with RISP and will supplant Goldy at first base, is a drastic improvement. Ivan Herrera and Lars Nootbaar had a 108 wRC+ and 107 wRC+ with RISP, respectively. Even Alec Burleson was essentially a league-average hitter with RISP with a 99 wRC+. These four players alone along with Brendan Donovan should make a recipe for success in run-scoring situations.

A boost in results with runners in scoring position is essential for the Cardinals in 2025. These are moments in the game that can create energy and push a team to success. Cashing in on run-scoring moments will also salvage the bullpen, which leads me to my next point.