St. Louis Cardinals: Four unknown stats that lead directly to wins

As we prepare for playoff baseball, let’s look at four hidden stats that consistently lead to a St. Louis Cardinal victory.

Once again, the St. Louis Cardinals are in the playoffs. While there are a few games left to be played this week in Pittsburgh, all attention has shifted towards the wildcard round. Although the opponent is yet to be officially determined, either the Philadelphia Phillies or Milwaukee Brewers will be in St. Louis for a best-of-three game series.

We’ve already attempted to predict the roster for the upcoming wild card game and first-year manager Oli Marmol has many decisions to make about the starting rotation and bullpen for round one. Now let’s turn to the offense, and take a closer look at what makes the Cardinals so successful.

All season, the Cardinals have blended veterans with emerging talent. It’s been a constant mixture of lineups and platoons and hot streaks– navigating this shifting landscape has been a remarkable achievement, and may have been worthy of league-wide recognition for Marmol.

There are a few underlying numbers, however, that show consistent success for the St. Louis Cardinals all season long. The postseason is a different beast than the long grind of the regular season, but I believe these trends will be important to watch as the playoffs begin.

I’m sure there are other keys to the Cardinals winning, but for now, let’s focus on the lineup. From the superstars to the rookies, here are four key statistics that have been key to Cardinal victories.

*All stats recorded before games played on Monday, October 3rd*

NUMBER TWO: Rookie goes home

Here’s something that may surprise you: despite starting the season in the minors, Brendan Donovan is fifth on the team this year in games played (123). While we all know how versatile Donovan has become, he’s also been quite durable.

The stat I want to focus on, however, is not about how often Donovan takes the field. Rather, take a look at what happens when Donovan scores a run.

Brendan Donovan has scored in 49 games (of 123 games played). In those games, the St. Louis Cardinals are:

38-11 when Donovan scores

30-44 when Donovan plays and does not score

Twenty seven games over .500 as opposed to fourteen games under– that’s an incredible swing! Whether he leads off the Cardinal lineup or bats down in the order, as Donovan goes, so does the Cardinal offense.

Of course, the key to this stat is Donovan reaching base. Luckily he is quite good at that, posting an OBP of .394. This leads qualified rookies throughout baseball, and although he might fall short of qualifying for the official leaderboard by about forty plate appearances, Donovan’s OBP would rank fourth in the entire National League.

The numbers go even further– in games where Donovan has at least three plate appearances but fails to get on base, the Cardinals are 5-9. An astounding statistics, this means Donovan has reached base 90 of the 104 games where he has at least three plate appearances. Whether it’s a hit, walk, or hit by pitch, this guy just gets it done.

The second part of Donovan scoring, however, falls on his teammates. Eight players have driven home Brendan Donovan this year, with Paul Goldschmidt leading the way at 13 Donovans Batted In.

The impact of Brendan Donovan, an unheralded 7th round pick, is truly remarkable. Chances are high that Donovan will reach base this postseason– if he comes around to score, the odds of a Cardinal victory go way up.

NUMBER THREE: Two-headed Monster

You wouldn’t be surprised to know that the St. Louis Cardinals play well when Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado get hits. However, you might be interested in finding out how rarely the two MVP candidates perform their best on the same day. This brings us to our third key statistic.

There have been 49 games this season where Paul Goldschmidt records multiple hits, and 46 games where Nolan Arenado records multiple hits. In those games, the St. Louis Cardinals are:

35-14 when Goldy has multiple hits; 52-48 when Goldy has one hit or less

34-12 when Arenado has multiple hits; 52-49 when Arenado has one hit or less

13-2 when both Goldy and Arenado have multiple hits

The records are remarkably similar– Goldy has 49 multi-hit games this season, Arenado has 46. Yet somehow, only 15 of the games have overlapped!

Clearly, a multi-hit game from just one of the two sluggers increases the Cardinals’ chances of winning. But only 15 games where they both have two or more hits? That feels awfully low. The good news is three of those overlapping games came against a potential wildcard opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies

The backdrop for this section is the historic seasons of these two teammates. The last time two players from the same team finished first and second in MVP voting was in 2000, when Barry Bonds finished 2nd to Jeff Kent. It’s truly special the two-headed monster in the middle of the Cardinal lineup.

There’s a lot more to unpack here, but the numbers show three basic, yet, crucial lessons: first, the Cardinals usually win when both of their stars produce. Second, the Cardinals cannot rely solely on their stars to win. Third, and maybe most important, Goldschmidt and Arenado hit fairly well against the Phillies.

NUMBER FOUR: Winning combination

One of the biggest questions for manager Oli Marmol heading into the postseason is who the Cardinals should start in the outfield. There are a lot of factors to consider here– health, platoon splits, defensive value, who’s hot– and I’m not sure there is one right answer.

One stat to consider, however, is simply which players win the most. While it may be an oversimplification of a complex issue, there is something to be said for wins and losses mattering the most in a short playoff series.

Five current St. Louis Cardinals have started over 35 games in the outfield this season. In those games, the St. Louis Cardinals are:

52-27 when Lars Nootbaar starts, 40-40 when Lars Nootbaar does not start

60-47 when Dylan Carlson starts, 32-20 when Dylan Carlson does not start

47-24 when Corey Dickerson starts, 45-43 when Corey Dickerson does not start

52-36 when Tyler O’Neill starts, 40-31 when Tyler O’Neill does not start,

29-33 when Juan Yepez starts, 63-34 when Yepez does not start

First, I will acknowledge the numbers are a but off. Each of these five have started games at DH, and Yepez has recorded starts in the infield. However, the point of this exercise is impact when the players are in the starting lineup.

On first glance, the starting outfield is obvious. Lars Nootbaar in right, Dylan Carlson in center, and a Tyler O’Neill/Corey Dickerson platoon takes left.

Unfortunately for Juan Yepez, he was not with the major league team for much of the second-half hot streak. He’s been fantastic this season, and the numbers may not reflect how he helped keep the team afloat during the first few months.

In addition, the Cardinals have a weirdly good record when Dylan Carlson doesn’t start. Carlson has entered the game as a defensive replacement many times this season, so he’s found ways to impact the game off the bench. But unlike the other Opening Day outfielders, there is a pretty solid winning percentage when he is not in a starting spot.

The most obvious correlation, however, is that Lars Nootbaar wins baseball games. There’s a stark contrast in record when Nootbaar is in the lineup compared to games he doesn’t play. No matter who the Cardinals face this weekend, there is no doubt in my mind that Lars Nootbaar deserves to be the starting right fielder.

After Nootbaar, I’d still go with Carlson in center field. As for left field, only the team knows the health of Tyler O’Neill. That decision will remain a mystery.

There you have it, four little-known stats that lead to St. Louis Cardinal success. This postseason, watch out for Nootbaar’s spot in the lineup, if Albert hits a home run, Donovan scoring, and both Goldy and Nolan recording multiple hits. Just one of the four increases the Cardinal’s chance of victory.