3 Cardinals whose trade value has risen, 2 who've seen it plummet to start the season

Dating back to the St. Louis Cardinals' end-of-season press conference last fall, the expectation was that the club would be trading away multiple players from the Major League roster to "reset" for the future. That did not happen.

You've heard the story countless times already, so I won't rehash it for you. Every player who was rumored to be on the trade block is still in St. Louis, and their lone free-agent addition of the offseason came toward the end of spring training in Phil Maton.

As the month of May begins, the Cardinals are three games below .500 with a 14-17 record and four games back of the National League Central lead. There is plenty of time for them to establish themselves as a threat in the playoff race this year, but I think most people expect them to be sellers come July (or at least believe they should be).

Because of that, I think it is worth taking a look at five players who could be dealt at the deadline this year and whether their trade value has gone up or down since the season began. I will only be focusing on players that seem like sure bets to be on the block if they sell at the deadline, so I did not include young members of their core like Brendan Donovan or Lars Nootbaar, and I also did not include veterans like Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray who have no-trade clauses and have stated they would like to stay in St. Louis. Sure, that could change, but for now, let's focus on the five players who could actually be on the move.

3 Cardinals who have seen their trade value rise, 2 who have seen their trade value fall since the 2025 season began

Nolan Arenado's trade value has risen

One player the Cardinals did aggressively shop this offseason was third baseman Nolan Arenado, who, when approached by the front office this past offseason about a potential trade, stated that he would be open to a move, but only to a select group of teams.

The Cardinals did have a trade in place with the Houston Astros, but their trade of Kyle Tucker days prior and the reality that they would be letting Alex Bregman walk in free agency caused Arenado to get cold feet. The Boston Red Sox were a serious suitor, but once they signed Bregman, they were off the table. The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres were other clubs that Arenado wanted to play for, but nothing materialized with those teams.

Coming off a down year in 2024 and a rough end to his 2023 campaign, Arenado wasn't exactly the most desirable trade asset on the market. Yes, he's likely a future Hall of Famer and still played great defense at the hot corner, but he had gone from a true middle of the order bat to basically league average with little power in his bat, and that did not sit well with teams who would be taking on a signifcant portion of his remaining salary.

While the Cardinals continued to be open to a potential trade of Arenado all the way through camp, once it became clear that he would be starting the 2025 season with the Cardinals, the best possible outcome for both sides was a bounce-back season from Arenado, and so far, he appears to be having one.

No, he's not his old self, but Arenado has seen a significant uptick in his OBP, SLG, wOBS, wRC+, BB%, and ISO, and is on pace for the highest fWAR he has had since 2022, all while also striking out less than he has in his entire career at just 6.8%.

If Arenado keeps up this pace for the next two months, the Cardinals are going to have a lot of suitors come July who would like to add Arenado's services. No, they won't get a top prospect in return at this rate, but I actually do think he has shown enough so far that, if this trend continues, he will bring in more value than he would have before.

On top of that, there seems to be an even greater need from some of those teams that were on his "list" than there was this offseason. Max Muncy has been bad for the Dodgers, third base is by far the weakest position in the Yankees' lineup, and the Padres could really use a boost to their lineup.

I do think the Cardinals will have a better chance of pulling off a deal with a team from his list come July, and maybe he'll even expand that further to other teams that are contending late into the summer. But for now, the thing that matters the most is that Arenado looks a lot better this year, and that is essential for driving trade interest.