Comparing the St. Louis Cardinals rotation to other NL playoff teams

ST. LOUIS, MO - SEPTEMBER 03: Starter Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium on September 3, 2022 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)
ST. LOUIS, MO - SEPTEMBER 03: Starter Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium on September 3, 2022 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)
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The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to make a deep playoff run, and it will hinge upon how their rotation stacks against other NL playoff teams.

The St. Louis Cardinals have built up a big lead in the NL Central and now look like a legitimate contender to make the World Series.

One of the major flaws facing the Cardinals most of the season was their starting rotation. At one point, their rotation consisted of Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Andrew Pallante, and two spot starters. The rotation has come a long way with the acquisitions of Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana, as well as the return of Jack Flaherty.

When postseason baseball begins, pitching tends to determine who wins a series. As great as it is to have an elite offense, elite pitching has the power to hold any offense in check. The Cardinals can slug with any team in the league, but they will have to put up quality innings if they expect to go far.

If I had to guess, the Cardinals rotation will likely stack up like this: Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, and Miles Mikolas.

Here is how the St. Louis Cardinals rotation stacks up against current National League contenders. I will compare their rotation to teams who are currently in the playoff picture (Dodgers, Mets, Braves, Padres, and Phillies). I’ll give the edge to one team or “push” if they are even.

Philadelphia Phillies

Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson, Noah Syndergaard

The Phillies have a great 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation with Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola, but their rotation thins out quite a bit after those two.

Wheeler finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young voting in 2021 and has a 3.07 ERA with 148 SO this season. His ability to create swings and misses with his stuff is exactly what you are looking for out of your number one starter. Nola arguably can be even more dangerous when he’s on, sporting a 3.35 ERA with 200 SO this year. Wainwright and Montgomery can stack up against the pair, but they will be intense matchups to say the least.

Where the Cardinals really win out is in the matchups with Kyle Gibson and rumored deadline target Noah Syndergaard. Both players are having down years, with 4.48 and 4.63 ERAs respectively, and both likely will not go deep into starts either. Both Flaherty and Mikolas have the ability to put up ace like performances and go 6+ innings, giving St. Louis the clear edge against Philadelphia.

Verdict: St. Louis

Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals in position. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images)
Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals in position. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images) /

San Diego Padres

Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger 

The Padres have a much deeper rotation than the Phillies, but the Cardinals have really closed the gap since the trade deadline.

Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are a formidable duo at the top of their rotation. Musgrove is a borderline Cy Young candidate with a 3.16 ERA with 152 SO this season. He recently received a  5-year, $100 million deal from the Padres for his career season. Darvish has been one of the better pitchers in baseball for a long time now, and his 3.31 ERA should be no surprise to fans around the league.

Similar to the matchup with the Phillies, the Cardinals should matchup well with Musgrove and Darvish head to head. The real difference is how they matchup with the rest of their rotation.

Blake Snell is a former AL Cy Young winner and has a career 2.83 ERA in the postseason. Historically, Snell has not gone deep into games, which if that remains the case, could work St. Louis’ favor as the Padres bullpen is shaky. Clevinger has a 3.96 ERA on the season, but has the ability to pitch much better than his ERA currently shows. Flaherty and Mikolas should have the edge still, but it’s much closer than the Phillies.

Verdict: St. Louis

Jacob deGrom #48 (L) and Max Scherzer #21 of the New York Mets talk in the dugout. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Jacob deGrom #48 (L) and Max Scherzer #21 of the New York Mets talk in the dugout. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

New York Mets

Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer*, Chris Bassitt, David Peterson

For most of 2022, the New York Mets have been a scary proposition come October. The thought of facing Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer in a 5 or 7 game series should strike fear in the hearts of any team. Scherzer’s recent injury puts this into question though.

At the moment, Scherzer’s injury is being deemed as “non-significant”, but the Mets co-ace has battled injuries already this year and his health must be monitored down the stretch.

deGrom and Scherzer are a historic duo when healthy. Since returning from the IL, deGrom has a 1.66 ERA in 7 starts with 63 SO in 43.1 innings. Scherzer has been right behind him, with a 2.26 ERA and 153 SO in 127.2 innings of work. The Cardinals real hope in any series against those two would be to grind out good at-bats, scrap a few runs, and get to their bullpen as quickly as possible. If deGrom or Scherzer are on though, there just isn’t much you can do.

Bassitt and Peterson are great back end of any playoff rotation, with 3.24 and 3.32 ERAs respectively. Bassitt was acquired from the Athletics this offseason and Peterson is coming into his own after showing a lot of promise in 2020.

While the St. Louis rotation has improved drastically, it just is not in the same class as the Mets if they are full healthy.

Advantage: Mets

Spencer Strider #65 of the Atlanta Braves delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Spencer Strider #65 of the Atlanta Braves delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Atlanta Braves

Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton

Not quite the star power that the Mets boast, but Max Fried and Spencer Strider may be just as deadly of a combo for St. Louis to deal with.

Fried is an NL Cy Young candidate, with a 2.48 ERA in 163.1 innings this season. Strider has broke on the scene this year and is the favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year, sporting a 2.69 ERA and 183 SO in 120.2 innings of work. On top of that, the duo has dominated St. Louis this season.

Strider, in 12 innings of work against the Cardinals, has 19 SO while allowing just 1 run on 8 hits. Fried is his only start against St. Louis went 6 shutout innings with 4 SO while allowing just 5 hits. St. Louis has their work cut out for them if they are going to win games that Fried or Strider start. Luckily, Wainwright and Montgomery have the ability to keep the Braves in check, but it will be tough.

Kyle Wright is another name that does not carry a ton of excitement but is pitching like one of like a legit playoff starter with a 3.23 RA in 26 starts this season. Veteran Charlie Morton has struggled this season with a 4.01 ERA, but has 16 career starts in the postseason and a 3.35 ERA, making him an extremely valuable 4th starter.

While it would make sense to lean Atlanta with their elite top of their rotation and really solid 3-4 combo, the fact that the Cardinals 1-4 may be a more balanced unit. Flaherty and Mikolas can both easily pitch like the number one starter of this staff, meaning they probably get a slight edge in those later matchups.

Verdict: Push

Tyler Anderson #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Tyler Anderson #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson 

For as elite of duos that the Mets and Braves have, the Dodgers have by far the deepest and most formidable rotation in the National League.

Despite missing ace Walker Buehler, the Dodgers have two Cy Young candidates and two other legit All-Star level starters. Tony Gonsolin has been one of the breakout performers of the 2022 season, with a 2.10 ERA in 128.1 innings of work. Urias has been just dominate, with a 2.29 ERA in 145.2 innings of work.

To round out their rotation, Los Angeles has lefties Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson, guys who could be at the top of most other team’s rotations themselves. Kershaw, a future Hall of Famer, has struggled against St. Louis historically, but is still an elite starter carrying a 2.26 ERA, and Anderson is right behind him at 2.73.

It’s clear that the Cardinals do not matchup talent wise with the Dodgers’ rotation. What St. Louis may have in their favor is that 3 of the 4 starters are left handed, which is a major strength of the St. Louis lineup. This allows the club to start left-handed mashers like Albert Pujols, Dylan Carlson, and Tommy Edman alongside Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Next. Re-ranking the ceilings of Cardinals outfielders. dark

Regardless, when just stacking up the rotations, the Dodgers are the class of the league.

Verdict: Dodgers

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