Cardinals: Is Lars Nootbaar underrated or overrated?

The case for underrated

If you watched much of the Cardinals in 2022, especially after the Harrison Bader trade, you could not help but notice how much the club fed off of Nootbaar’s energy. Whenever the Cardinals needed a spart, it seemed like Nootbaar and Albert Pujols were the guys to provide that for the club.

With so much uncertainty surrounding the Cardinals outfield in 2022, it seems odd to want to deal away their most productive outfielder from this last season. Nootbaar slashed .228/.340/.448 with 14 HR and 40 RBI in 108 games played for the club while playing elite defense in right field. Nootbaar’s numbers are dragged down a bit due to his slow start to the season, but went on a tear once he was given the everyday job.

Aside form the traditional counting metrics, Nootbaar’s underlying peripherals indicate that the success the lefty found at the plate was not a fluke, per Baseball Savant. 

Whenever a player finds most of his percentile rankings in the red, that is indication of a lot of success coming their way. Sometimes talent evaluators and fans have a hard time coming around on a player that seemed a bit odd and goofy when they first came up, but Nootbaar produced far more than just a fun name to say, he was proving that he can be a valuable contributor to a playoff team.

For a club that values defense as well, Nootbaar’s defense is something to be celebrated as well. His arm is one of the best in the league, and although he does not have the range of a Harrison Bader, he was making highlight reel plays all season long. Nootbaar is able to play all three outfield positions at a high level, making him a valuable asset.

The case for overrated

For as fun of a stretch as Nootbaar put up after the Harrison Bader trade, it’s important to note that outside of that month and a half stretch, Nootbaar was a below league average hitter. Just take a look at his OPS month by month during the 2022 season.

March/April: .388 OPS

May: .182 OPS

June: .357 OPS

July: 1.030 OPS

August: .979 OPS

Sept/Oct: .693 OPS

For as great of a season Nootbaar had, it was streaky to say the least. You could argue that his second half numbers are the kind of hitter he has become, but may said similar things about the Cardinals breakout outfielder of 2021: Tyler O’Neill.

For comparison, O’Neill’s 2021 Baseball Savant page looks very similar to that of Nootbaar, and O’Neill put up a much larger sample size of success. Check out his OPS by month in 2021:

March/April: .805 OPS

May: 1.020 OPS

June: .817 OPS

July: .669 OPS

August: .917 OPS

Sept/Oct: 1.108 OPS

It’s really easy to get caught up in the excitement of Nootbaar’s game, but anointing him the most trusted Cardinal outfielder with such a small sample size doesn’t make sense when someone like O’Neill had an even higher peak for a longer period of time. None of that is to say that Nootbaar can’t be the kind of player he showed during July and August, but banking on that small of a sample size, especially when he regressed in September and October, does not make a whole lot of sense.

Verdict? Overrated by some, under appreciated by others.

Sorry if this seems like a cop out answer, but Nootbaar is a bit of a polarizing player. If you’re in the camp that Nootbaar is the most valuable and trustworthy outfielder that St. Louis has, you may be overrating him a little. If you’re in the camp where you think Nootbaar has to be dealt this off-season, you may be under appreciating what he brings to the Cardinals.

Nootbaar has shown not only flashes of high level play, but the necessary underlying metrics to back it up. The issue really lies in the sample size and evidence of him coming back down to earth during 2022. No one expected Nootbaar to continue to have an over 1.000 OPS, but to dip below .700 OPS in September and October is worth noting.

His play, although extremely important, does not warrant him being the top outfielder out of the Cardinals current options. If the right deal presents itself this off-season to capitalize on Nootbaar’s value, I say the Cardinals should go for it. If not, then let him prove any doubters wrong in 2023.

Now, this is not me saying I do not believe in Nootbaar, I am just not as quick as others to anoint him as high impact, everyday player in 2023. Could Nootbaar become that, yes. Will he? That remains to be seen. I would much rather trust O’Neill, Carlson, and Jordan Walker this next season if that meant flipping Nootbaar for a major upgrade somewhere else.