The St. Louis Cardinals are a perfect fit for Shohei Ohtani

The St. Louis Cardinals have a rare opportunity to address multiple areas of their roster with just one player. And that player may be interested in a move to a playoff contender.

There are a lot of opinions on what the St. Louis Cardinals should focus on this offseason. Catcher upgrades, starting pitching, the outfield– while there aren’t any obvious flaws to the currently constructed Cardinals team, there are countless ways to improve.

The problem, of course, is that it’s difficult to upgrade and change everything. If you spend money or trade prospects for pitching, that leaves less resources for another hitter, and vice versa. Professional teams face this issue every offseason, and must make carefully calculated decisions in order to best improve their club.

So it appears the St. Louis Cardinals, like most baseball teams in most offseasons, will have to make a choice on which part of their roster to spend big. But what if there was a way to do all of it? A solution that would address both the top of the rotation and the middle of the order? Yes, I’m talking about Shohei Ohtani.

A recent report from Ohtani in Japan saying that while he had, “a good season for me personally,” Ohtani wasn’t thrilled with the 2022 season; “We were not able to play as many good games as we would like—including 14 consecutive losses. So I have a rather negative impression of this season.”

Entering the final year of arbitration, the 28-year old megastar might be hinting at wanting to leave the Los Angeles Angels. And if the opportunity presents itself, the St. Louis Cardinals should do whatever it takes to acquire him. Besides the obvious– Shohei Ohtani is really good at baseball– here are three reasons why it makes sense for St. Louis to trade for Shohei Ohtani.

STRIKEOUT RATE

The 2022 St. Louis Cardinals had the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball. At 7.38 K/9, the Cardinals were over one whole strikeout behind the next playoff team– the Cleveland Guardians– and over two strikeouts behind the MLB-leading New York Mets.

Some of that is by design. The Cardinals pitch to their strengths, forcing contact into their stellar defense. However, in today’s game, you need to have the ability for a punch out. The Cardinals can continue to rely on their defense and pitch to contact without being dead last in strikeouts.

Enter Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani was second in all of baseball this season with a K/9 rate of 11.87. The highest qualified Cardinal, Miles Mikolas, had a K/9 of 6.81. Expanding the leaderboard to include Cardinal relievers, Ohtani would still rank third on the team, behind only Jake Walsh, who pitched 2.2 innings, and all-star closer Ryan Helsley.

Ohtani isn’t just a strikeout pitcher. In 28 starts this season, Ohtani pitched 166 innings– that’s 5.9 innings per start. His 2.33 ERA ranked sixth in all of baseball, and his .203 average against ranked tenth. He’s going to get more than a few Cy Young votes.

It’s important to remember that Shohei Ohtani pitched as part of a six-man rotation. But the St. Louis Cardinals have the pitching depth to thrive in that system. Imagine Ohtani as the ace, followed by Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. That leaves Steven Matz, Matthew Liberatore, and others to compete for the sixth spot. That’s quite a rotation.

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking for strikeout pitchers to complement and lead their current staff. Ohtani is a perfect fit.

LEFT-HANDED POWER BAT

The St. Louis Cardinals learned the hard way this postseason that you can’t win if you don’t hit. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt struggled in October, and the rest of the lineup failed to step up and support them. Facing right-handed aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the October scoring drought continued an interesting trend from the regular season.

Throughout 2022, the Cardinals hit much better against left-handed pitching. As seen here on Baseball Reference, the team batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS+ were all higher against southpaws. The Cardinals ranked 1st in MLB in .OPS against lefties this season, but fell almost 100 points and dropped to 7th against righties. Still good, but it’s clear that this is an area to improve on for 2023.

The trend makes sense, as the three best hitters on the 2022 team– Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Albert Pujols– performed better against lefties than righties on the individual level. Heading into next season, a left-handed slugger to balance out the current Cardinal stars would be the ideal move.

Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Alec Burleson are the current left-handed hitters on the 40-man roster. In addition to Burleson, only two hitters on the current Cardinal top-30 prospect list are left-handed– 19-year old Won-Bin Cho and 21-year old Jimmy Crooks. It appears this is a weakness throughout the organization.

Once again, enter Shohei Ohtani. Like Arenado and Goldschmidt, Ohtani can hit absolutely anyone. However, the left-handed DH performs better against right-handed pitchers. Goldschmidt and Arenado are a deadly duo at the plate, but now imagine a lineup of Goldy, Ohtani, and Arenado– there’s no escape, no weakness. It would rival the Dodgers trio of Trae Turner, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman as the best group in baseball.

In addition to providing balance in the Cardinal lineup, Ohtani is simply one of the best hitters in the world. He finished the season 10th in OPS and 11th in home runs. In maybe the most mind-blowing stat ever, Ohtani’s batting average of .273 is 70 points higher than his opponent’s batting average facing him as a pitcher. Plus he hit more than twice the home runs that he gave up! It’s just astounding what Ohtani can do on a baseball field.

Ohtani is incredible, and he profiles exactly as the kind of bat the St. Louis Cardinals need. But would the Cardinals really make this sort of move?

TRADING TRACK RECORD

Most importantly, an Ohtani trade fits the track record of the St. Louis Cardinals front office. John Mozeliak and his team have a history of trading for disgruntled superstars with a year remaining on their contracts.

In 2009, the Cardinals traded with the Oakland Athletics for Matt Holliday. They gave up top prospects Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortenson, and Shane Peterson. Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson. Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson never made a major league impact. Holliday signed with the Cardinals and most recently entered the St. Louis Cardinal Hall of Fame.

In 2019, the Cardinals traded with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Paul Goldschmidt. They gave up Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, and Andy Young. Kelly is the only one still on the team. Goldschmidt signed with the Cardinals and is likely to win the 2022 NL MVP.

In 2021, the Cardinals traded with the Colorado Rockies for Nolan Arenado. They gave up Eleheuris Montero, Austin Gomber, and others. The package of players has struggled to make a major league impact. Arenado is likely to opt-in to his contract and remain with the Cardinals, and is likely to finish top-three in NL MVP voting.

Stop me if you see a trend. The St. Louis Cardinals are quite good at capitalizing on the availability of pending free agents on struggling teams. John Mozeliak and his team know how and when to pursue a frustrated all-star, trade for him, and let the magic of the St. Louis experience convince those stars to stay long term.

It’s an incredible formula for success, and the Shohei Ohtani situation fits the formula quite nicely.