Cardinals Rumors: 3 pros and cons of signing Carlos Rodon

The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly the “mystery team” after Carlos Rodon, so what would be the pros and cons of such a signing?

Most of the St. Louis Cardinals fanbase expected the team to be rather quiet in free agency the rest of the off-season after signing catcher Willson Contreras to a 5-year, $87.5 million deal at the end of the Winter Meetings. The Cardinals have had a reported “budget ceiling” of $180-$185 million this off-season, but the club “could go over” if it was for the right player. The Cardinals currently sit at approximately $182 million in payroll for 2023, making another major signing unlikely.

And yet, there remains hope, as the “right player” may be emerging in the form of left-handed starting pitcher Carlos Rodon, as Jon Heyman reported that the Cardinals are believed to be the “mystery team” after Rodon.

First, as always, take reports like this with a grain of salt until it is being confirmed by other industry insiders. I know Heyman had a slip up recently with the Aaron Judge news, but he was one of the first people to report how serious the Cardinals were with Contreras, which ended up happening.

Second, just because the Cardinals are in on Rodon, does not mean they will get him. At least two other teams are talking with Rodon right now in the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees, and both teams could outbid the Cardinals if they want to.

It is very telling though that the Cardinals would have any interest in spending significant money after bringing in Contreras. Aside from the reported interest in Rodon, John Mozeliak has not shot down the idea of spending more resources if they want to.

Of course Mozeliak is going to shoot down rumors on Twitter, even if they are true. But again, he indicates a willingness to spend, which very well could end up being Carlos Rodon.

Let’s look at three pros and three cons of a potential Rodon signing for the St. Louis Cardinals if they go down that route. There are some potential pros and cons that are not being talked about at the moment that could be very interesting, depending on which side you land on.

Con #1 – Major injury concerns with Carlos Rodon

The tricky part about investing in any starting pitcher is their risk for injury. Even the “healthiest” of starting pitchers tend to deal with ailments, and most have one or more significant injuries in their career. But there are some starters that carry more injury risk than others, and Rodon is one of them.

Before 2022, Rodon had thrown 160 innings just once in his career, and has been subject to multiple smaller and more significant injuries through the course of his 8-year career. Rodon just turned 30-years old, and giving him a lucrative, long-term deal carries a ton of risk.

Last off-season was evidence of this, as coming off a Cy Young worthy season and being just 29-years old, Rodon could only secure a 2-year, $44 million deal with the Giants with an opt-out built in. Although Rodon was able to repeat his success from the year before and throw more innings, every club still knows how much risky you will be carrying with this kind of contract.

An interesting comparison to consider is Washington Nationals’ starter Stephen Strasburg, who after battling injuries throughout his early career, put together an elite run for the Nationals and earned himself a 7-year, $245 million deal with the Nationals after the 2019 season. Since then, Strasburg has thrown just 31.1 innings and is one of the worst contracts in baseball.

This is not to say that Rodon would become that, but his shaky injury history makes that a very real possibility for the ace. Although he won’t sign for quite as much as Strasburg did, his deal will be in the ballpark of that, which we’ll look at here in a bit.

Pro #2 – The Cardinals can then trade a starter for prospects or big league talent

One of the smartest ways to build a roster is by signing players and then capitalizing on the value on any current players that are now expendable. The Cardinals could fill their biggest need by signing Rodon, and then cashing in on the value of one of their other starters to strengthen their farm system or bolster another area of their roster.

You may think that would be odd, but it actually seems like a pretty likely outcome if the Cardinals were to sign Rodon. The prime candidate for this kind of trade would be Jordan Montgomery, as he is set to make $10 million this year (so they can shed some salary) and likely holds more value than a Miles Mikolas would. The Cardinals will not be trading Adam Wainwright or Jack Flaherty, and Steven Matz is the only current starter they have control over after 2023.

If the Cardinals sign Rodon and flip Montgomery, they’d still have a rotation of Rodon, Flaherty, Mikolas, Wainwright, and Matz, which is significantly better than the one they have now. If injuries happen, they can trade for starters during the season, which they have been very successful at in recent seasons.

Montgomery could be the guy that nets the Cardinals a few relievers to strengthen their bullpen, or even another bat for their lineup. They may be able to get a “lesser” starter who is under team control for longer than Montgomery, giving them another option for 2024 and beyond. Or, the club could get back a few prospects, giving them more ammunition for upcoming trades to improve the roster, or just young talent to look forward to as many of their best are starting to hit the big leagues.

