Cardinals: Looking back at the terrible Marcell Ozuna trade

Marcell Ozuna fell off in St. Louis, and later in Atlanta

Ozuna’s two-year stint in St. Louis was pretty good, finishing with a .280/325/.433 line with 23 HR and 88 RBIs in his first season with St. Louis, and following that up with a .800 OPS, 29 HR, and 89 RBI in 2019. He was a welcomed addition to the lineup and gave them another thumper in the lineup that they had desperately needed.

St. Louis had originally agreed to a similar package with Miami for slugger Giancarlo Stanton, but Stanton vetoed the deal and was later moved to the Yankees. The Cardinals turned their attention to Ozuna in the days following hoping that his bat would provide a similar spark to their lineup. The Cardinals would let Ozuna walk in free agency after the 2019 season, which proved to be a wise move eventually.

While Ozuna’s bat was good for St. Louis, he was not the masher that the Cardinals had expected him to be. Ozuna was nowhere close to his .924 OPS from 2017. If St. Louis had not given up the level of prospects they did, or had a longer run of success with the Cardinals, the trade would not have been so bad.

Ozuna later went on to mash in the shortened pandemic season for Atlanta, but has run into trouble with domestic violence and a DUI in recent years. Although that is reason enough to not want Ozuna on your team, he has also declined greatly at the plate, with a .645 and .687 OPS in 2021 and 2022.

The Cardinals gave away the expected 2022 NL Cy Young

The center piece of the Ozuna trade was prospect Sandy Alcantara, and boy did he exceed expectations.

After establishing himself as a reliable, young arm in the Miami Marlins rotation from 2018-2021, Alcantara broke out in 2022, going 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and 207 SO in 228.2 innings of work. Alcantara led all of baseball in innings pitched and complete games, showing that he is an elite pitcher who can be a workhorse like few are in today’s game.

For a team that desperately needs an “ace”, losing Alcantara in this deal is even more of a blow to St. Louis. It would be a blow to any team, but he is the perfect player for what the Cardinals need at the top of their rotation, and they let the now 26-year old slip away. One has to wonder if they could have put Alex Reyes in that trade instead.

To rub salt into the wound, the Marlins were able to get Alcantara signed to a 5-year, $55 million deal ahead of the 2022 season, making him not only one of the best pitchers in baseball, but now one of the best values in baseball, period.

The Cardinals front office are still licking their wounds after losing a player like this, and unfortunately, Alcantara is not the only Cy Young level starter St. Louis gave up in this trade.

Zac Gallen has found himself in the Cy Young conversation in 2022

Now with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen is coming off an elite 2022 season, and will likely receive NL Cy Young votes alongside Alcantara. 

Gallen only made 7 starts for the Marlins before being sent to the D-Backs for Jazz Chisholm in 2019, and continued to show promise, finishing the year with a 2.89 ERA across 15 starts for Miami and Arizona. He pitched well again in 2020 with a 2.75 ERA before a 4.30 ERA in his first full big league season in 2021.

2022 is where Gallen has really taken the leap and become one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 31 starts for Arizona, Gallen went 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA and a National League leading 0.91 WHIP, along with 192 SO. Gallen was nothing short of brilliant in 2022, and is arguably a top 10 pitcher in all of baseball. Gallen carried a D-Backs record 44 1/3 innings scoreless streak toward the end of the season, showing just how dominate he has become.

So far we have two of the best pitchers in baseball being dealt away by St. Louis in the Ozuna trade, and there are still two more pieces that are worth noting.

Average-arm and replaceable outfielder

While the two major pieces in this deal were Alcantara and Gallen, the Cardinals did let go of an average arm that could have been used in their bullpen as well as an outfielder that so far has not found his footing in the majors.

Daniel Castano has started 17 games and appeared in 5 more for the Marlins since 2020, amassing a 2-7 record but with a pretty good ERA sitting at 3.89. No one would argue that Castano is a huge loss, but decent, controllable arms are always needed, and adds to the misfire from the Cardinals.

Magneuris Sierra has provided sparks in small stretches during his major league career, but in 278 career games is just a .228/.273/.546 hitter with plus speed and good defense. He is only 26-years old and now on the Los Angeles Angels, so he could carve out a role in the next few seasons.

Where would the Cardinals be now had they not made this trade?

It’s really hard to say for certain how things would have played out for St. Louis had they not made this trade, as they could have used Alcantara or Gallen in a different deal later on. For the sake of this argument, let’s assume they hold onto both players.

The Cardinals would have sported a rotation this year of Alcantara, Gallen, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and eventually Jack Flaherty. This likely means no Steven Matz signing, allowing them to allocate that budget elsewhere, and no trades for Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery, which may have allowed St. Louis to be aggressive at improving their bullpen or lineup.

Two of the best arms in baseball on very controllable salaries (Alcantara makes $11 million annually for five years and Gallen is just hitting arbitration) may have meant the Cardinals would have gone all-in on Juan Soto understanding they had two MVP level hitters already, two front line starters, and a team surrounding them all with a lot of talent.

Even if keeping these two never meant getting another star, the Cardinals likely go deeper in this postseason, and then enter the offseason with $20+ million more in salary available (assuming no Matz or Montgomery) with their biggest needs now just being another big bat or bullpen help. It seems very likely that the front office would use that money to make the Cardinals a legit World Series threat.

Hindsight is always 20/20, so its not fair to assume all goes well for St. Louis without this deal. They would have needed to bring in another bat regardless, and maybe they instead choose to send away guys like Alex Reyes, or maybe they use other pieces that they would now regret losing.

It is fair to critique the level of talent St. Louis lost in one deal. Teams makes swings and misses all the time, you have to take risks to get better, but this will go down as one of the worst trades in the like decade in all of baseball. Luckily this front office is known more for their wins than their losses when it comes to trades, but this is one they would love to have back.