Cardinals: What is Tyler O’Neill’s future with St. Louis?

Tyler O’Neill was supposed to be the third fiddle to Goldschmidt and Arenado, but now his future is in question.

The St. Louis Cardinals came into the 2022 season with high expectations for their offense, due in large part to the emergence of outfielder Tyler O’Neill.

Like many others, I thought Tyler O’Neill was ready to take the league by storm this season and prove why he belongs in the conversation with some of the best in the game. Last season, O’Neill slashed .286/.352/.560 with 34 HR and 80 RBI while finishing 8th in MVP voting and his second career Gold Glove. In our 2022 Redbird Rants predictions article, I said O’Neill would be the MVP of the Cardinals and finish top 5 in MVP voting.

Instead, nothing seems to have gone the 27-year old’s way. O’Neill has only appeared in 96 games due to a variety of injuries, and when he’s been on the field, he has slashed .228/.308/.392 with 14 HR and 58 RBI, and has now landed on the IL with another injury. There have been times that O’Neill has looked overmatched at the plate, and yet he still maintains a .700 OPS, 14 SB, and is creeping up on his RBI total from 2021 in 42 less games.

Depending on who you ask, there are a variety of opinions on O’Neill. Some still believe that the outfielder has the ability to replicate his production in 2021 and that his injuries are what is holding him back, and others see his monster breakout as a fluke stretch, and O’Neill is just a really great defender with streaky power at the plate.

I remain one of the biggest Tyler O’Neill fans around, but you have to imagine the Cardinals front office will be having conversations about O’Neill’s future with the club after this letdown of a season. Let’s breakdown the good, the bad, and what the Cardinals will most likely do with their outfielder.

Tyler O’Neill still has the tools and advance metrics for success

When you watch O’Neill in the box or roaming the in outfield, it is hard not to get excited about what he can do. The Canadian has elite power and speed, and when he is in a groove, he looks like a true five-tool player who can change the game in a variety of ways.

O’Neill’s .700 OPS in 2022 is pretty surprising when you consider how bad it has looked at times, and shows that he is the kind of player who is going to fight in grind, even when things are not going well. When O’Neill does not have his powerful bat, he is fighting for infield singles, grinding out walks, and doing everything he can to make an impact.

Looking at some of his advanced stats on Baseball Savant, O’Neill has seem noticeable drops in things like Hardhit%, average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, and more. All of this makes sense with the eye test and will have to be worked on over the offseason. What is interesting though is that in the midst of these struggles, O’Neill has improved his BB% drastically and has seem slight improvements in his Whiff% and K%.

The holes in O’Neill’s game entering the season centered around his high strikeout rate and lack of walks. Seeing this improvement in his game could set him up for even more success if he is able to turn around the funk he is in.

Expecting O’Neill to be a .286 hitter is probably unrealistic, but if O’Neill’s walk rate can remain elevated or even improve more while hitting more like .260, he could still get on base at a high percentage and do damage when he makes contact.

The great thing about O’Neill is that he maintains a nice floor with his elite defense and base running. Even when he is slumping, he makes plays in the field, steals bases, and can score on plays that many others cannot. It may be frustrating to know he could “do more” at the plate, but he is still not a liability even when his bat is not showing up.

Manager Oli Marmol has maintained the position that this team is at its best when O’Neill is playing well, and that remains true. The Cardinals lack a true third elite bat, and although Albert Pujols has stepped into that role as of late, there is no clear third guy for 2023. Jordan Walker may develop into that, but the Cardinals need to have veterans that they can rely on in the meantime.

Injuries and incontinency are beginning to add up for Tyler O’Neill

Availability and consistency may be two of the most valuable things a player can provide to their club. Teams want to be able to count on their guys to play when called upon and to know what to expect from them.

Unforuntaely, O’Neill has not been marked by either of these things as of late. O’Neill has played in just 65% of the teams games this season, and that number will drop even more with his new IL stint. Although injuries have always been something to monitor with O’Neill, it has never been as bad as this year.

For as “streaky” as fans and analysts have called O’Neill, last season, the outfielder was actually maintained an .800 OPS in all but one month of the season, and showed the ability to consistently make an impact at the plate for the Cardinals. Maybe it’s the constant IL stints, but O’Neill has not maintained any sense of consistent production in 2022. Maintaining a .228/.308/.392 slash line this season is far from the player that St. Louis needs O’Neill to be.

The Cardinals do maintain two more years of team control on O’Neill., but after 2024, the Scott Boras client will want to test free agency. Boras clients tend to maximize every dollar they can, and if O’Neill cannot be relied upon by St. Louis, they will not be interested in bringing him back.

With the emergence of Lars Nootbaar, the club’s faith in Dylan Carlson, and up and coming talent like Walker, Alec Burleson, and company, the club may be willing to part with O’Neill if the right offer comes their way. This seems like a rather drastic move, but many though the same about a Harrison Bader trade before the deadline.