6 biggest 'ifs' toward success for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

Erick Fedde must be the pitcher he was in the first half IF the Cardinals want to be successful in 2025.

Do you know how many teams had at least two pitchers on their team who finished in the top 25 of all pitchers in fWAR last year? Seven: the Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha), the Seattle Mariners (George Kirby and Logan Gilbert), the Atlanta Braves (Chris Sale and Max Fried), the San Diego Padres (Dylan Cease and Michael King), the Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola), the Houston Astros (Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi), and the St. Louis Cardinals (Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde).

Sure, most of Fedde's fWAR was accumulated while with the Chicago White Sox, but that doesn't mean that he can't replicate that success in 2025.

Fedde had a career year last year. He had a 3.30 ERA and a 3.86 FIP in 177.1 innings pitched for a 126 ERA+. That's top-of-the-rotation stuff there. After arriving in St. Louis, Fedde took a step back. His ERA went up nearly two points, his strikeouts dipped, and his walks rose.

Fedde's first month with the Cardinals was rough. His ERA ballooned from 3.11 through July to 3.43 after August. He allowed four or more runs in three of his seven starts in the season's penultimate month, and he made it through the sixth inning just twice.

However, he began to settle down in the final month of the season. In four starts in September, Fedde had a 2.57 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 21 innings. Don't expect results like that from the 32-year-old righty, but it's definitely a strong sign for 2025.

Sonny Gray, according to most projection websites, will return to his ace form or at least something close to it in 2025. Having Erick Fedde as a #2 behind him bodes well for the Cardinals' rotation next year. They'll be leaning on a healthy mix of veterans like Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz behind these two along with youngsters like Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, and Quinn Mathews (more on these young pitchers later) in the rotation next year.

If the Cardinals can see meaningful innings out of Erick Fedde next year, they will find plenty of success. He doesn't have to be an ace, but duplication of his 2024 season will pair perfectly at the top of the Cardinals' rotation.