4 non-tendered free-agent targets for "resetting" Cardinals

When the non-tender deadline hit in late November, the St. Louis Cardinals only made one move, choosing to send injured RHP Adam Kloffenstein to free agency. Other teams around the league had more difficult decisions to make and cut ties with some interesting names that the Cardinals should consider as they round out their 40-man roster going into a transition stage of 2025.

Despite being in a reset stage, the Cardinals still have roster voids to fill and rather doing so with limited-ceiling players, there were four players in particular who could become assets to this year's team.

Griffin Canning (28 years old, previously with LA Angels/Atlanta Braves)

The first pitcher on the list was one of the more surprising names that is now looking for a new home. Right-hander Griffin Canning hits the open market after being non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves, despite the Braves just trading for him in a deal involving Jorge Soler less than a month prior. After a mediocre 5 seasons with the Angels, the former 2nd round pick will look to build off of a 2024 season that saw Canning take the ball for 31 starts and tally over 170 innings.

Unfortunately for Canning, his results fell in line with the Angels' disappointing season as he went 6-13 with a 5.19 ERA and an 81 ERA+. His peripherals told a similar story showing an almost equivalent FIP, a 1.39 WHIP, and too-high walk (3.5 BB/9) numbers when compared to his strikeout rate (6.8 K/9).

With numbers like that, what makes Canning a potential target for the 2025 Cardinals? For one, the Cardinals need innings from major-league capable starters. Despite the continuously rising cost of free agent pitching, St. Louis decided to let Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson test the free agent market. While these two may not be a fit for a team in a reset year, they did combine for almost 300 innings in over 50 starts last year. Enter Canning to fill half of those holes in a cost-effective manner.

Canning made $2.6 million in 2024, before entering his last year of arbitration. With the above moves saving over $20 million in payroll, if Canning could replicate his 2024 usage, he could be a steal with potential for a longer term stay in St. Louis.

Prior to 2024, Canning averaged a strikeout per inning, with his 2023 season seeing a career-high 9.85 K/9 in his first year back after missing the previous season with a low back stress fracture. The fringe top-100 prospect showed strikeout potential at every stop in the minors, leading to belief that his 2024 season could be seen as an anomaly for a pitcher in his first full season.

When comparing 2023 to 2024, it's fair to argue that Canning felt the wear and tear of a full season, cracking 100 innings for just the second time and flying by his previous career high in innings. His Baseball Savant page shows his average fastball velocity nearing 95mph in 2023 before dropping to 93mph this past season. Along with the decreased velocity, Canning saw a massive decrease in strikeout rate (25.9% to 17.6%) to go with a 9% walk rate.

Since missing the 2022 season, Canning has shown the ability to take the ball for a starter's load of innings and, if he can revert back to his previous peripherals, he could once again be the mid-rotation arm he was projected. With the pitching market seeing arms like Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Matthew Boyd all making $15 million or more next season, Canning could become a great value.