3 concerning signs with the Cardinals rotation, and 1 saving grace

The St. Louis Cardinals are off to a hot start to the 2026 season, but if their rotation doesn't start having better results soon, it's hard to imagine them keeping up their winning ways.

With a record of 12-8, the Cardinals have been able to squeeze out wins depite their poor pitching in both the rotation and most of their bullpen, but not only is that an unsustainale way to win, but the club also needs to be aware that there are further warning signs regarding their rotation that could point to it's demise.

It's early in the season, so there is plenty of time for that five-man group to get things going, but for now, there are concerning trends the Cardinals need to monitor to avoid failure this year.

These 3 warning signs should have the Cardinals nervous about their rotation production

#1 The expected numbers aren't pretty

At the end of the day, actual results are what impacts the game on the field. But when trying to forecast how players will perform over the course of the season, expected metrics can tell you a lot.

And boy, they do not favor the Cardinals rotation right now.

Going into action on Saturday, the rotation had a 4.69 ERA, which ranks 26th in baseball, and the group had only covered 96 innings, 20th among all teams. But the expected numbers are even worse.

The Cardinals' five-man group currently has a 5.74 xERA (29th), 4.83 SIERA (29th), 5.08 FIP (28th), and 4.74 xFIP (28th), each of those numbers pointing to what the numbers say the Cardinals starters should be allowing currently. Oh, and all while allowing a close to league average .288 BABIP.

I remember last season pointing to how Erick Fedde's ERA was not sustainable prior to his blow up starts. People may have forgotten, but through his first 15 starts in 2025, Fedde posted a 3.54 ERA, the best in the Cardinals rotation to that point. But Fedde's 5.07 xFIP (72nd) and 5.15 xERA (68th) both ranked among the worst qualified starters in baseball.

Different situations, but the point here is that expected numbers can often times be predictive of what is to come for a player. Sometimes that's not true, but often times they do reveal what a larger sample size will bearout. And right now, the expected numbers say the Cardinals' rotation could performe even worse.

#2 Defense is making a massive impact right now

The Cardinals defense is grading out as one of the best in baseball to start the year, much like it did in 2025. Last year, the Cardinals' defense put up incredible outs above average numbers early in the year, and while the defense did still finish as the best in the league, it did slow down a bit as the year went on.

Now, hopefully the Cardinals defense can continue to play at a high level as the season goes on, but relying on that unit to be a step above even the second or third best defenses in the game is asking a lot. Any regression we see from the defense is going to negatively impact this staff that relies on getting outs on balls in play.

#3 Reinforcements are thin

While the rotation's current performance is certainly concerning, the lack of rotation depth right now makes it difficult to imagine the Cardinals making changes any time soon.

Richard Fitts just had season ending surgery, removing a clear option for the big league staff, and while Hunter Dobbins looks crisp on his rehab assignment, there's aren't many options behind him.

Quinn Mathews is struggling with his command at Memphis, and while hopefully he's ready at some point this year, they need to remain patient with him. Brycen Mautz is still getting his feet wet in Triple-A, so I don't imagine they'd like to rush him up either. The Cardinals are really just an injury or two away from Bruce Zimmerman being the next man up.

Had the Cardinals had a few more options or not had injuries to guys like Fitts, Tekoah Roby, and Cooper Hjerpe, then the Cardinals could fall back on different options if these struggles could continue. But for now, it seems like they need to ride things out.

The Cardinals rotation's saving grace is that some positive regression should also be coming

I promise this isn't talking out of both sides of my mouth. While there are plenty of reasons to believe there is negative regression coming for the Cardinals' pitching staff, there is one key stat that should, in theory, get better as the season goes on.

Nate Schwartz from Pitcher List found this really interesting tidbit the other day. Since 2000, the Cardinals starting pitchers have produced the second lowest swinging strike percentage compared to all other rotations since then. When opposing teams are swinging, they are almost always making contact.

I'm not trying to convince anyone this rotation will magically become good at this, but what Schwartz illustrated here is that they are currently historically bad at missing bats, and it feels unlikely that they will stay that bad the rest of the year. This is not a swing-and-miss kind of group, but it doens't seem to be this bad at it either.

Even small improvements in this will likely help their results out a fair bit, which is why even though they are due for even worse results right now, there is reason to believe they also have some better performances in the tank as well.

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