Why St. Louis Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado is poised for a repeat

Nolan Arenado’s underlying stats point to continued dominance with the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado dazzled at the plate and in the field for the Cardinals in 2022, and most of his stats point to that continuing in 2023, provided he stays with the team.

If one looks at Arenado’s Statcast numbers, they will be underwhelmed. His exit velocity and expected weighted on-base average don’t jump off the page, but he has consistently outperformed these peripherals and should continue to do so.

Arenado is one of the best players in the league at pulling flyballs, and pulled flyballs are usually the best kind. In 2021, the league had a .777 wOBA on pulled flyballs, a .316 wOBA against flyballs up the middle, and a paltry .195 wOBA on flyballs to the opposite field.

It’s safe to say that Arenado is able to make the most of where he hits his flyballs, and he hits them a lot: 49.9% of his batted balls in 2022 were in the air, which was second in the league, and 47.9% of his batted balls were pulled, which is 11th.

What separates Arenado from the other players who led the league in flyballs is his comparatively minuscule strikeout rate. He was 49% below league average in his strikeout percentage, which was seventh-lowest in the league (that’s a good stat to be below average in!), and his isolated power stat is far higher than anyone else in the top nine. (The No. 10-ranked Jose Ramirez squeaked by Arenado in that department.)

Pulling your flyballs is a good recipe for success anywhere, but in homer-suppressant Busch Stadium, it’s almost a requirement since opposite-field flyballs usually don’t have the juice to get out. While almost any park for a hitter will be a downgrade from Coors Field, Arenado’s old stomping grounds, he has adjusted to Busch Stadium wonderfully.

So that’s the crux of Arenado’s success: He makes contact on pitches more than almost anyone else, and a large number of those are pulled flyballs, which are statistically the best. He is in the company of two very different types of players: the Kyle Schwarbers and Max Muncys, who pull the ball but whiff a lot, and the Nico Hoerners and Miguel Rojases, who rarely strike out but don’t hit flyballs much.

Arenado has found a rare balance to his game, and because of that, he should remain an elite hitter deep into his 30s.

He can still field, too.