5 burning questions facing the St. Louis Cardinals as their rebuild gets underway

4. Will Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray be with the Cardinals in 2026?

Speaking of Nolan Arenado, his injured list stint following unsuccessful attempts to move him at the trade deadline, coupled with an indefinite timetable to return to the club this year, has caused myself and others to speculate that Arenado may not suit up for the Cardinals again. Not just this year, but even in 2026.

It has been widely reported at this point that the Cardinals are looking to offload both Arenado and Sonny Gray's contracts this offseason, and while they'll have to eat money on both of those contracts to get it done, the club wants to free up their spending as much as possible to give Chaim Bloom flexibility and to recoup money after another drop in revenue in 2025.

In 96 games this year, Arenado has slashed .235/.294/.366 with 10 home runs and an 84 wRC+ in 394 plate appearances. Yes, he was clearly banged up over this last month of baseball, but the bat has just been bad for too long now, and his defense isn't good enough to make up for it anymore. Arenado has +2 outs above average this year, seventh among all third basemen and a huge drop from his value in 2024 and most years of his career.

Arenado has two years, $42 million remaining on his contract, but the Cardinals are on the hook for $37 million of that due to another $5 million payment from Colorado in 2026. For context, FanGraphs placed Arenado's production this year as worth $6 million in free agency, and he's set to be paid $22 million by the Cardinals next year and $15 million in 2027.

The Cardinals will have to eat a large chunk of his contract to get Arenado moved in a trade, and I'd be very surprised if it doesn't happen this offseason.

Sonny Gray also has a no-trade clause and is due $35 million in 2026 with a $30 million mutual option in 2027 that has a $5 million buyout. Gray's 4.38 ERA in 22 starts this year has been really disappointing, but there still are things under the hood that point to better days ahead, even if they aren't what he once was. Still, that's not enough to make up for the bad traditional numbers this year, especially as of late.

FanGraphs' dollar stat still thinks highly of Gray's value, though, putting his production so far this year at $22.8 million. So, for a team looking to acquire Gray, that $35 million will need to be paid down some, but not nearly as much as Arenado's deal does.

Gray has expressed a desire to remain in St. Louis up until this point, so if he states that again this offseason, the Cardinals won't be able to move him anyway. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Gray, in the final year of that contract, be open to pitching for a contender instead of this rebuilding club.