The St. Louis Cardinals are a perfect fit for Shohei Ohtani

STRIKEOUT RATE

The 2022 St. Louis Cardinals had the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball. At 7.38 K/9, the Cardinals were over one whole strikeout behind the next playoff team– the Cleveland Guardians– and over two strikeouts behind the MLB-leading New York Mets.

Some of that is by design. The Cardinals pitch to their strengths, forcing contact into their stellar defense. However, in today’s game, you need to have the ability for a punch out. The Cardinals can continue to rely on their defense and pitch to contact without being dead last in strikeouts.

Enter Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani was second in all of baseball this season with a K/9 rate of 11.87. The highest qualified Cardinal, Miles Mikolas, had a K/9 of 6.81. Expanding the leaderboard to include Cardinal relievers, Ohtani would still rank third on the team, behind only Jake Walsh, who pitched 2.2 innings, and all-star closer Ryan Helsley.

Ohtani isn’t just a strikeout pitcher. In 28 starts this season, Ohtani pitched 166 innings– that’s 5.9 innings per start. His 2.33 ERA ranked sixth in all of baseball, and his .203 average against ranked tenth. He’s going to get more than a few Cy Young votes.

It’s important to remember that Shohei Ohtani pitched as part of a six-man rotation. But the St. Louis Cardinals have the pitching depth to thrive in that system. Imagine Ohtani as the ace, followed by Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. That leaves Steven Matz, Matthew Liberatore, and others to compete for the sixth spot. That’s quite a rotation.

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking for strikeout pitchers to complement and lead their current staff. Ohtani is a perfect fit.

LEFT-HANDED POWER BAT

The St. Louis Cardinals learned the hard way this postseason that you can’t win if you don’t hit. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt struggled in October, and the rest of the lineup failed to step up and support them. Facing right-handed aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the October scoring drought continued an interesting trend from the regular season.

Throughout 2022, the Cardinals hit much better against left-handed pitching. As seen here on Baseball Reference, the team batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS+ were all higher against southpaws. The Cardinals ranked 1st in MLB in .OPS against lefties this season, but fell almost 100 points and dropped to 7th against righties. Still good, but it’s clear that this is an area to improve on for 2023.

The trend makes sense, as the three best hitters on the 2022 team– Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Albert Pujols– performed better against lefties than righties on the individual level. Heading into next season, a left-handed slugger to balance out the current Cardinal stars would be the ideal move.

Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Alec Burleson are the current left-handed hitters on the 40-man roster. In addition to Burleson, only two hitters on the current Cardinal top-30 prospect list are left-handed– 19-year old Won-Bin Cho and 21-year old Jimmy Crooks. It appears this is a weakness throughout the organization.

Once again, enter Shohei Ohtani. Like Arenado and Goldschmidt, Ohtani can hit absolutely anyone. However, the left-handed DH performs better against right-handed pitchers. Goldschmidt and Arenado are a deadly duo at the plate, but now imagine a lineup of Goldy, Ohtani, and Arenado– there’s no escape, no weakness. It would rival the Dodgers trio of Trae Turner, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman as the best group in baseball.

In addition to providing balance in the Cardinal lineup, Ohtani is simply one of the best hitters in the world. He finished the season 10th in OPS and 11th in home runs. In maybe the most mind-blowing stat ever, Ohtani’s batting average of .273 is 70 points higher than his opponent’s batting average facing him as a pitcher. Plus he hit more than twice the home runs that he gave up! It’s just astounding what Ohtani can do on a baseball field.

Ohtani is incredible, and he profiles exactly as the kind of bat the St. Louis Cardinals need. But would the Cardinals really make this sort of move?

TRADING TRACK RECORD

Most importantly, an Ohtani trade fits the track record of the St. Louis Cardinals front office. John Mozeliak and his team have a history of trading for disgruntled superstars with a year remaining on their contracts.

In 2009, the Cardinals traded with the Oakland Athletics for Matt Holliday. They gave up top prospects Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortenson, and Shane Peterson. Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson. Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson never made a major league impact. Holliday signed with the Cardinals and most recently entered the St. Louis Cardinal Hall of Fame.

In 2019, the Cardinals traded with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Paul Goldschmidt. They gave up Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, and Andy Young. Kelly is the only one still on the team. Goldschmidt signed with the Cardinals and is likely to win the 2022 NL MVP.

In 2021, the Cardinals traded with the Colorado Rockies for Nolan Arenado. They gave up Eleheuris Montero, Austin Gomber, and others. The package of players has struggled to make a major league impact. Arenado is likely to opt-in to his contract and remain with the Cardinals, and is likely to finish top-three in NL MVP voting.

Stop me if you see a trend. The St. Louis Cardinals are quite good at capitalizing on the availability of pending free agents on struggling teams. John Mozeliak and his team know how and when to pursue a frustrated all-star, trade for him, and let the magic of the St. Louis experience convince those stars to stay long term.

It’s an incredible formula for success, and the Shohei Ohtani situation fits the formula quite nicely.

SUMMARY

We’ve established how an Ohtani trade makes sense from a baseball perspective, and shown how the Cardinals have made similar moves before. But besides interest and competition from every other team in the league, there are a few complicating factors.

First, Ohtani would be by far the most expensive player the Cardinals have ever acquired. No one really knows how much a contract extension would be worth– it’s hard to gauge the value of one player who contributes like two separate all-stars. His current $30 million deal broke the record for arbitration-eligible players, and he’s likely to break every record on the open market, as well.

In addition to the monetary cost, the prospect cost would be enormous. The Angels are stuck in baseball mediocrity with one of the worst minor league systems. If they trade Ohtani, they will expect multiple top prospects in return.

Yet none of that should matter, because Ohtani is unlike any player we’ve ever seen. Not only is he talented, but I think I’ve shown how Ohtani is a perfect fit for the Cardinals– he would solve the two biggest problems facing the 2023 team as just one single player! And I have no doubt that Cardinal fans would welcome Ohtani to St. Louis with open arms, increasing the probability that one of baseball’s best players of all-time signs with the Cardinals long-term.

I’m not saying this trade is likely to happen. Honestly, just thinking about it feels a bit silly. But if there is any chance at all, John Mozeliak and Michael Girsch should go all-in on acquiring Shohei Ohtani, because opportunities like this one won’t come around again.

When you look at the areas the team needs to improve and the player’s wishes to play on a contender, it becomes quite clear: Shohei Ohtani and the St. Louis Cardinals are a match made in baseball heaven.