3 reasons why the Cardinals should wait to address rotation until 2024

The rotation will have major turnover after 2023

One of the underrated storylines entering the 2023 season is the fact that four of the five projected starters for St. Louis will be free agents after the season, with just Steven Matz being under contract long-term.

Adam Wainwright will be retiring at the end of the season, and not only has he become a club legend, but he has continued to provide the Cardinals with important innings over his final few seasons. Miles Mikolas bounced back big time in 2022, going 12-13 with a 3.29 ERA in 202.1 innings of work. Jordan Montgomery was a critical second-half addition, going 6-3 with a 3.11 ERA on the stretch for St. Louis. Jack Flaherty missed most of the 2022 season but will be looking to prove he still has ace-like stuff in his contract year.

The Cardinals may look to bring back one or two of these guys next off-season, but the likelihood is that they will need to fill three or four rotation spots come 2024. Matz is a quality middle of the rotation starter, but the club will need to find innings at both the top and backend of their rotation.

While the Cardinals could go ahead and add an option to their roster that will be there after 2023, the smarter play would be to ride out their options for this season, evaluate who to bring back, and which young arms could join the rotation. Ideally though, the Cardinals would revamp their rotation with one of the many top-end starters who will be free agents after 2023.

The 2023-2024 free agent class is loaded with top-end starters

Between Wainwright, Mikolas, Flaherty, and Montgomery, the Cardinals will have $49.7 million coming off of the books after 2023. Add in other expiring salaries, and that numbers jumps up to close to $70 million.

While some of that money will need to be used toward other roster spots, it’s safe to say John Mozeliak will have an opportunity to go after an ace if he so chooses. Here are just some of the names available next off-season: Aaron Nola, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Julio Urias, Yu Darvish, Lucas Giolito, Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, Frankie Montas, Lance Lynn, Sonny Gray, and Luis Severino, on top of the Cardinals own starters and others.

While some may look at that list and say there is no way the Cardinals are spending that kind of money, the advantage that St. Louis has here is that with so many high-end starters available, the bidding wars on individual pitchers will not be as drastic as when there are only a few top-end guys available. Even if the Cardinals have to shell out $30 million to an ace, that still leaves them with $40 million to round out other roster spots.

Outside of their rotation guys hitting free agency, the Cardinals do not have any other impact free agents hitting the market. This frees up St. Louis to go after some of that high end talent, knowing that they have plenty of internal options to fill out their roster.

Let’s look at some of those internal options who could fill out the rotation.

Cardinals have young pitching on the way

While some of these names may find their way into trades for a catcher this off-season, they club still has a variety of young arms who could be viable options in 2024. These names include Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Connor Thomas, Tink Hence, Connor Hjerpe, Michael McGreevy, Tink Hence, and Zack Thompson.

If the Cardinals bring back one of their starters like Jordan Montgomery, and go out and sign an ace like Aaron Nola, the club would only need to fill out two rotation spots. It is likely that many of these names could be legit options to fill out the back end of the Cardinals rotation come 2024.

Thomas was just named the Arizona Fall League pitcher of the year. Liberatore has already pitched a bit in the big leagues and would have another season of development under his belt. Graceffo impressed a ton in 2022 and will likely factor into the Cardinals plans in 2023. The list goes on and on.

Even if the Cardinals do not trust enough of these arms, they have the farm system to go out and trade for established, cost-controlled pitching to add to that rotation. There are so many ways St. Louis could go with this, and none of them are bad options.

So while the appeal of grabbing a starter is there this off-season, the Cardinals would be better off waiting on this position one more year, and then cash their chips in accordingly.