3 Cardinals who could experience positive regression and 3 who will start to struggle

One of the traps that baseball fans often fall into early in the season is putting too much stock into statistics. Baseball is a game of streaks and inches, and with the 2026 season still only three weeks old, small sample sizes abound.

For some players, these small sample sizes are where they thrive; a hot streak that started in early April can carry a player's back-of-the-baseball-card stats for quite a while. Alternatively, an early season slump could drain a player's stats.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been toiling so far this year; they've won three of their first five series, but they are sitting right around .500 to start the year. The offense has been sporadic at best, and the pitching has rightly given fans worry. At least the defensive output has been positive for the Cardinals.

Given the unreliability of small sample sizes in baseball, fans should expect both positive and negative regression from various players on the Cardinals. Only time will tell, but we can begin to decipher whose early season output leaves more to be desired or who is playing over their skiis.

Here are 3 St. Louis Cardinals who are playing over their skis and 3 who we should expect to get hot soon.

Positive Regression - 1B Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson won the Silver Slugger Award for all utility players in the National League last year. His offensive output shouldn't surprise anyone.

Burly is slashing a respectable ..279/.375/.412 this year with two home runs, 14 RBIs, and a 124 wRC+. That's a very strong offensive player through only 186 games. What's interesting is that Burleson could be even better than his numbers have suggested so far.

Every one of Alec Burleson's major offensive statistics has better "expected" figures than real figures. His expected slugging percentage is .616! Baseball Savant gives him one more home run than his current two long balls based on park adjustments throughout baseball. His long fly ball at Busch Stadium on Monday night that was hit 96.9 MPH with an exit velocity of 103.4 would have been a home run in 25 out of 30 parks. Unfortunately, Busch Stadium held it in.

Burleson is also learning first base on the fly for the most part this year. He logged 606.1 innings at first base prior to this season. He's exclusively played first this year. So far, Burleson is a negative defender according to Outs Above Average (-2 OAA) and Fielding Run Value (-1 FRV). Defensive Runs Saved has him as a slightly above-average defender (+1 DRS). There's still plenty of room for growth on the defensive side for Burly.

Burleson has been consistently placed in the three-hole in Oli Marmol's lineups. He's been able to be a very productive hitter thus far, but there is clear room for growth. He's still adjusting to first base defensively, but there's reason to believe that he will continue to improve throughout the 2026 season. If he can inch closer toward his expected stats while developing defensively, there's an outside chance that Burly is considered the best first baseman in the National League this year.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow