Cardinals: What is Tyler O’Neill’s future with St. Louis?

Tyler O’Neill still has the tools and advance metrics for success

When you watch O’Neill in the box or roaming the in outfield, it is hard not to get excited about what he can do. The Canadian has elite power and speed, and when he is in a groove, he looks like a true five-tool player who can change the game in a variety of ways.

O’Neill’s .700 OPS in 2022 is pretty surprising when you consider how bad it has looked at times, and shows that he is the kind of player who is going to fight in grind, even when things are not going well. When O’Neill does not have his powerful bat, he is fighting for infield singles, grinding out walks, and doing everything he can to make an impact.

Looking at some of his advanced stats on Baseball Savant, O’Neill has seem noticeable drops in things like Hardhit%, average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, and more. All of this makes sense with the eye test and will have to be worked on over the offseason. What is interesting though is that in the midst of these struggles, O’Neill has improved his BB% drastically and has seem slight improvements in his Whiff% and K%.

The holes in O’Neill’s game entering the season centered around his high strikeout rate and lack of walks. Seeing this improvement in his game could set him up for even more success if he is able to turn around the funk he is in.

Expecting O’Neill to be a .286 hitter is probably unrealistic, but if O’Neill’s walk rate can remain elevated or even improve more while hitting more like .260, he could still get on base at a high percentage and do damage when he makes contact.

The great thing about O’Neill is that he maintains a nice floor with his elite defense and base running. Even when he is slumping, he makes plays in the field, steals bases, and can score on plays that many others cannot. It may be frustrating to know he could “do more” at the plate, but he is still not a liability even when his bat is not showing up.

Manager Oli Marmol has maintained the position that this team is at its best when O’Neill is playing well, and that remains true. The Cardinals lack a true third elite bat, and although Albert Pujols has stepped into that role as of late, there is no clear third guy for 2023. Jordan Walker may develop into that, but the Cardinals need to have veterans that they can rely on in the meantime.

Injuries and incontinency are beginning to add up for Tyler O’Neill

Availability and consistency may be two of the most valuable things a player can provide to their club. Teams want to be able to count on their guys to play when called upon and to know what to expect from them.

Unforuntaely, O’Neill has not been marked by either of these things as of late. O’Neill has played in just 65% of the teams games this season, and that number will drop even more with his new IL stint. Although injuries have always been something to monitor with O’Neill, it has never been as bad as this year.

For as “streaky” as fans and analysts have called O’Neill, last season, the outfielder was actually maintained an .800 OPS in all but one month of the season, and showed the ability to consistently make an impact at the plate for the Cardinals. Maybe it’s the constant IL stints, but O’Neill has not maintained any sense of consistent production in 2022. Maintaining a .228/.308/.392 slash line this season is far from the player that St. Louis needs O’Neill to be.

The Cardinals do maintain two more years of team control on O’Neill., but after 2024, the Scott Boras client will want to test free agency. Boras clients tend to maximize every dollar they can, and if O’Neill cannot be relied upon by St. Louis, they will not be interested in bringing him back.

With the emergence of Lars Nootbaar, the club’s faith in Dylan Carlson, and up and coming talent like Walker, Alec Burleson, and company, the club may be willing to part with O’Neill if the right offer comes their way. This seems like a rather drastic move, but many though the same about a Harrison Bader trade before the deadline.

The Cardinals should see if Tyler O’Neill bounces back in 2023

If you could not tell by the “bad” section, even this disappointing season O’Neill this season should not be seen as a lost cause for St. Louis.

Expectations for the outfielder were probably too high coming into 2022, and given an offseason to work on his game and even his body if needed, O’Neill could once again be the impact bat that St. Louis was hoping for.

O’Neill does not need to be his 2021 self to be an outstanding player for the Cardinals. Does he have the ability to be a top 10 MVP candidate gain? Yes. But would the Cardinals gladly take an All-Star level outfielder or even slightly below that? Absolutely.

O’Neill has far too much talent to give up on. It is one thing to let go of a player that has been all promise but never shown the flashes, but O’Neill was a star last season for St. Louis, and giving up on him now at his lowest value and team control remaining would seem like a panic move.

The Cardinals also lack sure options to replace O’Neill. Walker certainty takes an outfield spot in 2023, but Carlson has struggled just as much as O’Neill this season, and Nootbaar has really only come alive for a few months, and is beginning to struggle big time again. If the Cardinals had a stacked outfield, they could potentially move on from O’Neill, but that is just not the case yet.

St. Louis is the kind of organization that can help O’Neill turn things around. He is a hard worker, is a great teammate, and plays the game the right way. Based on the person and player O’Neill is, nobody should be betting against him. And even if he fails again, the potential of seeing him back to form is to great to pass on.

It will be interesting to see how St. Louis shuffles their outfield over the offseason. The club has a lot of interesting names that deserve a shot in the major leagues, and it is likely that the Cardinals move on from a few of those names to improve the roster elsewhere. Whatever happens though, St. Louis should give O’Neill the Opening Day start in 2023 and allow him the chance to prove he still has that star potential.