Reflecting on the 2013 Cardinals’ top 30 prospects

The St. Louis Cardinals’ top 30 prospects from a decade ago show some sobering realities.

Prospects in baseball are unique, even for the St. Louis Cardinals. Unlike in other sports, where most draftees are immediately thrust into the limelight and left to sink or swim, young players in baseball are put on a developmental track to determine when and if they should be exposed to the major leagues. Because of this waiting period and the ability for fans to observe the progression of players as they ascend the minor league ladder, “prospect hype” can come into effect when a player starts dominating at all levels. Fans can become smitten with a player’s talents and deem him off-limits for other teams to take in speculative trades.

But something funny often happens amid this prospect hype: The hopes and dreams fans place on the unknown quantity of a player who hasn’t reached the major leagues can quickly dissipate if that player reaches the bigs and doesn’t immediately produce. Fans only need to look at Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore last year to see two highly touted prospects who struggled and lost a lot of their prospect sheen as a result, perhaps unjustly.

This is all to say that top prospect lists for baseball teams are little more than educated guesses on who will produce in the future, and fans are often too high on prospects before they debut and too low on them after they debut and struggle a bit.

The Cardinals’ top 30 prospects list on Baseball America a decade ago comprises some players who had or are still having decent careers, others who only tasted the major leagues for a bit, and several who never made it at all. With the 2023 top 30 around the corner, this is a good time to look back on the 2013 list and set your expectations to a more reasonable level.

30. Seth Blair (RHP)

The Cardinals took Seth Blair in the supplemental first round in 2010, but injuries and inconsistency derailed his career. From 2011 to 2014, he failed to record an ERA below 5 in levels ranging from Low-A to Triple-A. He was suspended before the Midwest League playoffs in 2011 and had lapses in his concentration when back on the mound, leading to problems with control and velocity. In 2012, it was revealed that Blair had a benign tumor in the knuckle of his right middle finger, leading to fractures and preventing him from pitching until July.

After 2014, Blair didn’t play for four years, but he gave it another go in 2019 and signed with the San Diego Padres, who assigned him to High-A. After COVID-19 wiped out the minor leagues’ 2020 season, the Boston Red Sox signed him and sent him to Double-A. There, he showed more success than at any other point in his career and received a promotion, but his issues returned after he signed with the Tampa Bay Rays organization. Blair is currently pitching for Aguilas de Mexicali in the Mexican Pacific Winter League.

29. Keith Butler (RHP)

A late-round draft pick out of Wabash Valley Junior College in 2009, Keith Butler rode a very good breaking ball to limit opponents to a .201 average in his first five years in the Cardinals’ system. His command was his bugaboo, as his 3.6 walk rate in the minors indicated before his 2013 promotion. It continued to hurt him in the majors, and he couldn’t record the strikeouts necessary to make up for it, as he had five walks and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings in 16 games that year.

Butler received a quick cup of coffee with the Cardinals in 2014 but only appeared in two games. The Cardinals removed him from the roster on Nov. 18, 2014, and he never reached the majors again, finishing his career with an underwhelming 6.12 ERA at Memphis.

28. Mike O’Neill (OF)

Mike O’Neill was the quintessential contact hitter, one who put the ball in play seemingly every at-bat and got on base. But with no power to speak of — he hit only four home runs in his 1,834 minor league at-bats — O’Neill’s game was predicated on singles. In 2012, he led the minor leagues in on-base percentage and was second in batting average, and his batting eye was elite. His average speed stretched him at center field, but his complete lack of pop made him difficult to slot into a corner outfield role.

In 2014, O’Neill’s numbers plummeted. He struck out more often and walked less often than in previous years (although his walk totals still outnumbered his strikeouts), and he hit a career-low .269. He never found his previous on-base success again: In Triple-A in 2015, O’Neill hit only .257, and the Chicago Cubs picked him in the Rule 5 draft. They released him before the season in 2016, and he played for the independent league New Jersey Jackals. O’Neill tried to catch on with the Detroit Tigers before the 2017 season, but he was released before Spring Training began.

