St. Louis Cardinals: Four unknown stats that lead directly to wins

As we prepare for playoff baseball, let’s look at four hidden stats that consistently lead to a St. Louis Cardinal victory.

Once again, the St. Louis Cardinals are in the playoffs. While there are a few games left to be played this week in Pittsburgh, all attention has shifted towards the wildcard round. Although the opponent is yet to be officially determined, either the Philadelphia Phillies or Milwaukee Brewers will be in St. Louis for a best-of-three game series.

We’ve already attempted to predict the roster for the upcoming wild card game and first-year manager Oli Marmol has many decisions to make about the starting rotation and bullpen for round one. Now let’s turn to the offense, and take a closer look at what makes the Cardinals so successful.

All season, the Cardinals have blended veterans with emerging talent. It’s been a constant mixture of lineups and platoons and hot streaks– navigating this shifting landscape has been a remarkable achievement, and may have been worthy of league-wide recognition for Marmol.

There are a few underlying numbers, however, that show consistent success for the St. Louis Cardinals all season long. The postseason is a different beast than the long grind of the regular season, but I believe these trends will be important to watch as the playoffs begin.

I’m sure there are other keys to the Cardinals winning, but for now, let’s focus on the lineup. From the superstars to the rookies, here are four key statistics that have been key to Cardinal victories.

*All stats recorded before games played on Monday, October 3rd*

STAT NUMBER ONE: Not just 700

Although we are all aware of how impressive Albert Pujols’s season has been on an individual level, take a look at number five’s impact in the win-loss column:

Albert Pujols has hit a home run in 19 games this season, and appeared in 107. In those games, the St. Louis Cardinals are:

17-2 when Albert homers

47-41 when Albert plays and does not hit a home run

Just like the days of old– the Cardinals win when Albert hits a longball. And when Albert hits two home runs, the Cardinals are 4-0. Even more impressive, however, is how Albert’s resurgence has coincided with the Cardinals taking control of the NL Central.

Since the All-Star Break, the Cardinals are 36-18. In that time period, Albert has hit 19 of his home runs. Excluding Sunday’s loss against the Pirates, and taking note of three multi-home run games, that totals thirteen games in the second half of the season won by St. Louis where Albert hits a home run.

The Cardinals were a half a game behind the Brewers at that time, and now sit eight games up– thanks number five!

Moving forward, how does this impact the Cardinals in the playoffs? Well, four of Albert’s home runs have come against St. Louis’ potential opponents, the Phillies and the Brewers.

The interesting note is how Albert’s numbers change depending on where he hits in the batting order. Most of Albert’s at-bats have come from the 5th or 6th spot. Of note, however, is how well Albert has hit from the top of the order.

Batting first, second, or third this season, Pujols is 11-30 with seven home runs, 19 RBI, and only five strikeouts. Most of those appearances have come when Albert is used as a pinch hitter, so clearly there is an advantage to saving Pujols for the right spot. But now that Albert has raised his OPS+ to 107 against right handed pitchers, there’s no longer a reason to platoon him, either.

The numbers may be a bit confusing on how best to use Albert. But one thing is clear: no matter how he gets into the game, if Pujols goes yard, there’s a good chance the Cardinals will win.

NUMBER THREE: Two-headed Monster

You wouldn’t be surprised to know that the St. Louis Cardinals play well when Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado get hits. However, you might be interested in finding out how rarely the two MVP candidates perform their best on the same day. This brings us to our third key statistic.

There have been 49 games this season where Paul Goldschmidt records multiple hits, and 46 games where Nolan Arenado records multiple hits. In those games, the St. Louis Cardinals are:

35-14 when Goldy has multiple hits; 52-48 when Goldy has one hit or less

34-12 when Arenado has multiple hits; 52-49 when Arenado has one hit or less

13-2 when both Goldy and Arenado have multiple hits

The records are remarkably similar– Goldy has 49 multi-hit games this season, Arenado has 46. Yet somehow, only 15 of the games have overlapped!

Clearly, a multi-hit game from just one of the two sluggers increases the Cardinals’ chances of winning. But only 15 games where they both have two or more hits? That feels awfully low. The good news is three of those overlapping games came against a potential wildcard opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies

The backdrop for this section is the historic seasons of these two teammates. The last time two players from the same team finished first and second in MVP voting was in 2000, when Barry Bonds finished 2nd to Jeff Kent. It’s truly special the two-headed monster in the middle of the Cardinal lineup.

There’s a lot more to unpack here, but the numbers show three basic, yet, crucial lessons: first, the Cardinals usually win when both of their stars produce. Second, the Cardinals cannot rely solely on their stars to win. Third, and maybe most important, Goldschmidt and Arenado hit fairly well against the Phillies.

NUMBER FOUR: Winning combination

One of the biggest questions for manager Oli Marmol heading into the postseason is who the Cardinals should start in the outfield. There are a lot of factors to consider here– health, platoon splits, defensive value, who’s hot– and I’m not sure there is one right answer.

One stat to consider, however, is simply which players win the most. While it may be an oversimplification of a complex issue, there is something to be said for wins and losses mattering the most in a short playoff series.

Five current St. Louis Cardinals have started over 35 games in the outfield this season. In those games, the St. Louis Cardinals are:

52-27 when Lars Nootbaar starts, 40-40 when Lars Nootbaar does not start

60-47 when Dylan Carlson starts, 32-20 when Dylan Carlson does not start

47-24 when Corey Dickerson starts, 45-43 when Corey Dickerson does not start

52-36 when Tyler O’Neill starts, 40-31 when Tyler O’Neill does not start,

29-33 when Juan Yepez starts, 63-34 when Yepez does not start

First, I will acknowledge the numbers are a but off. Each of these five have started games at DH, and Yepez has recorded starts in the infield. However, the point of this exercise is impact when the players are in the starting lineup.

On first glance, the starting outfield is obvious. Lars Nootbaar in right, Dylan Carlson in center, and a Tyler O’Neill/Corey Dickerson platoon takes left.

Unfortunately for Juan Yepez, he was not with the major league team for much of the second-half hot streak. He’s been fantastic this season, and the numbers may not reflect how he helped keep the team afloat during the first few months.

In addition, the Cardinals have a weirdly good record when Dylan Carlson doesn’t start. Carlson has entered the game as a defensive replacement many times this season, so he’s found ways to impact the game off the bench. But unlike the other Opening Day outfielders, there is a pretty solid winning percentage when he is not in a starting spot.

The most obvious correlation, however, is that Lars Nootbaar wins baseball games. There’s a stark contrast in record when Nootbaar is in the lineup compared to games he doesn’t play. No matter who the Cardinals face this weekend, there is no doubt in my mind that Lars Nootbaar deserves to be the starting right fielder.

After Nootbaar, I’d still go with Carlson in center field. As for left field, only the team knows the health of Tyler O’Neill. That decision will remain a mystery.

There you have it, four little-known stats that lead to St. Louis Cardinal success. This postseason, watch out for Nootbaar’s spot in the lineup, if Albert hits a home run, Donovan scoring, and both Goldy and Nolan recording multiple hits. Just one of the four increases the Cardinal’s chance of victory.