#5 - It's time for significant conversations about turning the rotation over to younger arms throughout the summer
Like I mentioned earlier, I do not expect a change to the Cardinals' rotation before McGreevy's next spot start, but the coaching staff and front office need to be considering the idea that their rotation could look very different here over the next few months.
Not just because a bunch of injuries happened or the Cardinals traded away veteran arms (which both of which could happen), but because the Cardinals have higher upside arms in Triple-A ready to show what they've got.
The Cardinals' rotation helped them get off to a really good start to their season. Even for how smoke and mirrors it seems to have been, it helped the Cardinals out tremendously, but now that seems to be cracking more and more with each passing day.
On the season, Cardinals starting pitchers rank 18th in all of baseball in ERA (3.93) and 17th in ERA- (99). To no one's surprise, they rank 25th in the game in K% (18.5%) and allow a lot of base hits, 10th worst in the game with a .250 BAA. While their FIP (3.64) ranks eight in baseball, their xFIP (3.96) ranks 16th.
Here's the problem - those numbers aren't trending upwards. The Cardinals have regressed to those rankings for the most part, meaning that they could slide even further if things continue moving in that direction. Even before Wednesday's action against the Blue Jays, Cardinals starters had a 4.98 ERA since May 30th, and they are allowing a .288 BAA, sixth-highest in all of baseball.
Outside of Sonny Gray, I'm not sure who in the Cardinals rotation currently will be able to turn things around. Matthew Liberatore has been excellent this year, but fatigue has hit him hard in his last few starts, and he's looking far more like a back-end of the rotation starter as of late. Andre Pallante has been getting beat around by opposing pitching since spring training, and Miles Mikolas' ERA now sits at a 4.48 after rebounding for a stretch of the season. And don't get me started on Erick Fedde, who, although he sports a 3.54 ERA on the year, his xFIP (5.07) and xERA (5.28) indicate what our eyes tell us: he's very lucky not to have allowed more damage this year.
If the Cardinals are serious about a run to the playoffs this year, they may have to get aggressive with the promotion of other pitching prospects.
McGreevy would be a great first step, but Quinn Mathews and Tekoah Roby may be their only hope at truly raising the ceiling of their rotation and giving them the kind of production they need down the stretch.
Trust me, I know that's asking a lot out of them, and I am not at all saying that the Cardinals have to call them up over the next month or two. But they need to be thinking about it and strongly considering such moves if they believe either or both arms are ready to join their rotation.
Mathews, who is viewed as a top 50 prospect in baseball, has been on the IL most of the year but looks like his old self again in Memphis. Roby, who dominated Double-A to begin the year, just got promoted to Triple-A, and although he struggled in his first start, I would be surprised if his dynamic swing-and-miss stuff doesn't get going rather quickly.
Barring injuries, though, the Cardinals would have to trade, release, demote, or move guys like Pallante, Fedde, and Mikolas to the bullpen to make this happen. And you know what? The Cardinals should be open to this if it makes them a better team.
