Cardinals: Pros and cons of free agent targets for St. Louis

What are the pros and cons of these potential Cardinals free agent additions?

The St. Louis Cardinals should be active in both the trade market and free agency this off-season, looking to address their needs at catcher, another potential impact bat, and the pitching staff. There are so many directions they could go with any of those needs, and depending on how they address each one, via trade or free agency, will impact how they address the rest.

The Cardinals are really intriguing when it comes to free agency. Will they spend their available budget on a much of players who will provide marginal improvements to the club? Or will St. Louis look to spend big on one or two players, aiming for a bigger increase in value to their overall team?

While the Cardinals tend to not be big spenders in free agency, they have made aggressive offers in the past with the likes of David Price and Jason Heyward. In recent years, they’ve opted to making mid-tier free agent signings like Dexter Fowler, Steven Matz, and Brett Cecil, not really seeming to give them the boost they were hoping for.

There are big names and mid-tier names alike that St. Louis is being linked to, and each come with their own sets of pros and cons for the Cardinals. Price points, age, performance, and fit on the club all play a part of their decision making, and its important to know what you are getting into when acquiring a player. Let’s take a moment to evaluate the pros and cons of different rumored targets that St. Louis has this off-season.

Trea Turner

Pros

• Trea Turner is one of the most all-around hitters in all of baseball, posting a career .842 OPS due to his ability to hit for power and get on base at a high rate, something the Cardinals could really use in their lineup.
• Turner is a stolen base machine, leading the NL in stolen bases twice in his career and stealing 27 in 2022. With the bases being widened in 2023, many expect Turner to be even more dangerous on the paths the next few seasons.
• The former Dodger and National has some defensive versatility, being able to play at shortstop, second base, and center field. This means St. Louis could bring Turner in as their shortstop this year, but he could slot in at a number of other positions as time goes on base on their needs.

Cons

• At 29-years old, Tuner is going to command a massive contract, likely with an AAV of $35 million+ over 7-10 years, easily being the most expensive player St. Louis has ever signed.
• Speed is a huge part of Turner’s game, so many wonder how well he will age if that begins to fade away. Can he still remain a highly impactful player? That is a huge concern.
• There is already an argument that Turner is at best an average defender at this point in his career, and that will probably only get worse with time, meaning he will really have to produce at the plate to provide his value.

Carlos Rodon

Pros

• Carlos Rodon is an ace, going 13-5 in 2021 with a 2.37 ERA in 132.2 innings for the White Sox, and following that up in 2022 with a 14-8 record and a 2.88 ERA in 178 innings of work as a Giant. St. Louis does not have this kind of starter in their rotation.
• Rodon has swing and miss stuff, striking out 12 batters per nine innings in 2022, something that the Cardinals also sorely lack at the moment.
• In recent years, it seems like left-handed pitching has an advantage at Busch Stadium, making a southpaw ace even more valuable for the Cardinals.

Cons

• Injuries, injuries, and injuries. This is something Rodon has struggled with throughout his career, and although it improved the last two seasons, it just feels inevitable that he will struggle with those again. He has never eclipsed 180 innings in his career, and missed most of the year in the 2017, 2019, and 2020 seasons.
• MLB Trade Rumors predicts Rodon will sign a 5-year, $140 million deal, putting him at $28 million a year. That is a lot of money to invest in a starting pitcher, especially if you cannot trust him to remain on the field.
• The Cardinals already have question marks with health up and down their staff, why add another?

Xander Bogaerts

Pros

• Xander Bogaerts is what will like to call a professional hitter. In 2022, he slashed .307/.377/.456 with 15 HR and 73 RBI for a struggling Red Sox club. After finishing 12th in MVP voting in 2021, he finished 9th in 2022 and won his second straight sliver slugger at shortstop, over Carlos Correa.
• Speaking of Correa, Bogaerts will cost significantly less than him and Trea Turner, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting him to receive 7 years, $189 million, opposed to the close to, if not more than, $300 million that the other two will receive.
• Bogaerts is a high-character player and fits what St. Louis needs, another big bat in the lineup, and has done this for World Series championship teams.

Cons

• He is probably the weakest defender of the star shortstops, and will likely need moved off of shortstop within the next few years, either to second base, third base, or designated hitter. So you’ll be paying him shortstop money knowing he will not stick there.
• At 30-years old, any long term commitment is a bit risky, and the Cardinals would be locking him in until his age-37 season.

Kenley Jansen

Pros

• Kenley Jansen has been one of the best relivers in baseball since 2010, and proved he could be successful outside of Los Angeles with the Braves this year, posting a 3.52 ERA with 41 saves and 85 SO in 64 innings of work.
• Jansen is playoff tested, meaning the Cardinals would have three cold-blooded righties at the back of their bullpen with Jansen, Giovanni Gallegos, and Ryan Helsley.
• At this point in his career, Jansen will likely only command a one-year deal, meaning St. Louis will not have to lock itself into a multi-year deal with a reliever again.

Cons

• Signing aging closers, or really any relievers, is one of the most unpredictable things in baseball. Jansen could be great, or he could be terrible, but you have to pay big bucks to find out, and can St. Louis afford to do that when they have other needs?
• At 35-years old, Jansen has begun to show cracks in his performance, declining in 2019 and 2020, bouncing back in 2021, and then mostly being good in 2022. Is 2023 another good year, or is that all that Jansen has left in the tank?

Dansby Swanson

Pros

• Dansby Swanson is one of the highest makeup guys in all of baseball, and really embodies what fans come to expect from core St. Louis players. Great teammate, high work ethic, plays the game the right way. You know he will slot right into what this organization values.
• Swanson pairs his elite defense with an above average bat, making him a great fit in an elite Cardinals defense and is coming off of a career year at the plate. In 2022, Swanson slashed .277/.329/.447 with 25 HR and 96 RBI for the Atlanta Braves.

Cons

• I’ve already showed my cards on Swanson in the past, but he seems like only a slight upgrade at shortstop for the Cardinals, but will require a long-term deal in the $25 million per year range. If you are going to spend big on a shortstop, why not grab one of the top three then, who have proven track records?
• Even in a career year last year, he fell off in the second half, and has really only been an above-average bat at the plate one season of his career, 2022. Why not just stick with Tommy Edman at that point?