5 Cardinals who are facing make-or-break seasons in 2025

Lars Nootbaar

108. 117. 109. Those are the number of games that Lars Nootbaar has been able to play for the St. Louis Cardinals during his first three big league seasons.

It's not due to a lack of production though. Nootbaar posted a 123 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR in 2022, 118 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR in 2023, and 114 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR in 2024, all in limited sample sizes. If Nootbaar is healthy and on the field for sustained stretches, then he is a tremendous asset to the Cardinals. But his health is a big if at this point.

I know, I know, many of you already have Tyler O'Neill at the tip of your tongue, and while it's not completely unfair to compare the two, I do want to point out two major differences in their situations.

First, O'Neill lacked the year-in and year-out production that Nootbaar has had with the Cardinals during his tenure. Outside of top-10 MVP finish in 2021, O'Neill posted a 70 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR in 2020, 99 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR in 2022, and 97 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR in 2023, the seasons where O'Neill was written in pen as a starting outfielder for the club.

Second, O'Neill's injury history has involved a lot more soft tissue and reoccurring injuries than Nootbaar's, and notably, O'Neill had multiple moments in his time with St. Louis where his effort and desire to play was called into question. If you're upset about how Oliver Marmol handled the base running situation back in 2023, that's fine. But it wasn't just a reaction to that moment. It was a build-up of issues O'Neill had been having for years now, and we even saw him decline to play in Tampa Bay later in the year due to not wanting to risk injury on turf.

There is a reason the Cardinals have been so high on Nootbaar for the last few years. His batted ball profile tells you he's a legit bat, and if he stays on the field, he's proven to be that. The problem is that Nootbaar seems to have this never-ending cycle of a weird injury, slowly working his way back, struggling when he first gets back with the big league club, finding his swing again and looking like a star, and then breaking down again.

While others on this list have real talent and production questions that need to be answered in 2025, for Nootbaar, it's simple. Stay on the field. If he does that, he's shown he'll perform. But if he doesn't, I think there's a real chance he's not in the Cardinals' outfield come 2026.