After going on an absolute tear in AAA Memphis to start 2022 by hitting 15 HR in just 34 games, Nolan Gorman received a call-up to St. Louis and has been a valuable contributor to the club this season.
In 270 ABs, Gorman is hitting .233/.303/.433 with 14 HR and 35 RBIs. While some may have had higher expectations for Gorman, these are great numbers from a 22-year old making his debut as a power first bat for a contending team. Gorman faces great pressure night in and night out to outperform guys like Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan to earn playing time.
At his current pace, if Gorman were to have about 550 at-bats (average for an everyday starter), he would have 29 HRs on the season and 24 doubles. This kind of power from the second base spot, as a rookie, it just rare. Assuming Gorman continues to develop, it is fair to think he will hit at least .250-.260 with 35+ HR in his prime.
Locking up this kind of bat is worth the risk for St. Louis. He would not command the amount of money a Julio Rodriguez or Wander Franco did, but could look for something in the ballpark of Michael Harris II’s 8 year, $72 million extension. This in my mind would be the ceiling for a contract with Gorman, as he plays a less premier position.
Once Gorman begins hitting arbitration, his salary will skyrocket and once free agent comes around, a $150-$200 million deal could be possible if all goes to plan. Locking him up now at a team friendly number could give St. Louis a lot of flexibility down the line.