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The case for overrated
For as fun of a stretch as Nootbaar put up after the Harrison Bader trade, it’s important to note that outside of that month and a half stretch, Nootbaar was a below league average hitter. Just take a look at his OPS month by month during the 2022 season.
March/April: .388 OPS
May: .182 OPS
June: .357 OPS
July: 1.030 OPS
August: .979 OPS
Sept/Oct: .693 OPS
For as great of a season Nootbaar had, it was streaky to say the least. You could argue that his second half numbers are the kind of hitter he has become, but may said similar things about the Cardinals breakout outfielder of 2021: Tyler O’Neill.
Playing devils advocate, here is Tyler O’Neill’s Baseball Savant page from 2021. A few blues in there, but also looks like someone who will continue to mash. Didn’t happen the next season. pic.twitter.com/Vhaq3dVysB
— Joshua Jacobs (@joshjacoMLB) November 16, 2022
For comparison, O’Neill’s 2021 Baseball Savant page looks very similar to that of Nootbaar, and O’Neill put up a much larger sample size of success. Check out his OPS by month in 2021:
March/April: .805 OPS
May: 1.020 OPS
June: .817 OPS
July: .669 OPS
August: .917 OPS
Sept/Oct: 1.108 OPS
It’s really easy to get caught up in the excitement of Nootbaar’s game, but anointing him the most trusted Cardinal outfielder with such a small sample size doesn’t make sense when someone like O’Neill had an even higher peak for a longer period of time. None of that is to say that Nootbaar can’t be the kind of player he showed during July and August, but banking on that small of a sample size, especially when he regressed in September and October, does not make a whole lot of sense.