St. Louis Cardinals: Four unknown stats that lead directly to wins

As we prepare for playoff baseball, let’s look at four hidden stats that consistently lead to a St. Louis Cardinal victory.

Once again, the St. Louis Cardinals are in the playoffs. While there are a few games left to be played this week in Pittsburgh, all attention has shifted towards the wildcard round. Although the opponent is yet to be officially determined, either the Philadelphia Phillies or Milwaukee Brewers will be in St. Louis for a best-of-three game series.

We’ve already attempted to predict the roster for the upcoming wild card game and first-year manager Oli Marmol has many decisions to make about the starting rotation and bullpen for round one. Now let’s turn to the offense, and take a closer look at what makes the Cardinals so successful.

All season, the Cardinals have blended veterans with emerging talent. It’s been a constant mixture of lineups and platoons and hot streaks– navigating this shifting landscape has been a remarkable achievement, and may have been worthy of league-wide recognition for Marmol.

There are a few underlying numbers, however, that show consistent success for the St. Louis Cardinals all season long. The postseason is a different beast than the long grind of the regular season, but I believe these trends will be important to watch as the playoffs begin.

I’m sure there are other keys to the Cardinals winning, but for now, let’s focus on the lineup. From the superstars to the rookies, here are four key statistics that have been key to Cardinal victories.

*All stats recorded before games played on Monday, October 3rd*

STAT NUMBER ONE: Not just 700

Although we are all aware of how impressive Albert Pujols’s season has been on an individual level, take a look at number five’s impact in the win-loss column:

Albert Pujols has hit a home run in 19 games this season, and appeared in 107. In those games, the St. Louis Cardinals are:

17-2 when Albert homers

47-41 when Albert plays and does not hit a home run

Just like the days of old– the Cardinals win when Albert hits a longball. And when Albert hits two home runs, the Cardinals are 4-0. Even more impressive, however, is how Albert’s resurgence has coincided with the Cardinals taking control of the NL Central.

Since the All-Star Break, the Cardinals are 36-18. In that time period, Albert has hit 19 of his home runs. Excluding Sunday’s loss against the Pirates, and taking note of three multi-home run games, that totals thirteen games in the second half of the season won by St. Louis where Albert hits a home run.

The Cardinals were a half a game behind the Brewers at that time, and now sit eight games up– thanks number five!

Moving forward, how does this impact the Cardinals in the playoffs? Well, four of Albert’s home runs have come against St. Louis’ potential opponents, the Phillies and the Brewers.

The interesting note is how Albert’s numbers change depending on where he hits in the batting order. Most of Albert’s at-bats have come from the 5th or 6th spot. Of note, however, is how well Albert has hit from the top of the order.

Batting first, second, or third this season, Pujols is 11-30 with seven home runs, 19 RBI, and only five strikeouts. Most of those appearances have come when Albert is used as a pinch hitter, so clearly there is an advantage to saving Pujols for the right spot. But now that Albert has raised his OPS+ to 107 against right handed pitchers, there’s no longer a reason to platoon him, either.

The numbers may be a bit confusing on how best to use Albert. But one thing is clear: no matter how he gets into the game, if Pujols goes yard, there’s a good chance the Cardinals will win.

NUMBER TWO: Rookie goes home

Here’s something that may surprise you: despite starting the season in the minors, Brendan Donovan is fifth on the team this year in games played (123). While we all know how versatile Donovan has become, he’s also been quite durable.

The stat I want to focus on, however, is not about how often Donovan takes the field. Rather, take a look at what happens when Donovan scores a run.

Brendan Donovan has scored in 49 games (of 123 games played). In those games, the St. Louis Cardinals are:

38-11 when Donovan scores

30-44 when Donovan plays and does not score

Twenty seven games over .500 as opposed to fourteen games under– that’s an incredible swing! Whether he leads off the Cardinal lineup or bats down in the order, as Donovan goes, so does the Cardinal offense.

Of course, the key to this stat is Donovan reaching base. Luckily he is quite good at that, posting an OBP of .394. This leads qualified rookies throughout baseball, and although he might fall short of qualifying for the official leaderboard by about forty plate appearances, Donovan’s OBP would rank fourth in the entire National League.

The numbers go even further– in games where Donovan has at least three plate appearances but fails to get on base, the Cardinals are 5-9. An astounding statistics, this means Donovan has reached base 90 of the 104 games where he has at least three plate appearances. Whether it’s a hit, walk, or hit by pitch, this guy just gets it done.

The second part of Donovan scoring, however, falls on his teammates. Eight players have driven home Brendan Donovan this year, with Paul Goldschmidt leading the way at 13 Donovans Batted In.

The impact of Brendan Donovan, an unheralded 7th round pick, is truly remarkable. Chances are high that Donovan will reach base this postseason– if he comes around to score, the odds of a Cardinal victory go way up.

NUMBER THREE: Two-headed Monster

You wouldn’t be surprised to know that the St. Louis Cardinals play well when Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado get hits. However, you might be interested in finding out how rarely the two MVP candidates perform their best on the same day. This brings us to our third key statistic.

There have been 49 games this season where Paul Goldschmidt records multiple hits, and 46 games where Nolan Arenado records multiple hits. In those games, the St. Louis Cardinals are:

35-14 when Goldy has multiple hits; 52-48 when Goldy has one hit or less

34-12 when Arenado has multiple hits; 52-49 when Arenado has one hit or less

13-2 when both Goldy and Arenado have multiple hits

The records are remarkably similar– Goldy has 49 multi-hit games this season, Arenado has 46. Yet somehow, only 15 of the games have overlapped!

Clearly, a multi-hit game from just one of the two sluggers increases the Cardinals’ chances of winning. But only 15 games where they both have two or more hits? That feels awfully low. The good news is three of those overlapping games came against a potential wildcard opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies

The backdrop for this section is the historic seasons of these two teammates. The last time two players from the same team finished first and second in MVP voting was in 2000, when Barry Bonds finished 2nd to Jeff Kent. It’s truly special the two-headed monster in the middle of the Cardinal lineup.

There’s a lot more to unpack here, but the numbers show three basic, yet, crucial lessons: first, the Cardinals usually win when both of their stars produce. Second, the Cardinals cannot rely solely on their stars to win. Third, and maybe most important, Goldschmidt and Arenado hit fairly well against the Phillies.