The Cardinals take a chance on someone they should have signed years ago
Back in 2017, the Cardinals were in hot pursuit of a top international prospect named Luis Robert Jr. They made a strong offer and were in on his market till the very end, but ended up losing out to the White Sox. While Robert would have been a huge asset to the club in recent years, the Cardinals could take a gamble and bring him to St. Louis this offseason.
Robert has had an up-and-down career for the White Sox thus far. In 2021, he posted a 155 wRC+ in 68 games, showing just how valuable of a player he could be when healthy. He struggled to stay healthy again in 2022 but posted a 111 wRC+, but really put together his best all-around season in 2023 when he played in 145 games with a 128 wRC+. He's an above-average defender in center field, and when the bat plays, he is one of the most exciting players in baseball.
2024 was a disaster for Robert though, much like the whole White Sox experience. He played in just 100 games and posted an 84 wRC+ at the plate with negative defensive metrics. I'd imagine that he'll be motivated by a move to a different club, but the injury concerns are something that makes him a risk for any club acquiring Robert.
That, paired with a $15 million price tag in 2025, means if he cannot rebound, he'll be a pretty major negative for the club acquiring him. Robert does have two club options for 2026 and 2027, both at $20 million. Again, that is a bargain for the kind of production he can provide in center field, but it's really bad money on the books if he looks more like his 2024 self or is constantly hurt.
Center field is easily the position the Cardinals could stand the most to upgrade at, especially adding a right-handed bat. Robert could be worth the risk for the club, but it will cost them something to make it happen.
I wonder if that package could look like Alec Burleson and Gordon Graceffo. The White Sox could swap out Robert for a young bat with a ton of team control as they embark on this long rebuild, and Burleson could be a part of their next contending core. While his second half in 2024 was quite disappointing, he did put up a 125 wRC+ in the first half, and if he can figure out how to do that over the course of a season, that's an extremely valuable piece to have.
With the Cardinals moving Contreras to first base and having plenty of corner outfield and DH options, Burleson may be someone they can part with in order to upgrade a weaker position on their roster like center field.
Graceffo is still an intriguing prospect but is likely a back-of-the-rotation starter at best, with a future as a bullpen arm very much in the cards. Sending him to Chicago alongside Burleson would be painful, but I think the potential reward here could be worth the risk.
Giving up this much control for Robert's expensive contract could come back to bite them. If St. Louis can see a future where Robert locks down center field for them though, I think it's worth exploring.