Cardinals: Looking back at why St. Louis did not sign Bryce Harper

The Cardinals need for Bryce Harper was a big as anyone in baseball

After finishing 88-74 in 2018 and missing the playoffs, it was clear that St. Louis desperately needed a big time bat in their lineup. They had traded for Marcell Ozuna the offseason prior, and leaned on his bat alongside Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, and a collection of bats who are above-average at best. They needed a superstar bat in their lineup, specifically in the outfield.

The Cardinals outfield at the time consisted of Ozuna, Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, and new comers Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill, who were just getting at bats in St. Louis for the first time. Slotting a guy like Harper into right-field made all of the sense in the world. The Cardinals were just above league-average in OPS, but would not be able to contend with the best in the NL without some game changers at the plate.

The Cardinals did make an incredible move to head in that direction, though. On December 5th, 2018, the Cardinals traded for perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt in a steal of a package, and were able to extend him for another five seasons after 2019. Goldschmidt was the kind of bat they needed in their lineup, but even so, they were not going to be World Series contenders without another superstar in that lineup.

Some may try to argue that the Cardinals could not make two moves like that in one offseason, but if you look at their payroll and the alternative decisions they made, you can see how Harper in St. Louis could have happened if they wanted it to.

The Cardinals could afford to sign Bryce Harper

After acquiring Paul Goldschmidt in December, St. Louis then inked reliver Andrew Miller to a 2 year, $25 million deal as their other big acquisition of the offseason. These two moves alone added $27 million in payroll for 2019, which is a big jump for the Cardinals traditionally.

But if St. Louis was going to be serious about competing with the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, and Los Angeles Dodgers, they were going to need to spend like it. While their payroll was sitting at $174 million, a simple reallocation of money would have free up enough money to bring in Harper and create a monster lineup for St. Louis.

Aside from saving $11.5 million by not signing Miller (already 45% of Harper’s AAV of $26 million), the Cardinals could have held off on extensions for Matt Carpenter and Miles Mikolas. Carpenter was signed to a 2 year, $39 million extension in April 2019 and Mikolas got a 4 year, $68 million dollar deal in February. Both players appeared extension worthy at the moment, but the Cardinals should have held off on extending both players, signed Harper, and figured out if they could afford to keep those guys around later. Carpenter was in his age-33 season and Mikolas age-31, and they bet on their future performance rather than a 26-year old superstar.

The Cardinals also had multiple contracts set to expire in the coming seasons outside of Carpenter and Mikolas, including Ozuna, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, and Kolten Wong. Even if they had just let Carpenter, Ozuna, and Wacha walk, that would have freed up $27 million in salary in 2020, slotting Harper’s salary right in there for them.

Signing Harper was not one of those massive $35 million AAV deals that many superstars require now, nor was it the risky investment like Albert Pujols was past the age of 30 back in 2011. This was one of those “once in a decade” opportunities to add a generational bat, with his prime ahead of him, at a discounted rate. The Cardinals simply missed on that, and their prioritization of keeping around some of their core was a mistake.

The Cardinals moves prior to 2019 unnecessarily complicated this move

Even after proving that the Cardinals could have made a Harper move work under their 2019 salary constraints, the greater sin may be the moves they had made prior to Harper’s free agency that made the decision more complicated than it needed to be.

After Giancarlo Stanton vetoed a trade to St. Louis prior to the 2018 season, the Cardinals turned around and offered the same package to Miami for Marcell Ozuna, losing future aces Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen in the process (a terrible mistake detailed out in this story). This was a move made just one year after signing Dexter Fowler to a 5 year, $82.5 million contract, and that was even a headscratcher at the time. Two poor investments in the outfield surely weighed into their decision not to hand out another $26 million annually for Harper.

The Cardinals have rebounded really well, even with some really poor decisions from 2016-2018, but the real travesty here is that in the moment, you could see how big of a miss this was. At the time, people were linking the Cardinals to Harper for similar reasons, so this is not as much revisionist history as it is a difference in opinion that won out for those who were pro-signing Harper.

Betting on the core that they did was not the mistake. Making bad moves in the past was not the reason this did not happen. The issue here was not being unable to afford Harper’s contract (see Stanton’s contract, which is almost the exact same, that they were willing to trade prospects for). The issue here was the front office and/or ownership’s unwillingness to take two major swings to vault this team into true contention.

The Cardinals should have bet on the MVP talent of Harper like they did with Goldschmidt, and who knows where this team would be. It is not out of the question that they end up with Nolan Arenado as well and are the class of the National League. Watching Harper tear through the National League playoffs is a blast, but it hurts when you remember that he could be doing this for the Birds on the Bat.