27. Maikel Cleto (RHP)

The fastball was what propelled Maikel Cleto through the minor leagues, but his inability to develop a strong second pitch doomed him to the fringes of the major leagues. The New York Mets signed him as an international free agent in 2006, who traded him to the Seattle Mariners in 2008 in a three-team trade. The Mariners flipped Cleto to the Cardinals a day later in exchange for Brendan Ryan.

Cleto debuted with the Cardinals in 2011, pitching 4.1 innings and allowing an unsightly six earned runs and walking four batters. His scorching heat, which touched 102 mph, accompanied a max-effort delivery that put him in the bullpen quickly. He made a couple more appearances with St. Louis in 2012 and 2013, but he never produced good results: His career Cardinals ERA was 10.34 in 15.2 innings. He fared slightly better when the Chicago White Sox claimed him off waivers, and he made a career-high 28 appearances in 2014 and pitched to a 4.60 ERA.

Cleto spend the next eight years pitching in the Mexican League, where he found more of a niche, with an ERA of 2.44 in 107 innings. He was released before the beginning of the 2022 season.

26. John Gast (LHP)

Originally selected by the Texas Rangers in the fifth round out of high school in 2007, John Gast decided to undergo Tommy John surgery and go to college. It ended up hurting him, as the Cardinals took him in the sixth round in 2010. He went 6-0 with a 1.54 ERA in High-A.

Gast had a strong changeup and an outstanding pickoff move that took him to the highest level when he debuted in the major leagues in 2013, but he only made it through two games before a shoulder injury that originally sidelined him in 2012 cost him the rest of 2013 and some of 2014 after he had surgery on a muscle that had detached.

Gast wasn’t able to rediscover his success when he returned from injury. His last fully healthy season had been in 2011, and his 5.03 ERA in Triple-A in 2015 led him to hang up the cleats in January 2016.

25. Tim Cooney (LHP)

Tim Cooney’s first major league appearance was in replacement of an injured Adam Wainwright. Unfortunately, Cooney was unable to craft the sort of legacy Wainwright has. A Cardinals third-round pick in 2012, Cooney rocketed up the minor league ladder thanks to injuries at higher levels, and he proved he belonged, owning an ERA of 3.47 in his first year at Triple-A and shaving it to 2.74 in his second go-around in 2015.

Cooney pitched part of 2015 and displayed strong control, his hallmark since his college days, but he missed the rest of the season after an appendectomy in July. The Cardinals hoped he could make the rotation in 2016, but a shoulder injury in Spring Training eventually led to surgery and a missed season. The Cleveland Indians claimed Cooney off waivers after the 2016 season, but injuries hit again and limited him to four Rookie league games. He was released in November 2017 and never caught on with another team.

24. Jorge Rondon (RHP)

A flamethrower in the mold of several other Cardinals prospects at this time, Rondon averaged 95 mph with his fastball in 2012. It was a slow rise through the system: He debuted with the Rookie league team in 2006 and reached Memphis in 2012 after seeming to figure something out that year. He had a 3.44 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 34 innings with Double-A Springfield and eventually served as the team’s closer.

Rondon only pitched in one game for the Cardinals, which was in 2014, going one inning and walking a batter. The Colorado Rockies claimed him off waivers on Nov. 3, 2014, and he was annihilated in two games with them; his nadir involved him giving up five hits and seven earned runs without recording an out in a game against the San Diego Padres.

Rondon proceeded to play for a few other teams, receiving scant major league time. After the Chicago White Sox released him, Rondon signed with Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball. He spent 2021 and 2022 in the Mexican League.

23. Seth Maness (RHP)

Seth Maness was a low-risk signing in the 11th round as a college senior. He boasted keen control, going 42 innings in High-A Palm Beach before walking a batter, and he led the minor leagues in 2012 with 0.5 walks per nine innings. The Cardinals were having issues with their bullpen to begin the 2013 season, and Maness received a promotion to the major leagues on April 29.

