RHP Seth Lugo
When Seth Lugo was a free agent two years ago, I wrote that the Cardinals should have made a greater effort to sign him on the mid-tier contract that he received. Lugo and the Kansas City Royals agreed to a three-year, $45 million contract in the 2023-2024 offseason that held a player option for the third year. Lugo is likely to exercise that option due to his exceptional pitching these last two years.
Since joining the Royals, Lugo has done nothing but excel at pitching. He finished second in American League Cy Young voting last year thanks to a 3.00 ERA across 33 starts and 206.2 innings. He's picked up right where he left off this year.
In 2025, Lugo has a 2.74 ERA in 15 games to go along with a 1.083 WHIP. He's struck out 76 batters across 88.2 innings. The 35-year-old right-hander has one of the deepest arsenals in baseball, as he's thrown 10 different pitches this year, according to Baseball Savant. His most-used pitches are his four-seamer that tops out around 93 MPH, his curveball that has an inch-and-a-half more vertical break than the average curveball, and a cutter that generates whiffs at a 28% clip.
Lugo doesn't strike batters out often, and a quick glance at his Baseball Savant page would give most fans a bit of a pause, as he's only above league average in his walk rate. The remaining peripherals show that he could be due for some regression. However, Lugo is a proven postseason pitcher, and he could provide valuable experience down the stretch for the Cardinals.
Lugo has a player option for 2026, but he's likely to opt out of the deal that would pay him only $15 million next year. After a runner-up finish in the 2024 AL Cy Young competition, he's setting a course to once again finish in the top five of voting. He could receive a nice multi-year contract as he enters the twilight of his career.
Due to his player option, teams trading for Lugo would treat him like a rental pitcher. The Royals wouldn't be able to ask for much from the Cardinals, but they could weasel their way into a top-10 organizational prospect or a couple of lottery tickets lower in the system.