4 Rule 5 candidates the Cardinals should add to the 40-man roster

Every December, Major League Baseball holds a Rule 5 Draft. The rules for eligibility are quite simple, actually.

For players who were signed at age 18 or younger, they need to be added to their club's 40-man roster within five seasons or they're eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players signed at age 19 or older must be protected within four seasons. For those players who aren't protected, they become eligible in the Rule 5 Draft. Players chosen in this draft must be added to their new team's 26-man roster or their rights will revert back to their previous team.

MLB teams use the Rule 5 Draft for a variety of reasons; some players, including Ryan Pressly, Anthony Santander, and Garrett Whitlock most recently, pan out to be All-Star players. The St. Louis Cardinals chose Ryan Fernandez from the Boston Red Sox last year, and he ended up throwing 66.2 innings with a 3.51 ERA for St. Louis this year.

In order to protect their players, an organization must add Rule 5 eligible players to their roster prior to the draft in December. In order to protect a player, he must be added to his team's 40-man roster.

At the end of the 2024 season, the Cardinals had 41 players on their 40-man roster, two of whom -- Keynan Middleton and Drew Rom -- were on the 60-day Injured List, therefore removing them from the roster. That left the team's total at 39 players. At least three players will depart via free agency this winter in Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, and Andrew Kittredge. That total rose to six after the Cardinals declined their club options on Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Keynan Middleton.

It could rise even more if the team traded veterans like Ryan Helsley, Nolan Arenado, Erick Fedde, Steven Matz, or Miles Mikolas for prospects. Other players currently on the 40-man roster such as Ryan Loutos, Jose Fermin, Chris Roycroft, and Kyle Leahy could be cut, thus opening more spots.

That could be 10 open spots on the 40-man roster this winter prior to any free-agent acquisitions. It's unlikely the number gets that high, so we'll assume there will be six open spots this winter. By my count, there are 48 Rule 5 eligible players in the Cardinals' organization. Several of those players will be released and available to be plucked by another organization. The minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft is where most of the transactions involving these players will occur.

However, there are some interesting candidates to be added to the 40-man roster for protection purposes this winter.

These 4 Rule 5 eligible players should be added to the Cardinals' 40-man roster to protect them this year.

RHP Tink Hence

Tink Hence's story is somewhat similar to Roby's in the sense that injuries have hampered his ability to become the pitcher he was projected to be. Hence, unlike Roby, has been able to be extremely effective when healthy. The issue is that he has yet to throw more than 79.2 innings in any given season, and he's entering his fifth season as a professional baseball player.

Hence started off 2024 with a bang; he pitched all of 2024 in Double-A Springfield, and he struck out 12.31 batters per nine innings this year for a 34.1% K rate. He also walked just 8.1% of all batters he faced. However, injuries once again caught up to Tink, and he missed about a month with a hamstring injury in the middle of the year. He was able to finish the year with the Springfield Cardinals, so there's hope that a fully healthy offseason will set him up for success in 2025.

Upon his return, Hence was unable to throw more than four innings due to fear of re-aggravating his leg. He finished 2024 with a 2.71 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 79.2 innings. The organization's #2 prospect is one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in baseball, but he has not been able to be healthy enough to prove his worth.

The Cardinals will absolutely add Hence to the 40-man roster this offseason. If one of the organization's best pitching prospects can stay healthy, there's even a chance Hence makes his debut in one way or another in 2025, especially considering the fact that the organization has been open about its desire to go young next year. It's not a matter of if Hence will be added to the roster. What matters most is his health and when he will see major-league innings.

RHP Matt Svanson

The Cardinals received pitcher Matt Svanson when they traded Paul DeJong in 2023 to the Toronto Blue Jays. Svanson has been utilized solely as a reliever since joining the Cardinals' organization.

He hit his stride in 2024, as he finished with a 2.69 ERA in 53 games across 63.2 innings. Svanson also led all of Double-A with 27 saves last year. He solidified himself as a reliable back-end reliever, something every organization is searching for in their bullpens.

What weakens Svanson's case to remain on the roster would be his weak underlying numbers. He struck out only 8.3 batters last year, and his 1.461 WHIP indicated some trouble with walks and hits; he walked 3.5 batters per nine innings last year. An inability to strike out batters at a high rate paired with a propensity to give up free passes typically doesn't bode well for a reliever.

The Cardinals opted to send Svanson to the Arizona Fall League. Through seven games, Svanson has a 5.87 ERA in only 7.2 innings. However, he's struck out 15 batters in that span. Svanson has also walked only two batters in Arizona; he's allowed nine hits in total. If the organization was hoping to see him improve his strikeout numbers, he's done just that in limited time at the Arizona Fall League.

With so few spots available on the 40-man roster, Matt Svanson may get squeezed out of a spot in 2024. This would make him eligible to be drafted by another team by the time the Winter Meetings come around. While he could be a player the team will regret losing, leaving a 40-man spot open for a free-agent reliever who has proven himself in the majors may benefit the team more.