After respectable 2014 and 2015 seasons that saw Maness pitch 143.2 innings to a 3.51 ERA and walk only 24 batters, he underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-2016, and the Cardinals non-tendered him after the season. He signed with the Kansas City Royals before 2017 and spent most of the season in the minor leagues, where he had a bloated 6.13 ERA.

The Royals released Maness in May 2018, and he signed with the independent league High Point Rockers, with whom he only pitched in one game before the Texas Rangers purchased his contract and assigned him to Triple-A. He was named a league All-Star, but after becoming a free agent after the season, he retired. Maness is currently working as a coach at Florida State University.

22. Sam Freeman (LHP)

An athletic two-way player at North Central Texas Community College, Sam Freeman transferred to the University of Kansas in 2008 and became a full-time pitcher. The Cardinals took him in the 24th round in the 2007 draft, and he rose quickly, reaching Double-A in his first full season and holding his own with a 3.03 ERA.

After Tommy John surgery in 2010 that sidelined him for almost two years, Freeman debuted in the major leagues. Never a command artist, Freeman still managed to overpower hitters with his 95 mph fastball despite his diminutive 5-foot-11 stature. In 2014, he appeared in 44 games and had a 2.61 ERA. Before the 2015 season, the Cardinals traded him to the Texas Rangers for a player to be named later.

Freeman’s best season was in 2017 with the Atlanta Braves, where his ERA was 2.55 in 60 innings and he had a career-low 4.1 walks per nine innings. He couldn’t replicate that success the next year, and he had stints with the Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals before pitching for the Kansas City Royals’ Triple-A organization in 2022 before his release in August.

21. Eric Fornatero (RHP)

2008 sixth-round pick Eric Fornatero was a bit old for a prospect when he jumped on the map at age 24, as his numbers in the minor league rotation were fairly pedestrian. When he was converted to the bullpen in 2012, he found more success, as a 2.39 ERA in 67.2 innings in 2012 illustrated. Fornatero was promoted to Memphis, where he had trouble in his first go-around but righted the ship in 2014 to earn a cup of coffee with the Cardinals.

Fornatero was a fireballer who could hit 99 mph and complemented that with a power curveball, but his eight games in the major leagues would prove to be his peak, as his stuff didn’t match up to hitters at the highest level, achieving only three strikeouts in 9.2 innings.

After his brief tenure with the big league club, the Washington Nationals claimed him off waivers, but his numbers never reached his minor league heights. He closed out his career in the Atlantic League in 2016.

20. Steve Bean (C)

The Cardinals’ supplemental first-round pick in 2012, Steve Bean was an apt defensive catcher but was never able to hit enough to rise above High-A. In his first two minor league seasons, Bean threw out 41% of runners attempting to steal and had soft hands behind the plate, but from Rookie league to High-A, he hit a paltry .216 in 1,087 at-bats.

The Cardinals released Bean before the 2017 season, and the San Diego Padres promptly scooped him up. But he only played in three minor league games with them before being released.

Bean has remained in the baseball business after his career, working as an agent for young players and an adviser to those who are expected to be drafted in the future.

19. Charlie Tilson (OF)

Charlie Tilson was a speedy center fielder taken in the second round of the 2011 draft. A separated shoulder and torn labrum while attempting a diving catch in Spring Training caused him   to miss the 2012 minor league season, but he showed no ill effects upon returning in 2013, hitting .303 with Low-A Peoria and improving to .308 in High-A. Power was never a part of his game, as he hit only four home runs in Peoria in 2013 and five in Palm Beach in 2014.

A foot fracture caused Tilson to miss the 2014 Arizona Fall League, but once healthy, he continued to prosper with Double-A Springfield, and Triple-A Memphis didn’t prove to be much of a challenge either. The Cardinals traded Tilson to the Chicago White Sox for Zach Duke at the 2016 trade deadline, but another injury in the same foot he hurt in 2014 wiped out his 2017 season.

Tilson became a free agent in 2019 after playing in parts of three major league seasons with the White Sox and hitting .246 during that time. He has since played in the Mexican Baseball League and the Atlantic League, and he now plays for the Chicago Dogs of the American Association.

