2027 draft stud who slipped through Cardinals' grasp could hauntingly resemble story of future Hall of Famer

Infielder Brendan Lawson might be the St. Louis Cardinals' next version of Max Scherzer. Before you rush to message me about the fact that Scherzer wasn't a Cardinal or that Lawson is decidedly not a pitcher like Scherzer is, hear me out. The Cardinals selected Lawson out of high school in the 19th round of of the 2024 draft, but he declined to sign with St. Louis, as he had already committed to the University of Florida. It was a wise choice, as the sophomore is hitting .320 with a 1.229 OPS and 18 home runs in 178 at-bats. According to Baseball America, Lawson is, at this point, among the favorites to go No. 1 overall in the 2027 draft.

So how does Scherzer fit into this? I'm glad you asked. Scherzer was a player from the Cardinals' backyard, a pitcher from Chesterfield, Missouri's Parkway Central High School, and St. Louis took a flier on him in the now-nonexistent 43rd round of the 2003 amateur draft. However, the heterochromatic hurler opted to take his game to the University of Missouri, where he held a 2.40 ERA in 206.1 innings, and the Arizona Diamondbacks pounced on him in the 2006 draft, taking him 11th overall.

Fans shouldn't fault the Cardinals for their inability to sign Scherzer, who has crafted a career worthy of Cooperstown, nor should they blame the team for not agreeing to terms with Lawson. It was always going to be a long shot that Baseball America's 132nd-ranked draft prospect in 2024 would have agreed to a deal with the Cardinals as the 561st overall pick, even if the offered money was significantly over the draft slot. Every team knew Lawson was likely to honor his commitment to Florida; if they hadn't, someone would have snagged him much earlier.

Still, there are lamentations abound for the Cardinals and Scherzer's failure to agree to a contract, and while the Canadian Lawson doesn't have the local story to fall back on, Cardinals fans won't forget Lawson's decision to spurn the team if he winds up as the player his elite exit velocity and plate discipline suggest he could become.

Two other former Cardinals picks are now moderate prospects in the 2026 draft

Lawson is deservedly the highlight of the potential future stars with whom the Cardinals couldn't come to terms, but the 2026 draft has a couple of top 300 prospects who also opted to forgo St. Louis for the college life. Cameron Johnson, a left-handed pitcher at the University of Oklahoma, was the team's 20th-round pick in 2023 and now ranks 179th in Baseball America's top 500 2026 draft prospects list and 166th in MLB Pipeline. Johnson has battled control woes while in college, walking 42 batters in 53.2 innings so far in 2026, but he retains a 99 mph fastball, and his low release height still gives many lefty hitters fits.

The other one-time Cardinals selection who could see his name called in July is right-handed pitcher Gavin Van Kempen, another player whom the Cardinals plucked in the 20th and final round of the draft, this time in 2022. Van Kempen pitched for three seasons at West Virginia University and is now a senior at East Carolina, where the massive 6-foot-7 specimen throws a fastball that touches 95 mph with plenty of ride, and he also holds a cutter, slider, curveball and splitter. Baseball America placed him at No. 273 in the 2026 draft prospect list.

If Lawson tramples over the minor leagues and emerges as a major league star with another team, the Cardinals will likely be relegated to a footnote in his story much as they are in Scherzer's, or the then-Oakland Athletics in a potential biography of New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge. But it's not something fans should hang their heads over; even with the constant evolution of scouting and analytics, the ability to forecast how high school players will develop in college is far from an exact science. The Cardinals can't predict the future — not even under Chaim Bloom.

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