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How do the St. Louis Cardinals stack up with Willson Contreras?

By Josh Jacobs |
ST. LOUIS, MO - JUNE 26: Willson Contreras #40 of the Chicago Cubs hits a two RBI single during the fourth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on June 26, 2022 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)
ST. LOUIS, MO - JUNE 26: Willson Contreras #40 of the Chicago Cubs hits a two RBI single during the fourth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on June 26, 2022 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)
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The Cardinals made a major addition to their roster in the form of Willson Contreras. How does the team stack up now?

To the surprise of some and relief of many, the St. Louis Cardinals decided to go big with their answer to the catcher position, signing Willson Contreras to a 5-year, $87.5 million deal at the Winter Meetings.

Contreras takes on the pressure and expectations that will come with replacing a Cardinal legend in Yadier Molina, who was the club’s primary catcher for almost two decades. The 30-year old brings a whole different look to the catching position for St. Louis, boasting a big bat that can bolster the middle of their order and provide protection for Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

While there were strong indications that the Cardinals would acquire a catcher like Sean Murphy or one of the Blue Jays catchers via trade this off-season, it appears that the price point for those guys were more than what St. Louis felt comfortable trading. Instead of trading away the likes of Nolan Gorman or Lars Nootbaar along with more prospects, they opted to pay Contreras an AAV of $17.5 million per year instead. The club does lose their 2nd round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft due to Contreras receiving the qualifying offer.

While there are so many different opinions on this deal for the Cardinals, no signing or trade is done in a vacuum. A lot of this deal’s success will be predicated on how the Cardinals fill out their roster in 2023 and beyond.

Where do the Cardinals stand now with the addition of Contreras? What does their lineup look like? Where does their budget and assets fit into potential acquisitions?

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JULY 09: Tommy Edman #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals forces Willson Contreras #40 of the Chicago Cubs at second base at Wrigley Field on July 09, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cubs defeated the Cardinals 10-5. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JULY 09: Tommy Edman #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals forces Willson Contreras #40 of the Chicago Cubs at second base at Wrigley Field on July 09, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cubs defeated the Cardinals 10-5. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

St. Louis Cardinals lineup with Willson Contreras

Let’s talk about the really fun part of this – the improvement to the Cardinals lineup. In 2022, the Cardinals catching position produced a .552 OPS over the course of the season, ranking 28th in all of baseball. In 2022, Contreras posted a .815 OPS, bringing a big bat to what was a major weak spot in the Cardinals lineup.

Not only does it upgrade the catcher position at the plate, but when Contreras starts, the lineup becomes much deeper than it was before. Here is one way the Cardinals lineup could play out next season.

  1. RF Lars Nootbaar
  2. 2B Brendan Donovan
  3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
  4. 3B Nolan Arenado
  5. C Willson Contreras
  6. LF Tyler O’Neill
  7. DH Jordan Walker
  8. CF Dylan Carlson
  9. SS Tommy Edman

Without any moves being made, the club still had a bench of Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez/Alec Burleson, Paul DeJong, and Andrew Knizner. The additions of Contreras and Jordan Walker to their lineup should mean the Cardinals have at least an above league bat at every spot in the order, with big thumpers in the form of their MVP duo, and potentially more in the form of Contreras, Walker, and Tyler O’Neill.

One underrated part of Contreras’ plate skills is his ability to hit right-handed pitching, something that the Cardinals were hoping to improve on this off-season.

An over .800 OPS against both handedness is a great asset for St. Louis, and Contreras’ ability to get on-base against righties is what is really needed. Against left-handed pitching, he does not get on-base as much, but he destroys the baseball.

What will be interesting to see is how the Cardinals choose to deploy Contreras other than at catcher. Will he be the designated hitter on his off-days? If so, does that mean the club now needs to carry three catchers?

I may change my opinion on this, but with so many different DH options already on the club, I would rather sit Contreras when he needs a day off from catching, and hope to squeeze out more starts behind the plate because of that. Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez, and Alec Burleson are great options to start on his days off, no need to push Contreras too hard on a long-term deal.

What will the Cardinals do with the rest of their off-season in preparation for the 2023 season? Let’s take a look at where their budget stands and what assets they still have to trade from.

PITTSBURGH, PA – MAY 22: Juan Yepez #36 of the St. Louis Cardinals and Nolan Gorman #16 stand at attention for the National Anthem before the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on May 22, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – MAY 22: Juan Yepez #36 of the St. Louis Cardinals and Nolan Gorman #16 stand at attention for the National Anthem before the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on May 22, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

Cardinals budget and tradeable assets

Coming into the 2023 off-season, it was reported that the club would enter next season with a payroll cap of $180 million-$185 million, and Contreras puts them right up at $180 million at the moment. This likely takes them out of any significant free agent signings for now, unless the Cardinals make a few trades.

Names like Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson, and Lars Nootbaar are all young assets on the big league roster who could be dealt to make a significant upgrade to the starting rotation or lineup. Although they clearly cannot sign a front-line stater or significant bat this off-season, these assets on their own roster as well as a flurry of valuable prospects could help them bring in an impact player on a cost controlled deal.

The Cardinals could choose to move off of players like Dakota Hudson ($2.5 million), Paul DeJong ($9 million), Genesis Cabrera ($1.2 million), Jordan Hicks ($1.6 million), or other names that would clear a little bit of money as well. It’s hard to predict at the moment where they will go from here.

One thing to note here is that the $180 million-$185 payroll number is a reported projection, not a firm cap that we know of. The DeWitt’s can always green light a $5 million-$15 million increase, giving Mozeliak flexibility to round out the roster.

I really do not think the Cardinals are done making significant acquisitions. If anything, it seems to indicate that we should have all eyes on the trade market, as any impact moves they want to make will likely be impacted by that.

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