18. Jordan Swagerty (RHP)

Jordan Swagerty appeared to be on the fast track to making it to St. Louis and snagging the closer’s role, but injuries kept him from ascending past Double-A. Swagerty was taken in the second round out of Arizona State in 2010, and it was clear that his future was in the bullpen. The Cardinals gave him some starting experience in Low-A Quad Cities to let him develop his pitches in longer stints, but he was moved to the bullpen shortly after his promotion to High-A. At Palm Beach, Swagerty had a 1.82 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 54.1 innings.

Swagerty missed the 2012 season after bone spurs eventually led to Tommy John surgery. He also missed most of 2013 because of a pinched nerve, and another surgery to remove bone spurs kept him out of 2014. After missing nearly three full years, Swagerty returned to Double-A in 2015 and surrendered 22 earned runs in 16 innings. The Cardinals released him in July, and his promising career was over at age 25.

17. C.J. McElroy (OF)

C.J. McElroy was a star on the gridiron as well as on the diamond at Clear Creek High School in League City, Texas. He had committed to play wide receiver at Houston, but he backtracked on that decision and instead signed with the Cardinals as a third-rounder in 2011.

Speed was the name of the game for McElroy, but his hitting tool was raw because of his multisport history. He had almost no power, so his game was predicated on reaching base and doing damage from there. In 2013, McElroy began switch-hitting, learning to bat from the left side so he would be one step closer to first base. A foot injury five games into the season waylaid those plans, as he missed the next two months and was sent to instructional league after he recovered.

In 2014, McElroy led the organization with 41 stolen bases at Low-A Peoria, but upon his promotion to High-A the next year, he hit only .247. He missed 2017 with an injury, and the Cardinals released him after that season. He signed with the Cincinnati Reds, but after failing to reach the Mendoza Line in Triple-A, he signed with Sugar Land in the Atlantic League, where he played through 2019.

16. Victor De Leon (RHP)

Victor De Leon was able to hit 98 mph with his fastball in his U.S. debut in 2011, but like many flamethrowers, control was an issue, as he walked 24 batters in 50.1 innings in 2011. His command and control gradually improved in 2012, and he was promoted from Rookie ball to High-A State College in 2013, where he was moved to the bullpen nearly full time and had a 2.87 ERA.

Despite his decent numbers, De Leon was demoted to Johnson City in June 2014, and the Cardinals released him a few days later. He never signed with another team, and he concluded his career at age 21.

15. Ryan Jackson (SS)

Ryan Jackson was an elite defensive shortstop in college whom the Cardinals took in the fifth round in 2009, but like so many defensive stalwarts, his bat was never able to catch up to the glove. He lacked power, and he wasn’t able to make up for it with speed; his career high in stolen bases was nine with Memphis in 2013. Jackson received a bit of time with the Cardinals in 2012 but was unable to make an impact, getting only two hits in 17 at-bats.

Jackson slowly lost playing time to fellow prospect Pete Kozma in Triple-A that year, and after the 2013 season where he hit .278 in Memphis, the Houston Astros claimed him off waivers. Jackson would then begin a nomadic journey throughout the minor leagues with nine other teams, hitting .268 in nearly 3,000 minor league at-bats but only .061 in his brief tastes of the major leagues. In 2021, Jackson played for the independent league Long Island Ducks, where he hit .287 in 188 at-bats.

14. Kevin Siegrist (LHP)

For a couple of years, Kevin Siegrist looked to be a draft steal. He was taken in the 41st round in 2008, but injuries slowed his progress through the system. He broke out in 2012 with High-A Palm Beach, where he had a 2.28 ERA in 10 games. The Cardinals then converted Siegrist to a reliever, which amped up his velocity. The next year, he debuted with the Cardinals and surrendered only two runs in 39.2 innings, while opponents hit only .128 against him.

A forearm injury affected Siegrist’s production in 2014, but he became the setup man for Trevor Rosenthal the next year. In 2015 and 2016, he had a 2.44 ERA and led the major leagues in 2015 with 81 games pitched. However, injuries nagged at him again in 2017, and the Cardinals designated him for assignment in August.

