Cardinals: Looking back at why St. Louis did not sign Bryce Harper

After leading the Philadelphia Phillies to the World Series, one has to wonder why the St. Louis Cardinals did not sign Bryce Harper in 2019.

The St. Louis Cardinals seemed to be on the cusp of something special in 2022, but a few different factors seemed to hold them back from being anything more than their first round exit. One of those missing pieces was a third impact bat, especially one from the left-handed side. That bat looks a lot like Phillies’ Bryce Harper, who knocked them out of the playoffs this year.

Harper, who was just named the 2022 NLCS MVP after leading the Phillies to the World Series after a Championship Series that saw him bat .400/.400/.850 with 2 HR and 5 RBI, was a free agent after the 2018 season at just age-26, and many believed Harper would end up surpassing $400 million with his contract. The market ended up being a lot cooler for the slugger, and he ended up signing in Philadelphia for 13 years, $330 million.

Many around baseball are already seeing this as a steal of a contract. Many worried if any team who signed Harper to such a deal would regret it, but instead, the Phillies look like they have a bargain on their hands. In 455 games for the Phillies, Harper has hit .282/.394/.546 with 101 HR and 296 RBI, winning NL MVP in 2021 and playing like an MVP in other seasons. Harper has been better in Philadelphia than he was in Washington, which is almost unheard of for a star leaving his former team.

The real travesty of it all is that the Cardinals really could have landed Harper if they wanted to, and maybe we are talking about St. Louis being in the World Series today rather than the Phillies. It’s hard to predict what would have happened if the Cardinals had signed Bryce Harper, but we can look back and analyze their decision not to. Here is my breakdown of the Cardinals decision to not sign Harper, and how they should be kicking themselves this week.

The Cardinals need for Bryce Harper was a big as anyone in baseball

After finishing 88-74 in 2018 and missing the playoffs, it was clear that St. Louis desperately needed a big time bat in their lineup. They had traded for Marcell Ozuna the offseason prior, and leaned on his bat alongside Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, and a collection of bats who are above-average at best. They needed a superstar bat in their lineup, specifically in the outfield.

The Cardinals outfield at the time consisted of Ozuna, Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, and new comers Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill, who were just getting at bats in St. Louis for the first time. Slotting a guy like Harper into right-field made all of the sense in the world. The Cardinals were just above league-average in OPS, but would not be able to contend with the best in the NL without some game changers at the plate.

The Cardinals did make an incredible move to head in that direction, though. On December 5th, 2018, the Cardinals traded for perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt in a steal of a package, and were able to extend him for another five seasons after 2019. Goldschmidt was the kind of bat they needed in their lineup, but even so, they were not going to be World Series contenders without another superstar in that lineup.

Some may try to argue that the Cardinals could not make two moves like that in one offseason, but if you look at their payroll and the alternative decisions they made, you can see how Harper in St. Louis could have happened if they wanted it to.

The Cardinals moves prior to 2019 unnecessarily complicated this move

Even after proving that the Cardinals could have made a Harper move work under their 2019 salary constraints, the greater sin may be the moves they had made prior to Harper’s free agency that made the decision more complicated than it needed to be.

After Giancarlo Stanton vetoed a trade to St. Louis prior to the 2018 season, the Cardinals turned around and offered the same package to Miami for Marcell Ozuna, losing future aces Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen in the process (a terrible mistake detailed out in this story). This was a move made just one year after signing Dexter Fowler to a 5 year, $82.5 million contract, and that was even a headscratcher at the time. Two poor investments in the outfield surely weighed into their decision not to hand out another $26 million annually for Harper.

The Cardinals have rebounded really well, even with some really poor decisions from 2016-2018, but the real travesty here is that in the moment, you could see how big of a miss this was. At the time, people were linking the Cardinals to Harper for similar reasons, so this is not as much revisionist history as it is a difference in opinion that won out for those who were pro-signing Harper.

Betting on the core that they did was not the mistake. Making bad moves in the past was not the reason this did not happen. The issue here was not being unable to afford Harper’s contract (see Stanton’s contract, which is almost the exact same, that they were willing to trade prospects for). The issue here was the front office and/or ownership’s unwillingness to take two major swings to vault this team into true contention.

The Cardinals should have bet on the MVP talent of Harper like they did with Goldschmidt, and who knows where this team would be. It is not out of the question that they end up with Nolan Arenado as well and are the class of the National League. Watching Harper tear through the National League playoffs is a blast, but it hurts when you remember that he could be doing this for the Birds on the Bat.