Re-ranking the ceilings of the St. Louis Cardinals outfielders

The St. Louis Cardinals have had some shakeups in the outfield this season, who has the highest ceiling out of the bunch?

The St. Louis Cardinals began the 2022 season with one of the most dynamic, young outfields in baseball in the form of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson. Each of the three have underperformed for various reasons, and Bader was shipped to the Yankees for starter Jordan Montgomery at the deadline.

Back in December, I ranked the ceilings of O’Neill, Bader, Carlson, and Lars Nootbaar, but a lot has changed, both with those players and the organization’s depth at the position. It is time to re-rank the ceilings of the Cardinals outfielders.

This time around, I’ll be ranking O’Neill, Carlson, and Nootbaar ceilings along with the top two outfield prospects in the system, Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson. This is a deep list of talent, and all five players have an argument to be high on this list.

5. Alec Burleson

The 92nd ranked prospect in all of baseball, Alec Burleson has been mashing the baseball in AAA this season.

Burleson has slashed .325/.366/.527 with 20 HR and 84 RBI in 106 games for Memphis and looks ready to hit big league pitching already. Burleson has not been a highly regarded prospect until this season, but his mix of great contact and power has put him on the national radar. If he is mashing like this, why would his ceiling be lower than the rest?

Burleson’s biggest flaw is his long-term defensive positioning. He will likely be a below average corner outfielder defensively and projects to be a designated hitter for most of his career. The 23-year old can be a great major leaguer for a long time despite his defensive limitations, especially with the universal DH, but the other names on this list provide at least above average defensive abilities with their impact bats.

4. Lars Nootbaar

Ranking spots 2-4 were by far the hardest on this list, and due to the short sample size, Lars Nootbaar fell to fourth on this list.

Fourth on the list back in December, Nootbaar retains his ranking, but has closed the gap significantly between himself and other outfielders in this organization. Nootbaar has gone from a likely fourth outfielder his whole career to a guy who is raking at at the plate and providing great defense.

On the season, Nootbaar is carrying a .838 OPS and 140 OPS+, but over the last 28 days, has seen that OPS rise to 1.017 and an OPS+ of 187. The 24 year old can mash against right handed pitching now, and his glove has made the loss of Bader hard to notice on a nightly  basis. Nootbaar can play center field, but is best utilized as a corner outfielder with his elite arm and great range.

Nootbaar is quite the fan favorite now, and if he continues his current pace, will likely rise up these rankings very soon. For now, his ranking in fourth is due to a mixture of a short sample size and great belief in the guys ahead of him. No shame for Nootbaar finishing behind these next three guys.

3. Dylan Carlson

While it is tempting to overreact to his rough stretches since the trade deadline, Dylan Carlson still provides a ceiling of an elite defensive center fielder who can get on base at a high clip with good slugging. Those players are few and far between in the major leagues.

The biggest thing holding Carlson back right now is his ability to hit right-handed pitching. Against right-handers this year, the 23-year old is slashing .210/.290/.343 in 307 PA. For his big league career, Carlson is slashing .227/.306/.383 in 893 PA, a very large sample size to say this is a hole in his game.

On the flip side, Carlson destroys left-handed pitching, slashing .326/.385/.508 in 271 PA in his career. If Carlson could be 60-70% the hitter against right-handers that he is against  southpaws, the switch-hitter would quickly become one of the best outfielders in the game.

Even if he never really figures it out against right-handed pitching, his elite defense mixes with his slash line against lefties gives him a pretty high floor in the big leagues. With the promise of Carlson, one would expect he at least becomes competent against righties, which will be important if he wants to have consistent playing time. The Cardinals wealth of options at the position puts the pressure on Carlson to turn things around quickly.

2. Tyler O’Neill

Injuries have plagued Tyler O’Neill this season, and when he’s had extended runs at the plate in the bigs, he has started to figure out his swing once again. The Canadian has been heating up once again as of late and is beginning to look like the 2021 version many fell in love with.

O’Neill over the last 14 days has a .916 OPS, and the last week it has raised to 1.177. Tyler’s ability to mash a baseball, play elite defense, and be a game changer on the basepaths has made him a tantalizing talent, and when it all comes together, few in baseball have a ceiling like him.

On the season, the 27-year old is slashing .231/.306/.388 with 12 HR and 55 RBI. If O’Neill keeps up his current pace, he could easily see his OPS rise above .700, which would be a huge win after how rough of a start he had an how many injuries the slugger battled.

The club’s continued faith in O’Neill shows you just how high the organization believes his ceiling is as well. St. Louis knows that when O’Neill gets it going at the plate, he is an MVP level talent and gives the Cardinals a three-headed monster that no other team in baseball can compete with. In 2021, O’Neill slashed .286/.352/.540 with 34 HR and 80 RBI while finishing 8th in MVP voting. It’s hard to imagine Burleson, Nootbaar, or Carlson having that kind of season.

You could argue O’Neill may have one of the lowest floors out of this group, but his ceiling is just too high, and achievable, for O’Neill not to be number two on this list. And yet, the guy who takes the number one spot on this list has potential that this organization has not had in a prospect since Oscar Taveras.