Cardinals: 5 early offseason trade and free agent targets

It is never too early to begin looking at some potential offseason moves, and there are clear trade and free agent candidates arising for the Cardinals.

The St. Louis Cardinals are fresh off one of the best trade deadlines in recent memory, but the ghosts of the 2022 offseason still haunt the club in some respect. Steven Matz, their big signing of the offseason, has dealt with injuries most of the year. The T.J. McFarland extension and signings like Drew VerHagen were complete misses. The injuries to Matz are not the clubs fault and the McFarland and VerHagen signings were low risk, yet they all leave sour tastes in fans mouths.

Corey Dickerson has come on as of late for the club, truly being that fourth outfielder and left handed DH option that the Cardinals were looking for. But by far the best signing of the offseason was the one that arguably could have gone the worst – Albert Pujols. Any time you bring a player in for their “last hoorah”, there is a big risk of the reunion falling flat and being an awkward send off. Yet, Pujols looks more like his prime self (versus left handed pitching) than a player in his final year.

As the club thinks ahead to the 2023 offseason, some clear needs are already beginning to arise. The catcher position will surely be looked at in light of Yadier Molina’s retirement at the end of this season. You can never have enough starting pitching, and the uncertainty around  Adam Wainwright’s return may create a need in the rotation. Other targets could be the shortstop position, a left handed platoon option against right handed pitching, or bullpen help.

Here are five offseason targets, via trade or free agency, that the Cardinals could pursue this offseason.

Willson Contreras

Perhaps the most rumored big name for St. Louis as of late, Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras would be a huge get for St. Louis and add another dimension to their lineup and a seasoned catcher to follow after Molina’s tenure.

There are a lot of reasons to be intrigued by a Contreras signing for St. Louis. First, whoever takes on the mantle of starting catcher following Molina is going to be under immense pressure and scrutiny. Expecting someone like Andrew Knizner or Ivan Hererra may be asking too much of either player.

Signing or trading for a stopgap catcher could do the trick, but why not go big on the weakest position on the roster? Contreras was the starting catcher on the 2016 World Series winning Cubs, meaning he has endured some of the highest pressure situations a player can find themselves in.

Having perhaps his career best season at the plate, Contreras is slashing .249/.358/.472 with 19 HR and 48 RBI for the rebuilding Cubs. Contreras has interesting splits for this St. Louis club, carrying a higher average vs. right handed pitching (.254 vs. .237 against left handed), but a much higher slugging percentage against southpaws (.581 vs. 435 against righties).

Contreras should be able to stick behind the plate for the duration of his contract, and is one of the better defensive catchers in the game. His bat carries value beyond the position as well, meaning he can DH or play in the corner outfield as needed  so he provides a long term safety net in case he cannot continue to catch.

Signing Contreras will not come cheap, but St. Louis is paying $10 million to Molina this season, a number that is far too high for the production he is giving. Contreras will likely command in the $20-$25 million AAV range over 5 years, but some within the industry believe he may have a smaller market than originally thought after the Cubs were unable to move him at the deadline.

Signing catchers to big deals can be risky, but the potential of stealing the last major piece of the Cubs World Series run from the club and having him help get St. Louis over the hump is tantalizing.

Carlos Rodon

Carlos Rodon, one of the players who had been linked to St. Louis both last offseason and at the deadline could end up being a great free agent pick-up. Rodon carries a lot of risk, but has proven to be an elite arm the last two seasons.

In 2021, across only 132.2 innings, Rodon went 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA and 12.6 SO per 9 innings, finishing 5th in the AL Cy Young award voting for the Chicago White Sox. Due to his injury history though, Rondon was only able to secure a two-year deal with the San Francisco Giants, one he will surely opt out of barring injury.

Rondon has kept his form in 2022 while remaining healthy for the Giants, sitting with an 11-6 record and 2.89 ERA across 140.1 innings of work while maintaing a 11.5 SO per 9 innings. Rondon’s FIP suggests he is even better than that, carrying a 2.34 FIP for a team that struggles defensively.

If Rondon remains healthy, which has been a big if prior to his healthy 2022 season, his elite ability to create swings and misses as well as soft contact would not only play well in front of the Cardinals defense, but could allow him to matchup with almost anyone in baseball. Rondon, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, and Steven Matz would be a dangerous rotation and puts St. Louis firmly in the mix for a World Series.

Sean Murphy

The Oakland Athletics appear to be a long way from the end of their rebuild, and catcher Sean Murphy may be the next in line to go.

The 27-year old has shown a lot of promise in his career and holds a .249/.327/.446 line with 16 HR and 52 RBI for a club with very little talent around him. Playing in 108 games so far this year, Murphy is dependable behind the plate and would provide St. Louis with an excellent player.

Murphy has three years of team control remaining, and with how thin the catcher position is around the league, may require an expensive package to get any deal done. The appeal of trading for Murphy over signing Contreras is he is three years younger and will be significantly cheaper for the next three years.

The catcher does not have much experience when it comes to playoff pushes, but there is nothing in his game that would suggest he could not handle big moments. Murphy may even be viewed as the highest level stop gap the club can find, as it opens up a three year window to identify him or someone else as the long term replacement at catcher.

Corey Knebel

The Cardinals have had a much more stable bullpen in 2022 than years past, with guys like Ryan Helsley, Giovanni Gallegos, Genesis Cabrera, Jordan Hicks, Andre Pallante, and more proving to be great options for the club. Every fan knows though, who you can trust in your bullpen can be extremely difficult to predict.

The Cardinals could look to add either a right or left handed veteran reliever to their mix this offseason, and one name that seems like an interesting fit is Corey Knebel. With Pallante or Hicks possibly being stretched out again as starters and just the likelihood of at least one of their main guys struggling next year, bringing in an experienced arm can provide a lot of value to the club.

Knebel struggled early on in 2022 and was removed from the primary closer role for the Phillies but has a 3.43 ERA in 46 games. The sinker baller has been a reliable bullpen arm since debuting in 2014, and could thrive in St. Louis with their bullpen usage. Deploying Helsley in big spots means that there are games where Oli Marmol may need another reliever to close the game, or may need more arms for other big spots. Knebel has the track record to be trusted in this environment.

There are a lot of relievers hitting the market this winter with at least late inning experience in their careers, meaning the Cardinals front office could do a deal with any number of relievers to strengthen their bullpen.