3 pitchers the Cardinals should aggressively target this offseason

Dylan Cease

The Cardinals are in a familiar spot. Searching for a front-line starting pitcher, one name stands out: Dylan Cease. The San Diego Padres right-hander is in the final year of his contract and represents a high-upside gamble that could finally solve St. Louis’ rotation woes.

Cease is a true swing-and-miss pitcher, not a ground-ball guy. He built his reputation on a dominant slider and a high strikeout rate, evidenced by his Cy Young runner-up season in 2022. While his command has been inconsistent, the underlying numbers suggest he's better than his ERA, making him a tantalizing project for a new pitching coach. Cease’s value comes from missing bats, and the Cardinals are moving in that direction as quickly as possible. He brings a durable arm, ranking seventh among pitchers in innings pitched since 2021.

There have been constant rumors about the Cardinals kicking the tires on a trade for Cease, even going back to his White Sox days. They have always balked at which players they would have to give up. That is no longer an issue. 

The question for St. Louis is the money. While the Cardinals currently have ace Sonny Gray under a three-year, $75 million deal with a back-loaded structure, a Cease contract would be a bit more. Gray’s average annual value is $25 million, but analysts project Cease, five years younger, will command a deal in the neighborhood of five to six years and a whopping $150-$200 million. That would place his annual salary somewhere between $30 and $40 million. With the organization’s biggest need being a legitimate ace, making a big splash for a durable, high-strikeout arm like Cease could be the perfect move to get the Redbirds back in the NL Central fight.

This works for the Cardinals because they only have one more year of Gray’s salary on the books. They have an option in 2027. With one more year of seasoning, one of the young prospects should be able to take Gray’s place in the rotation.