Cardinals: How St. Louis should structure their roster for playoffs

Lineup against left-handed pitching

SS Tommy Edman

2B Brendan Donovan 

1B Paul Goldschmidt

3B Nolan Arenado

DH Albert Pujols

LF Tyler O’Neill

CF Dylan Carlson

C Yadier Molina

RF Lars Nootbaar

Bench: Nolan Gorman, Corey Dickerson, Paul DeJong, Jordan Walker, Andrew Knizner 

When opposing teams start a lefty on the mound, the Cardinals lineup flips around a bit and some new faces enter the lineup. Choosing to sit Gorman and Dickerson against lefties allows St. Louis to start two guys who mash against left handed pitching in Pujols and Carlson.

Pujols has a 1.231 OPS against left-handers, looking like his prime self from his first tenure with the Cardinals. The 42-year old gives the Cardinals three MVP level hitters in a row when lefties are on the mound, meaning the club is bound to put up runs.

There are some shifts at the top of the lineup as well, as Nootbaar moves down to the  9th spots in favor of Edman. On the season, Edman has an OBP against lefties of .422, making him a great lead off man for this lineup. Starting him at short here, rather than DeJong as Marmol has been doing, allows Donovan to remain in the lineup.

Donovan then maintains his spot hitting second, as his OBP verses lefties is also elite sitting at .433. Nootbaar has struggled a bit against lefties to this point, dropping him to the 9 hole but becoming an elite second leadoff man when righties enter the game.

Carlson has been batting second against southpaws, but I think he is better positioned as the club’s seventh hitter. Carlson’s OBP verses lefties is .388 on the season, with Carlson’s OPS rising all the way to .902. Having him follow up the big bats in the lineup gives the club one more guy to help drive in runs. He can be replaced later in the game for the likes of Dickerson or Gorman, with O’Neill shifting to center and either Dickerson or Donovan playing left.

Playing the numbers game and the eye test, these two lineups can compete with any lineup in the National League. The biggest question is whether or not Marmol will move DeJong out of the everyday lineup to create more opportunities for Donovan.

The bench for this lineup would then consist of Dickerson, Walker, DeJong, Gorman, and Knizner.

The St. Louis Postseason rotation

#1 – Adam Wainwright

#2 – Jordan Montgomery

#3 – Miles Mikolas

#4 – Jack Flaherty 

It is crazy to think that in 2022, Adam Wainwright would be considered the ace of the Cardinals rotation. But there really is no other answer to who should receive the start in Game 1 of whatever series the Cardinals are in.

Wainwright just had his 41st birthday but is pitching like he is in his prime, posting a 3.09 ERA in 163 innings so far in 2022. His wealth of experience and maturity on the mound makes him the kind of guy you want with the ball in big moments.

Since being acquired by St. Louis at the deadline, Montgomery has been practically lights out, posting a 1.76 ERA in 30.2 innings of work, including an epic shutout against the Chicago Cubs and clutch start versus his former team, the New York Yankees, in his debut for the club. Mikolas has had some hiccups as of late but is still reliable in most starts, posting a 3.48 ERA in 168.1 innings of work.

The wild card here is Jack Flaherty. The right-hander is set to make his return to the club next week, and has looked strong in his recent rehab starts. If the right hander finds his form down the stretch, he could end up being the best starter in this rotation. There is an argument for having Flaherty come out of the bullpen to provide another elite option, but if he is ready and pitching like his old self, he needs to be in the rotation.

The playoff bullpen

RHP – Ryan Helsley 

RHP – Giovanni Gallegos 

RHP – Andre Pallante

LHP – Steven Matz

LHP – Jose Quintana

RHP – Jordan Hicks 

LHP – Zack Thompson

RHP – Chris Stratton

When playoff time rolls around, rotations shrink and your best remaining arms end up becoming bullpen weapons, and such is the case with Matz and Quintana.

The club has struggled to find consistency from southpaws out of the bullpen, with Zack Thompson being the lone reliable left hander at the moment. T.J McFarland was DFA’d early this year and Genesis Cabrera was just sent down to AAA to figure out whatever funk he is in. Letting Matz and Quintana take opportunities in big spots against left handed hitters, or even using them for multiple quality innings, is a huge advantage for the club.

Ryan Helsley holds down the fort as the club’s closer, but expect Marmol to deploy him in big spots, even if its not the ninth inning. Helsley may be the best reliever in baseball, with a 1.04 ERA and 77 SO in 52 innings. His mix of 100 mph+ fastballs and nasty off-speed pitches makes him an elite chess piece for the Cardinals in any series.

Right handers Giovanni Gallegos, Andre Pallante, and Jordan Hicks will likely be relied on during middle innings to bridge the gap to Helsley. Thompson and Stratton also provide great depth for the club, should their starting pitching falter in any series.

This club is deep, and with a few shifts in bullpen usage and lineup construction, Marmol can put this team in the best possible position to succeed come October. The Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and Atlanta Braves will be difficult to beat in the postseason, but this roster gives St. Louis a real shot against any team in baseball.