Cardinals: Trade targets after signing Willson Contreras

Pablo Lopez

The Miami Marlins right-hander Pablo Lopez has been talked about as a potential target for the St. Louis Cardinals since the middle of the 2022 season, and there is still buzz around baseball that the Marlins would like to upgrade their offense with a Lopez trade.

According to a recent report, the Minnesota Twins are talking the the Marlins about Lopez right now, further indicating that the Marlins are open to moving him if they get the right offer. The Cardinals are a team that could use Lopez badly, and have the assets that Miami would want in return.

Lopez went 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA in 180 innings for Miami last year, and was a borderline All-Star in the first half with a 2.86 ERA across his first 104 innings of work. Two factors seemed to be working against the 26-year old in the second half of 2022. First, that was by far his career high in innings, so it is understandable that Lopez would be shaky the first time he his an innings count like that. Second, the Marlins fell apart in the second half, so one has to wonder how he’d fair on a contender all year long.

The right-hander has the stuff to be a front-line starter for St. Louis, and is under team control through the 2024 season, giving them another arm to rely on past 2023 with 4 of their 5 starters set to hit free agency. While Lopez is a tier below the true aces in today’s game, he can still lead a rotation. His presence would also help St. Louis to be patient with the development of guys like Tink Hence and Gordon Graceffo, who could be those future front-line guys for the Cardinals.

Names like Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar would be top of the list for Miami, so the Cardinals will have to think long and hard about their desire for him.

Lucas Giolito

I’ve seen Cardinals fans float White Sox starter Dylan Cease out there as a trade option, but coming off of a Cy Young candidacy and multiple years of control still ahead of him, that seems like a long shot at best. And if fans saw the kind of package it would take to acquire him, I am sure most would balk at it anyways.

One one Cease’s teammates, Lucas Giolito, would be an intriguing option for the Cardinals, should they talk to the White Sox about a trade. Giolito was a  top prospect in baseball who struggled to be consistent at the major league level early on, but finished top 11 in AL Cy Young voting from 2019-2021.

The 28-year old had a down year in 2022, going 11-9 with a 4.90 ERA in 161.2 innings of work for a dysfunctional Chicago team. While his most recent season might not instill confidence in Cardinals fans, his recent track record indicates he would be the best starter in the Cardinals rotation.

Giolito is a strikeout pitcher, durable, and throws a lot of innings, things the Cardinals will value most in their attempt to bolster the rotation. Outside of the shortened COVID season, he has thrown at least 161.2 innings each season and made at least 29 starts per season as well. His career strikeouts per nine sits at 9.5, and has gotten as high as 12.1 K/9 during his best seasons.

Going into a contract season, Giolito would not fix the Cardinals need of more starters for their rotation beyond the 2023 season, but they may be able to catch a career year out of him while Giolito fights to prove himself for a massive contract in a stacked free agent pitching class. 

Liam Hendricks

With all of the talk about building upon the Cardinals starting rotation, another route they could decide to go is create an elite back end of their bullpen. The Chicago White Sox has discussed elite closer Liam Hendricks in trade talks this off-season, and would be a very interesting target for the Cardinals.

Hendricks, 33, has been an All-Star each of the last four seasons, posting a 2.26 ERA with 114 saves and 13.5 K/9 during that stretch, evening finishing top 10 in the Cy Young twice and 13th in MVP voting in 2020. Last season was a “down” year for the Sox’s closer, converting 37 of his 41 save opportunities with a 2.81 ERA.

The Cardinals already have Ryan Helsley, why add Hendricks? Think about that for a moment. If the Cardinals brought a lead into the 8th inning of any game, the game would practically be over for the opposing club. If you include how great Giovanny Gallegos has been as well, the Cardinals would just need to get through the first six innings of a game before their opponents chances of winning significantly decrease.

Hendricks is under contract for 2023 and has a $15 million club option for 2024, which is a bargain for the production he is having. Since the White Sox are looking to bounce back in 2023, they will want major league talent in return for Hendricks. The club has major question marks at second base, corner outfield, and designated hitter right now, which is exactly the surplus the Cardinals have available to them. Guys like Nolan Gorman, Tyler O’Neill, Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson, and Brendan Donovan could all be players that the White Sox are interested in.

Tyler Glasnow

Let me start by saying two things, first, I have been a huge supporter of the Cardinals trading for Tyler Glasnow since last December, and second, there are no indications that Glasnow is someone the Tampa Bay Rays would be willing to trade. All of that is just pure speculation at this point by the industry.

Glasnow signed an extension with the Rays to extend him through 2024, meaning the Rays could try and go on a run this year with Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, new signing Zach Eflin, and the rest of their deep pitching staff. They could look to trade Glasnow closer to the deadline once their needs emerge, hold onto him until next off-season, or even keep him through the 2024 deadline. Tampa Bay is so unpredictable.

Glasnow would be the perfect fit for the Cardinals, should he be someone the Rays want to trade. The 29-year old has a 2.66 ERA in 88 innings with a K/9 of 12.6 in 2021, looking like a Cy Young candidate before his Tommy John surgery. Glasnow returned for the Rays late in 2022, looking like his old self and even starting a playoff game for them.

There are concerns with Glasnow related to his injuries. Since debuting in 2016, the right-hander has only surpassed 100 innings one time, some of that is to blame with injuries, and others are to do with the COVID season and taking a bit to develop into the picture he is now. Glasnow also will not come cheap, requiring a strong package to acquire if the Rays ever choose to deal him.

So, you can remain hopeful like me that this could happen one day, but I would not cross my fingers or get antsy about it. Sometimes we want to wish things into existence that make a lot of sense, like a Cardinals-Rays trade that swaps young bats for Glasnow, but it does not appear like that is a real option right now, but very well could become one.

Paul Blackburn

Everyone knows the Cardinals lack a true ace on their staff right now, or at least one they can bank on. Jack Flaherty has shown he can be that in the past, and in a contract year, he may regain that form once again. With a lack of front-line pitching available on the trade market, the second best thing the Cardinals could do is add a starter who is under control past the 2023 season and be a really dependable arm for them.

One way they could accomplish this is by calling the Oakland Athletics to talk about Paul Blackburn. The Cardinals and Athletics got deep into negotiations for catcher Sean Murphy, so the club’s know each other well. There may not be a desire to renegotiate with one another at the moment, but Blackburn would be an interesting target for the Cardinals.

Blackburn was really good during the first half of the 2022 season, going 6-5 with a 3.62 ERA in 97 innings while being named to the American League All-Star team. His final numbers look a lot worse because he threw 14 horrible innings to begin the second half before being shut down with an injury after that.

The 29-year old is under team control through the 2025 season, giving the Cardinals another starter for their rotation beyond 2023, and another quality option in this coming season. With so most of the Cardinals projected starters next season having injury concerns, bringing in another guy would be a good idea. While we may all hope it’s a bigger name that Blackburn, I can see the club’s reasoning if a better deal is not out there.