5 Cardinals players most likely to be traded at this year's Winter Meetings

Miles Mikolas

If I were ranking each of these names from most likely to least likely to be traded this offseason, I think I'd actually have Miles Mikolas as the least likely trade candidate.

While that may surprise people, I think it makes perfect sense. As frustrating as he has been to watch the last two seasons, Mikolas is the definition of a rubber arm, someone who can consistently pump out 180-200 innings and make 30+ starts for your club. That may happen with a 5.50+ ERA, but he does cover a lot of workload for the club he's on.

Making over $18 million next season, Mikolas is on a bad contract, and while it could get paid down to the point that another club would take him, it still would not be for any kind of return. The Cardinals still need some veteran arms around next year to eat innings if young guys cannot, so why not keep the guy who has the least amount of trade value to fit that role?

Let's walk through exactly why for just a moment. Let's say both Fedde and Matz are traded, that leaves the Cardinals with Mikolas, Sonny Gray, and Andre Pallante as their only established starters for their rotation. After that, Michael McGreevy is probably the next man up, but he's only had three big league starts in his career so far. After that, you're looking at names like Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Gordon Graceffo, and Sem Robberse to get opportunities.

At some point, I'd expect Quinn Mathews to jump into that conversation, and potentially names like Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, and Cooper Hjerpe as well. But in the case of these last four names, the Cardinals should not be setting themselves up to "force" those guys into their rotation due to injuries or bad performances. They should just be ready to promote any of them if they earn the opportunity.

If the Cardinals dealt Mikolas too, that's a ton of pressure to put on those young arms I listed above. If they aren't ready, then they'll just be thrown in the fire anyway, and that could hurt development along the way.

Instead, the Cardinals should hold onto Mikolas and have him as insurance. If they need him, use him. If a bunch of those young arms prove they are ready for consistent opportunities, then Mikolas can jump to the bullpen or be designated for an assignment. The Cardinals aren't going to get anything in return for him anyway and the salary relief would be small.

Even though that's what makes the most sense to me, I do believe the Cardinals are open to moving Mikolas, and if the right deal comes, they could pull the trigger. He's still one of their more likely trade candidates for that reason, but I do see a lot of reasons to hold onto him and trade the rest instead.

We'll know soon enough. For now, keep an eye on these five names as the Winter Meetings begin next week.