#4 - Shop Ryan Helsley
Here's where I may zag from some of you. I say the Cardinals should shop Ryan Helsley right now, but they do not have to trade him at this time. I'll explain why.
If a contender makes an aggressive offer for Ryan Helsley right now, you take it. No questions asked. He's not a part of the long-term plans here in St. Louis, and frankly, I think Helsley will want to see what else is out there for him. If you can get great value for him on the trade market, you do it.
But here's the tension, show me an offseason trade for a closer of Ryan Helsley's stature that matches that description in recent history. Unfortunately, it does not really exist. Those of you that I have gone back and forth with on Twitter/X about this or who've been screaming at the Cardinals to trade Helsley don't seem to acknowledge that. Just because he is a great player and valuable does not mean teams are offering what it should take to get him...at least right now.
You know when historically we have seen closers like Helsley get moved, and actually bring in a strong return? The trade deadline. And honestly, it's not hard to see why.
If I am a contender like the Orioles or whoever you want to say should trade for Helsley right now, why would I do that? Having a great closer is important, but it is far from the top need that most teams have going into the year. Every team needs competent high-leverage relievers during the regular season, but few, if any, "need" elite closers from April to July. You know when you want those guys to come through for you? October. And yeah, August and September would be great too.
If I am Baltimore or any other contender, I'd rather build a deep bullpen this offseason with a ton of options, and see who rises to the top. Maybe they hit on a reliever or two that they can trust at the back end of games. If not, and the Orioles (or said contender) feel like they can push for the World Series, then go out and find that elite closer at the deadline to put you over the top.
Sure, the Cardinals run the risk of Helsley getting injured. That is just a part of the game. But if Helsley is healthy at the deadline and performing even just close to the level we know he can, well, he's going to command a lot from a contender.
And even then, I still say shop, not necessarily essential they make the deal then. Yes, I'll have a much harder time believing the offers aren't good enough at the deadline, but if Helsley does get hurt or the offers aren't there, the club can always give him the qualifying offer and get a draft pick in return.
Yes, the value of that is likely worse than what a strong Helsley package is at the deadline (which is why they shouldn't turn those kinds of deals down). But it may be comparable to whatever offers they are getting this offseason that some insist they must do now. Getting a draft pick in return for Helsley is not the best-case scenario, but it is not a bad consolation either.
Remember, Bloom (and even Flores) have a strong history of hitting on draft picks after the first round. Bloom snagged the top prospect in all of baseball, Roman Anthony, with the 79th pick in the 2022 draft, and Kristian Campbell, another top ten prospect in baseball, with the 132nd pick in 2023. Flores drafted Masyn Winn (54th), Tink Hence (63rd), and Alec Burleson (70th) in the 2020 draft class, Jimmy Crooks with the 127th pick in the 2022 draft, and Quinn Mathews 122nd overall in 2023.
Giving the new regime ammunition in the draft is not a bad thing. Again, shop Helsley and try to get a haul for him, but if it is not there, hold him until the deadline. And if for some reason that great deal never materializes, a draft pick is not a bad result.