How new rules could help and hinder the St. Louis Cardinals

The shift is gone; larger bases and pitch clocks are here. The St. Louis Cardinals will need to adapt accordingly.

Major League Baseball announced today that it will implement new rules for the 2023 season. The defensive shift will be a thing of the past, as will pitchers taking their sweet time between pitches. Additionally, first, second and third base will be 3 square inches larger. The St. Louis Cardinals will need to adjust their philosophies to maximize the value of these changes and mitigate their drawbacks.

The ban of the shift is the biggest change and the one that will likely affect baseball the most. The shift has become ubiquitous across the sport over the past five years, but with two infielders now entrenched on both sides of the bases, offensive production should increase.

The players who will benefit most from the shift’s eradication are dead-pull hitters. Paul DeJong, Tyler O’Neill, Nolan Gorman, Albert Pujols and Juan Yepez all have pulled ground ball rates above 60%. While Pujols will be gone next season and DeJong’s future with the Cardinals is in doubt, O’Neill could be on track for a monster rebound season, and Gorman and Yepez could provide value for years to come.

However, not all hitters will be aided by this change. Brendan Donovan hits the ball on the ground over half the time, 31.4% of the time to the opposite field. While his plate discipline and ability to grind out at-bats will keep him in the lineup, it’s possible that his production could decline as balls that he hits the other way are gobbled up instead of squeaking through.

Contact hitters in general will be less valuable around baseball, which has already largely become a three-true-outcomes sport. Since most power hitters are pull hitters and won’t have the shift to contend with anymore, there will be little reason for players who are generally just singles-slappers because the power hitters can now hit singles more easily as well.

On the pitching end, the Cardinals could be in some trouble. The Cardinals possess one of the most grounder-friendly staffs in the league and rely on their defense to vacuum up the balls in the infield. With the shift gone, ground balls will become hits far more often, so the Cardinals will likely need to tinker with their rotation to get more strikeouts, a stat the rotation ranks near the bottom in.

Fielding will become more important, and the Cardinals’ defense has deteriorated a bit since Nolan Gorman became the regular second baseman. With Pujols and possibly Corey Dickerson not on the team next year, the designated hitter spot should be open for Gorman or Yepez. If DeJong can’t find his stride, there could be an open spot at second base with Tommy Edman likely becoming the regular shortstop.

The change of larger bases looked more beneficial before the trades of two of the Cardinals’ fastest players, Harrison Bader and Edmundo Sosa. O’Neill remains a speed threat, but the Cardinals aren’t as likely to steal as many bases as they were with those two still on the team. Yadier Molina has also confirmed his retirement after this season, so his strong arm and reputation won’t be around to minimize opposing thefts.

Finally, the pitch clock should only be an issue for a couple of pitchers, namely Giovanny Gallegos and Dakota Hudson, who both tend to take a while between pitches. They’ll have to step out of their comfort zones and be productive when being forced to work quickly. But it’s likely to affect hitters as well, according to Belleville News-Democrat beat writer Jeff Jones.

With these changes on the horizon, teams will be scurrying to alter their strategies. Everyone will be looking for an edge and a way to take advantage of the new rules, and while the Cardinals could face some challenges regarding the shift ban, especially on the pitching side, they’ll almost certainly emerge as a contender once again when everything is settled.