The Cardinals and Mariners finally swap a young bat for a young arm
I promise the rest of the deals I have cooked up are a different formula than this, but like the Marlins deal before this, the Cardinals and Mariners have been long linked together by both fans and pundits to swing a deal together.
The Mariners' rotation is currently made up of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, and all three are middle-of-the-rotation arms or front-line starters moving forward. It is honestly unfair how much good pitching the Mariners have right now, but with how bad their offense is, they really need to consider breaking up that group.
You can never have enough pitching, but the Mariners are risking wasting this awesome rotation they have built if they do not go out and get bats to supplement it. They have their superstar in Julio Rodriguez and have a few interesting complimentary bats in Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, and J.P. Crawford, but they need more if they are going to compete in the American League.
Neither side is going to like giving up what they'll have to part with to make a deal happen, but swapping Lars Nootbaar for one of Miller or Woo seems to make the most sense for both sides, if they can get on the phone with one another.
Starting with Nootbaar, he hits arbitration for the first time this offseason and is under club control through the 2027 season. Cardinals fans are well aware of his profile as a hitter, and if you go check out his Baseball Savant page from 2024, it's literally all red except for his launch angle sweet-spot%. Nootbaar has all of the tools to be a force at the plate, but for some reason, he has struggled to do that consistently. He's been prone to odd injuries, and then once he does get healthy, he takes a while to heat up.
It would be a big risk for the Cardinals to give up the upside that Nootbaar has, but the incentive to do so is by getting a young, proven starter with upside that does not hit free agency until 2030.
Miller posted a 2.94 ERA in 31 starts for the Mariners this year and will likely receive Cy Young votes. While he doesn't have the flashy strikeout stuff that excites fans, his fastball plays at a high level, and his split-finger compliments it well to induce ground balls. Woo, like Miller, posted a sub-3.00 ERA (2.89) in his 22 starts, and was elite at inducing weak contact and preventing walks. Woo is a primary fastball-sinker starter who mixes in a slider, change-up, and sweeper which allows him to keep opposing hitters off balance.
If this trade went down, the Mariners would be betting on the upside of Nootbaar's bat and how it can take their lineup to the next level. For the Cardinals, they'd be adding a high-quality arm with tons of team control and can hope that the rest of their young bats on the roster and in the farm system can carry the offense moving forward.