Cardinals: How St. Louis should structure their roster for playoffs

The Cardinals have a wealth of talent on their roster, who makes the cut when it comes to October?

The St. Louis Cardinals have been on a tear for the month of August, and have now become legit contenders for the National League pennant. For most of the regular season, the narrative has been whether the Cardinals have enough talent to make the postseason, but now the conversation has shifted to who gives the club the best chance to win a World Series.

With various players finding their strides this month, others hitting slumps, and more returning from injury, one has to wonder what the best roster is for the Cardinals entering the postseason? Who should be in the starting lineup against right and left-handed pitching? Who makes the rotation? Which arms will be carried in the bullpen?

Here is how I would structure the Cardinals roster entering the 2022 postseason.

Lineup against right-handed pitching

RF Lars Nootbaar

LF Brendan Donovan

1B Paul Goldschmidt

3B Nolan Arenado

CF Tyler O’Neill

DH Corey Dickerson

2B Nolan Gorman

C Yadier Molina

SS Tommy Edman

Bench: Albert Pujols, Dylan Carlson, Paul DeJong, Jordan Walker, and Andrew Knizner.

One of the biggest question marks for St. Louis this season has been their best lineup versus right handed pitching. They have a lot of guys who can mash against left handed pitching, but many of their hitters had not found the same success against righties.

During the last 30 games though, Nootbaar and Donovan have risen to the surface as the perfect 1-2 hitters for their lineup against right handed pitching, posting OBPs of .413 and .426, respectively. O’Neill and Dickerson have caught fire lately as well, giving the Cardinals a really strong 1-6 against right handers.

Carlson and DeJong are the odd men out of this lineup. Although the club values Carlson’s elite defense, his .290 OBP against right handed pitching is just not good enough, and needs to be relegated to the bench. Gorman provides elite power from 2nd base, while DeJong has struggled again as of late. Shifting Tommy to shortstop gives the Cardinals their best possible lineup here.

Surrounding Goldschmidt and Arenado with these players gives the Cardinals a lineup that can put up runs in a hurry. As the game goes along, manager Oli Marmol can play matchups, should the opposing team choose to counter with any left handed relievers.

One major called up I would make is in the form of Jordan Walker. Walker is knocking at the door of a big league promotion, and could provide St. Louis another option off the bench to pinch hit in different matchups. Clubs around baseball are calling up their top prospects for the postseason push, and with one of the rotation arms joining the bullpen, the club could carry one less reliever in favor of Walker without actually penalizing the depth there.

If you think this option is unrealistic, Juan Yepez, who does not carry the same pedigree as Walker, made the Cardinals postseason roster last year for similar reasons.

The bench for this lineup would consist of Carlson, DeJong, Pujols, Walker, and Knizner. If left handers are brought into the game, Pujols, Carlson, or Walker could see pinch hit opportunities. Carrying five position players on the bench gives Marmol the flexibility to play matchups throughout the game, rather than wait till the last few innings.

Lineup against left-handed pitching

SS Tommy Edman

2B Brendan Donovan 

1B Paul Goldschmidt

3B Nolan Arenado

DH Albert Pujols

LF Tyler O’Neill

CF Dylan Carlson

C Yadier Molina

RF Lars Nootbaar

Bench: Nolan Gorman, Corey Dickerson, Paul DeJong, Jordan Walker, Andrew Knizner 

When opposing teams start a lefty on the mound, the Cardinals lineup flips around a bit and some new faces enter the lineup. Choosing to sit Gorman and Dickerson against lefties allows St. Louis to start two guys who mash against left handed pitching in Pujols and Carlson.

Pujols has a 1.231 OPS against left-handers, looking like his prime self from his first tenure with the Cardinals. The 42-year old gives the Cardinals three MVP level hitters in a row when lefties are on the mound, meaning the club is bound to put up runs.

There are some shifts at the top of the lineup as well, as Nootbaar moves down to the  9th spots in favor of Edman. On the season, Edman has an OBP against lefties of .422, making him a great lead off man for this lineup. Starting him at short here, rather than DeJong as Marmol has been doing, allows Donovan to remain in the lineup.

Donovan then maintains his spot hitting second, as his OBP verses lefties is also elite sitting at .433. Nootbaar has struggled a bit against lefties to this point, dropping him to the 9 hole but becoming an elite second leadoff man when righties enter the game.

Carlson has been batting second against southpaws, but I think he is better positioned as the club’s seventh hitter. Carlson’s OBP verses lefties is .388 on the season, with Carlson’s OPS rising all the way to .902. Having him follow up the big bats in the lineup gives the club one more guy to help drive in runs. He can be replaced later in the game for the likes of Dickerson or Gorman, with O’Neill shifting to center and either Dickerson or Donovan playing left.

Playing the numbers game and the eye test, these two lineups can compete with any lineup in the National League. The biggest question is whether or not Marmol will move DeJong out of the everyday lineup to create more opportunities for Donovan.

The bench for this lineup would then consist of Dickerson, Walker, DeJong, Gorman, and Knizner.

The playoff bullpen

RHP – Ryan Helsley 

RHP – Giovanni Gallegos 

RHP – Andre Pallante

LHP – Steven Matz

LHP – Jose Quintana

RHP – Jordan Hicks 

LHP – Zack Thompson

RHP – Chris Stratton

When playoff time rolls around, rotations shrink and your best remaining arms end up becoming bullpen weapons, and such is the case with Matz and Quintana.

The club has struggled to find consistency from southpaws out of the bullpen, with Zack Thompson being the lone reliable left hander at the moment. T.J McFarland was DFA’d early this year and Genesis Cabrera was just sent down to AAA to figure out whatever funk he is in. Letting Matz and Quintana take opportunities in big spots against left handed hitters, or even using them for multiple quality innings, is a huge advantage for the club.

Ryan Helsley holds down the fort as the club’s closer, but expect Marmol to deploy him in big spots, even if its not the ninth inning. Helsley may be the best reliever in baseball, with a 1.04 ERA and 77 SO in 52 innings. His mix of 100 mph+ fastballs and nasty off-speed pitches makes him an elite chess piece for the Cardinals in any series.

Right handers Giovanni Gallegos, Andre Pallante, and Jordan Hicks will likely be relied on during middle innings to bridge the gap to Helsley. Thompson and Stratton also provide great depth for the club, should their starting pitching falter in any series.

This club is deep, and with a few shifts in bullpen usage and lineup construction, Marmol can put this team in the best possible position to succeed come October. The Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and Atlanta Braves will be difficult to beat in the postseason, but this roster gives St. Louis a real shot against any team in baseball.