Siegrist briefly pitched for the Philadelphia Phillies, appearing in seven games, and later signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates but opted not to report to the minor leagues. In July 2022, Siegrist signed with the Atlantic League’s Charleston Dirty Birds.

13. Pete Kozma (SS)

The Cardinals took Pete Kozma with their first pick in 2007, picking 18th, their highest placement in the draft since 2000. He was deemed a strong fielder with potential for his bat to grow, but he struggled to bring that part of his game around despite a solid eye at the plate. Despite his hitting only .232 in Triple-A in 2012, the Cardinals brought him up to the major leagues after Rafael Furcal’s elbow injury. A torrid stretch ensued where Kozma hit .333 in 26 games, and he enjoyed his signature major league moment when he dove in the winning run of the National League Division Series in Game Five.

Kozma took over for Furcal to be the team’s starting shortstop in 2013, but he fumbled the opportunity, hitting .217 in 410 at-bats on the season. The Cardinals signed Jhonny Peralta to replace him in 2014, and Kozma spent most of his time in Memphis, hitting .248.

After having more trouble at the plate in 2015, Kozma elected free agency and later played a few games with the New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics. He spent 2022 with the American Association’s Kansas City Monarchs.

12. James Ramsey (OF)

James Ramsey possessed the character makeup coming out of college that the Cardinals coveted, so they grabbed him with the 23rd pick of the draft. His charisma and leadership that earned him a Rhodes Scholarship nomination followed him to the professional ranks, and he developed more power than he showed in college. After starting off hot in High-A in 2013, Ramsey received a promotion to Double-A, where he hit .251, but only .208 against left-handers.

The Cardinals traded Ramsey to the Cleveland Indians for pitcher Justin Masterson at the 2014 trade deadline, and while Ramsey spent time in Triple-A with the Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins, he was never able to make the last jump to the big leagues. His struggles against left-handed pitching never abated, and the Twins released him in 2018.

Ramsey then took a job as a coach at Florida State University and moved to Georgia Tech in 2019, where he is now the team’s associate head coach.

11. Patrick Wisdom (3B)

Patrick Wisdom was a discount first-round signing by the Cardinals in 2012 after a subpar final season at St. Mary’s College of California. He was a power-over-contact hitter throughout his minor league career, hitting .244 with 134 home runs in his minor league stops from 2012 to 2021. In 2018 with Triple-A Memphis, Wisdom hit for a career-high .288 average and received a cup of coffee with the Cardinals, where he hit .260 with four home runs.

The Cardinals dealt Wisdom to the Texas Rangers for outfielder Drew Robinson in December 2018, and after a short stint with Texas and the Seattle Mariners organization, Wisdom signed with the Chicago Cubs in 2020 and re-signed a minor league contract with them the next year.

In 2021, Wisdom received his first prolonged major league exposure and was emblematic of the three-true-outcomes hitter: He set the all-time Cubs record for home runs by a rookie, with 26, but he hit .231 and whiffed in 40.8% of his at-bats. In 2022, Wisdom led the majors in strikeout percentage and was second in the league in errors at third base with 14.

10. Stephen Piscotty (OF)

The second of the two compensation picks the Cardinals received from the Los Angeles Angels for Albert Pujols, Stephen Piscotty had an advanced sense of the strike zone and looked to be a good bet to pan out as a high-average gap hitter. After a full season at Triple-A Memphis in 2014 where he hit .288, Piscotty received a promotion in 2015 and hit the ground running, batting .305 for the Cardinals. He spent the entire 2016 season with St. Louis, hitting .273 with 22 home runs.

Before the 2017 season, Piscotty signed a six-year extension with the Cardinals but didn’t have the same success, hitting .232 and spending much of the year in the minor leagues to get him straightened out.

In December of 2017, the Cardinals traded Piscotty to the Oakland Athletics in a gesture of goodwill after he requested to be closer to his mother, who had Lou Gehrig’s disease. The Cardinals received Yairo Munoz and Max Schrock in exchange. Piscotty’s first season in Oakland was decent, as he hit .267, but it was downhill from there, as his major league average regressed every year since, bottoming out at .190 in 2022. He signed with the Cincinnati Reds in August but became a free agent after the season.

