Cardinals: Sign, trade, or hold at each position of need this offseason

The St. Louis Cardinals have different directions they could go this winter, but should they sign, trade, or hold steady at each of their offseason targets?

We are just a few days removed from the conclusion of the 2022 World Series, and rumors are already rampant as to what upgrades the St. Louis Cardinals should, or should not, make this coming offseason.

Even with multiple different positions they could target, the question arises as to whether or not the team should fill that need through free agency, the trade market, or an internal option. Most expect the club to go with a mix of these routes, but where they choose to invest money, trade assets, and who to bank on internally will determine a lot of how this team looks in 2023.

With that being said, let’s look at each of the rumored roster targets (catcher, shortstop, front-line starter, bullpen, outfield, and designated hitter) to determine whether the Cardinals should sign, trade for, or look within their organization for the 2023 season.

Catcher

Already identified by John Mozeliak as one of the club’s biggest external needs, its clear that the Cardinals will need to bring in a new starting catcher, whether its through trade or free agency.

The Cardinals are consistently linked on the free agent market to division rival Willson Contreras, who would provide a major upgrade offensively for the club. Other names like Christian Vazquez, Tucker Barnhardt, and Martin Maldonado have been linked to St. Louis as well due to their elite skills behind the plate.

While the Cardinals certainly could not go wrong bringing in Contreras, or making big moves elsewhere and signing one of those other names, the trade market appears to be the best use of resources to get an upgrade behind the plate while saving money for other splashy moves.

Oakland’s Sean Murphy or one of Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk or Danny Jensen make a ton of sense for St. Louis. The Cardinals have plenty of young talent to deal from, and in Toronto’s case, one of their starting outfielders may be extremely appealing to them. All three of these names would be major upgrades for St. Louis, while not having to break the bank financially. Murphy and Kirk specifically would cost a lot of assets, but would be a worthwhile move for the club, especially if it means spending big money elsewhere.

Verdict: Trade

Shortstop

Just like last offseason, this year’s free agent class is littered with great shortstops, and the Cardinals once again find their names in the mix. Unlike last offseason though, the club has to pull the trigger on one of these superstars, and they have the money to do so.

St. Louis needs that third elite bat in their lineup, and instead of banking on one of their internal options to be that, they can go out and acquire certainty in the form of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, or Carlos Correa. Sure, the club has great options now in Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan, as well as Masyn Winn on the way, but the talent available is just too good to turn down.

Just look at the difference in the kind of lineup the Cardinals can have if they make the major investment this offseason

DH Brendan Donovan

LF Tyler O’Neill

1B Paul Goldschmidt

3B Nolan Arenado

SS Turner/Correa/Bogaerts

RF Jordan Walker

C Murphy/Kirk/Jansen

CF Dylan Carlson

2B Tommy Edman

This lineup is nine-men deep and has the firepower to compete with the best middle-of-the-orders in the game. Pressure is taken off guys like O’Neill, Walker, and Carlson to “be that guy”, and rather can thrive as complementary pieces.

You’ll see later that this frees up the Cardinals to use one of Nolan Gorman or Winn as trade pieces for another major addition. Assuming Gorman is that guy, Winn can still be a major part of the club’s future, as Edman may not be someone the Cardinals extend past his controllable years, or one of those names could become a full-time outfielder or DH to make room for Winn in 2024.

Verdict: Sign Turner, Correa, or Bogaerts

Front-line pitching

The Cardinals have five competent starters already projected for their rotation in Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, and Adam Wainwright, as well as swing-options like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, and Jake Woodford. The team does not need more “good to average” starters, they need someone who can matchup with the best in the league.

Although there are names hitting free agency this offseason that could fit the bill like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Rodon, but investing $25+ million a year in a starting pitcher is risky business for a club that has a big budget, but cannot afford to just throw money around either. Luckily for St. Louis, they have the trade assets to go out and acquire a controllable ace for 2023.

The type of ace the Cardinals acquire matters a lot too. The Cardinals ranked near the bottom of the league in strikeouts from their rotation in 2022, and they will need more strikeout stuff to compete with the game’s best lineups. Full seasons from Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty should help with this, but the club still needs a sure thing at the top of their rotation.

Names like Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Pablo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, or other names could end up on the move this offseason, and the Cardinals need to be the team who goes out and acquires one of those names. A mix of one of their starting outfielders, young core, one of their current starters, and top prospects could entice any club looking to cash in on their ace. Only Steven Matz from their current rotation is under contract beyond 2023, so a deal for an ace is paramount not just for this coming season but for the future of the club.

Verdict: Trade for an ace

Outfield

What was supposed to be a strength for St. Louis in 2022 ended up being a source of frustration, leaving many to wonder whether or not significant changes need to be made to the club’s outfield in 2023.

Free agency has some interesting options, including left-handed bats like Brandon Nimmo and Joc Pederson. Both would be upgrades to the Cardinals and should be in their price-range. The trade market does not currently have any names that stand out, but depending on how things shake out, names like Bryan Reynolds or even Mike Trout could be available, which St. Louis should pounce on, but both are unlikely at this point.

It really was not that long ago that Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson looked like cornerstone players for St. Louis. If it were not for injury plagued seasons, the pair likely would have finished the 2022 season on much better notes than they did. Lars Nootbaar’s rise in 2022 should also give the club enough confidence to roll into 2023 with their internal options.

Many expect top prospect Jordan Walker to be one of the club’s everyday outfielders as soon as Opening Day, but at the very least, by early summer. Adding another outfielder would than leave one outfield spot and designated hitter for the following players: O’Neill, Carlson, Nootbaar, Juan Yepez, and Alec Burleson. Even if some of these guys end up in trades, this just does not seem like smart roster construction.

Odds are at least one of Carlson or O’Neill bounces back next year, giving the Cardinals plenty of outfield options in 2023. Worst case, an outfielder becomes their number one trade target around the trade deadline, but they are least saw what they had in their outfield core. If the Cardinals would give Paul DeJong a chance in 2022, then I do not see why they would give up so quickly on their current outfielders.

Verdict: Hold

Bullpen

On one hand, the Cardinals bullpen came up big on multiple occasions for the club throughout the 2022 season. On the other hand, it lacks enough power arms to compete with the best bullpens in the league.

Ryan Helsley was masterful throughout 2022 and is one of the best relievers in baseball, but outside of him, the bullpen lacks legit strikeout stuff, and relied to heavily on just a few relievers to get the job done. Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Andre Pallante and Zack Thompson should be important members of the bullpen in 2023, but the club could use more high-end options.

Relievers such as Kenley Jansen, Zach Eflin, Rafael Montero, Robert Suarez, Nick Martinez, or Carlos Estevez should all peak the interest of St. Louis when it comes to adding top-end bullpen arms. While the Cardinals have a terrible track record with bullpen investments through free agency, its a risk they will need to take in order to compete with the best in the game.

Outside of signing another reliever, some of their top pitching prospects could carve out roles in the bullpen this season, as guys like Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence, and Connor Thomas may have the stuff St. Louis needs. There also may be opportunities to acquire top end relievers in the trade market his offseason, which the Cardinals should be open to.

Verdict: Sign, keep their eyes out for trades as well