This is not being talked about much, but is a major pro of any Rodon signing. Bringing in the left-hander could lead to a move that is unexpected right now, but would make all of the sense in the world with Rodon on the roster.

Con #2 – The size of contract that Carlos Rodon wants

There are two words that front offices hate the sound of during the off-season: Scott Boras.

The infamous agent represents many of the game’s biggest stars, and is known for his ability to squeeze every single dollar of value possible out of the deals he net’s his clients. Unfortunately for St. Louis, one of his clients happens to be Carlos Rodon.

Assuming Heyman’s report of the Cardinals being players for Rodon is correct, its likely Boras and the rest of Rodon’s camp wanted that information out there, in hopes that it would drive up the bidding between the Yankees, Giants, and the Cardinals. Boras clients are about getting maximum value from whichever team will offer it, meaning the Cardinals will have to submit a large offer to get any deal done.

Reports indicate that the lefty is seeking a seven-year deal, and likely an AAV in the $25 million-$30 million range. This is a hefty price to pay for someone who had injury concerns and would be signed through their age-37 season. While it may seem like an awesome idea right now, this contract could end up turning out very poorly.

I asked Cardinals fans on Twitter whether or not they’d sign Rodon to a seven-year, $200 million deal on Sunday, and over 60% of fans said they would give him that contract. I don’t blame anyone for being willing to do that, but if you vote “yes” to a deal like that now, you need to be ready to stand by that deal later if it goes poorly. Most fans will turn around and blame the front office when deals like that go poorly, even if they wanted it.

This kind of contract really ties down the Cardinals payroll for the foreseeable future as well, as they’d have $25 million+ a year committed to three different players and $17.5 million going to Contreras. If you believe this upgrade is worth taking the Cardinals out of other future moves, than it makes a lot of sense. But there are some really, really good options on the horizon for St. Louis (more on that later).

Pro #3 – Carlos Rodon helps fill out the Cardinals 2024 rotation

While it’s not essential that the Cardinals fill out their 2024 rotation over the course of this off-season, it should add appeal for any multi-year contract they would give to a starting pitcher this off-season.

Out of the Cardinals projected five-man rotation, the only player set to return in 2024 is Steven Matz. Bringing in Carlos Rodon gives them two established options after the 2023 season, and then the club can choose to add more pitching, resign and of their impending free agents, or trust some young guys like Matthew Liberatore, Gordon Graceffo, or Connor Thomas. There is a good chance they would do a mix of all three.

Sure, the Cardinals can address their 2024 rotation at a later date, but it does dramatically change how the club operates in 2023 if they can bring some certainty to their team beyond next season. It’s hard to make immediate term moves when there is such a gaping hole awaiting the club next season, so help alleviate some of that stress by bringing in an impact arm for this season and seasons to come.

Con #3 – The Cardinals would take themselves out of the stacked 2023-2024 pitching market

All things considered, Carlos Rodon is a great pitcher and would be a great add for the Cardinals in 2023. If the Cardinals choose to make Rodon their guy, it does benefit them for 2023, but it may prevent them from making an even better decision come next off-season.

The 2023-2024 starting pitching market is stacked. While this off-season’s headliners where Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Rodon, it’s hard to narrow down the long list of names next off-season. The headliners are Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, Lucas Giolito, and Yu Darvish. On top of all those names, guys like Jack Flaherty, Tyler Mahle, Frankie Montas, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Luis Severino are all fantastic options as well. Oh, and did I mention Lance Lynn, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Alex Wood, Charlie Morton? Not to mention guys who could be on the trade market like Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, and Pablo Lopez.

The point is, the Cardinals would handcuff themselves to Rodon if they choose him now, which could be a great thing or could keep them wishing they had waited. The market for Rodon is extremely competitive right now as he’s far and away the best arm available. But in a class of free agents where there are so many elite options, sure they’ll be a ton of teams interested, but the sure number of options should make them a hair more affordable.

Here is what I would propose. If the Cardinals held off on Rodon, they could be extremely aggressive at the trade deadline, and acquire a front-line starting pitcher either for the stretch run or one with control beyond 2023. Then, the Cardinals would still be able to spend big on their preferred starter next off-season, while giving themselves a legit chance to win the World Series in 2023 if they traded for a starter down the stretch.

Any one of those names could end up being available in a trade if their team struggles, and names like Shane Bieber, Pablo Lopez, and Tyler Glasnow could also be available. I just think it would be wise for the Cardinals to be aggressive when their is not such a premium on the talent that is available.

Those are my pros and cons for signing Rodon this off-season. What are your thoughts? Comment below!