9. Carson Kelly (C)

Long considered to be the heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Carson Kelly likely didn’t expect Molina to play for another eight years after Kelly was converted to a catcher in 2014. He had a strong, accurate arm that nailed 36% of attempted basestealers in 2015 with High-A Palm Beach, but his bat didn’t come around until 2016 in Double-A, where he hit .287. He flourished even more in Memphis, hitting .292, and he joined the Cardinals briefly near the end of the season.

Kelly was aggressive to a fault early in his career, but his eye at the plate improved as he climbed the ladder. The Cardinals traded him to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the blockbuster Paul Goldschmidt deal in December 2018 to release him from the shackles of the bench behind Molina. There, he hit .245 with 18 home runs in his first extended major league action, tying Miguel Montero for most home runs by a Diamondbacks catcher in a season.

The abridged 2020 season saw Kelly hit .221, but he rebounded the next year to hit .240. His 2022 was a step back, as he hit only .211 with seven home runs.

8. Tyrell Jenkins (RHP)

Tyrell Jenkins turned down the opportunity to play quarterback at Baylor University so he could pursue a baseball career. Shoulder woes in his first three minor league seasons limited him to less than 85 innings in his first three seasons, and in 2013 he finally had surgery to repair his latissimus muscle. He had command issues and fringy secondary pitches for much of his career, but he broke out in 2015 after being traded to the Atlanta Braves with Shelby Miller for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden.

Jenkins’ 3.00 ERA in Double-A brought about a promotion, and in 2016, Jenkins pitched 83.2 innings to a 2.47 ERA. The Braves promoted him to the majors that year, but he scuffled and lost his improved control, walking 33 batters in 52 innings.

The Braves traded him to the Texas Rangers after the 2016 season, and he later played in the San Diego Padres system but was released in July 2017 after a 7.76 ERA in 82.1 innings.

7. Matt Adams (1B)

Another late draft pick who made it to the major leagues, Matt Adams was a 23rd-round pick out of Slippery Rock University in 2009 who was noted for his light-tower power. He hit .300 or better at every level before receiving his major league promotion in 2012. Adams became the Cardinals’ everyday first baseman in 2014, a year where he hit .288 with 15 home runs. He missed much of 2015 because of an injury, and he returned in 2016 to hit .249.

The Cardinals traded Adams to the Atlanta Braves early in the 2017 season for Juan Yepez. With the Braves in 2017, Adams hit .271, and the Washington Nationals signed him in December. The Cardinals reacquired Adams from waivers for the 2018 stretch run, but he only hit .158.

Washington, Atlanta and the Colorado Rockies were Adams’ last stops on the major league trail, with whom he hit a collective .215, before he signed with the American Association’s Kansas City Monarchs in April 2022.

6. Michael Wacha (RHP)

Michael Wacha made a beeline to the major leagues, reaching the top level in 2013 less than a year after being drafted. His first season saw him weave a 2.78 ERA, with the highlight being 8.2 no-hit innings against the Washington Nationals on Sept. 24. He was the NLCS MVP that year, pitching 13.2 scoreless innings.

A stress reaction in his scapula limited Wacha to 19 starts and kept him off the playoff roster until he appeared in Game 5 of the NLCS, when Wacha was called upon in a head-scratching move from manager Mike Matheny. He surrendered a series-losing walk-off home run to Travis Ishikawa of the San Francisco Giants.

In 2015, Wacha made the All-Star team and finished the season with 17 wins and a 3.38 ERA. He couldn’t replicate that in 2016, as his ERA inflated to 5.09 and health became an issue again. His final three years with St. Louis saw him accumulate a 4.13 ERA, and he signed with the New York Mets in 2020, struggling to a 6.62 ERA. After another tepid showing with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2021, Wacha had his best season since 2018, going 11-2 with the Boston Red Sox and owning a 3.32 ERA.