Cardinals: 5 early offseason trade and free agent targets

Willson Contreras

Perhaps the most rumored big name for St. Louis as of late, Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras would be a huge get for St. Louis and add another dimension to their lineup and a seasoned catcher to follow after Molina’s tenure.

There are a lot of reasons to be intrigued by a Contreras signing for St. Louis. First, whoever takes on the mantle of starting catcher following Molina is going to be under immense pressure and scrutiny. Expecting someone like Andrew Knizner or Ivan Hererra may be asking too much of either player.

Signing or trading for a stopgap catcher could do the trick, but why not go big on the weakest position on the roster? Contreras was the starting catcher on the 2016 World Series winning Cubs, meaning he has endured some of the highest pressure situations a player can find themselves in.

Having perhaps his career best season at the plate, Contreras is slashing .249/.358/.472 with 19 HR and 48 RBI for the rebuilding Cubs. Contreras has interesting splits for this St. Louis club, carrying a higher average vs. right handed pitching (.254 vs. .237 against left handed), but a much higher slugging percentage against southpaws (.581 vs. 435 against righties).

Contreras should be able to stick behind the plate for the duration of his contract, and is one of the better defensive catchers in the game. His bat carries value beyond the position as well, meaning he can DH or play in the corner outfield as needed  so he provides a long term safety net in case he cannot continue to catch.

Signing Contreras will not come cheap, but St. Louis is paying $10 million to Molina this season, a number that is far too high for the production he is giving. Contreras will likely command in the $20-$25 million AAV range over 5 years, but some within the industry believe he may have a smaller market than originally thought after the Cubs were unable to move him at the deadline.

Signing catchers to big deals can be risky, but the potential of stealing the last major piece of the Cubs World Series run from the club and having him help get St. Louis over the hump is tantalizing.

Carlos Rodon

Carlos Rodon, one of the players who had been linked to St. Louis both last offseason and at the deadline could end up being a great free agent pick-up. Rodon carries a lot of risk, but has proven to be an elite arm the last two seasons.

In 2021, across only 132.2 innings, Rodon went 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA and 12.6 SO per 9 innings, finishing 5th in the AL Cy Young award voting for the Chicago White Sox. Due to his injury history though, Rondon was only able to secure a two-year deal with the San Francisco Giants, one he will surely opt out of barring injury.

Rondon has kept his form in 2022 while remaining healthy for the Giants, sitting with an 11-6 record and 2.89 ERA across 140.1 innings of work while maintaing a 11.5 SO per 9 innings. Rondon’s FIP suggests he is even better than that, carrying a 2.34 FIP for a team that struggles defensively.

If Rondon remains healthy, which has been a big if prior to his healthy 2022 season, his elite ability to create swings and misses as well as soft contact would not only play well in front of the Cardinals defense, but could allow him to matchup with almost anyone in baseball. Rondon, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, and Steven Matz would be a dangerous rotation and puts St. Louis firmly in the mix for a World Series.

Shane Bieber

Much like Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez before him, Shane Bieber has been a player that is speculated to be dealt by the Cleveland Guardians before he hits free agency. Although Lindor was traded and Ramirez was extended, Biebers injury history and the Guardians depth in their pitching staff makes him a different situation.

The Cardinals seem to be linked to Bieber when his name gets brought up, and for good reason. St. Louis loves acquiring their bigger names via trade, especially when their value is lower. Bieber is still an ace quality pitcher, but his injuries and concerns about velocity make him a bit less valuable than in seasons past.

The former Cy Young award winner is 8-6 with a 3.18 ERA and 9.1 SO per 9 innings, which is lower than in past seasons when it was well above 10. Bieber is under team control through the 2024 season, meaning the Cardinals could have him at an affordable price tag for two seasons before having to make a decision on extending him.

Why would the Guardians do this though as a contending team? Well the club has a history of dealing players if they cannot extend them (Lindor) but will keep stars when they agree to team friendly contracts (Ramirez). If the club is not comfortable extending Bieber or cannot agree to a price with him, they may look to capitalize on his remaining value.

The Guardians have great pitching depth and need bats for their lineup. St. Louis could offer a combination of players like Alec Burleson, Juan Yepez, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, among others who could immediately improve the Cleveland lineup. It may require parting with one bigger name than that crew, but it is very possible that a package of multiple young, team controlled bats would entice the Guardians.

For St. Louis, Bieber would have a similar impact on their rotation as Rondon, but come at a cheaper price point for the next few seasons and the club would not have to extend him long term if there are injuries or decline in performance.

Sean Murphy

The Oakland Athletics appear to be a long way from the end of their rebuild, and catcher Sean Murphy may be the next in line to go.

The 27-year old has shown a lot of promise in his career and holds a .249/.327/.446 line with 16 HR and 52 RBI for a club with very little talent around him. Playing in 108 games so far this year, Murphy is dependable behind the plate and would provide St. Louis with an excellent player.

Murphy has three years of team control remaining, and with how thin the catcher position is around the league, may require an expensive package to get any deal done. The appeal of trading for Murphy over signing Contreras is he is three years younger and will be significantly cheaper for the next three years.

The catcher does not have much experience when it comes to playoff pushes, but there is nothing in his game that would suggest he could not handle big moments. Murphy may even be viewed as the highest level stop gap the club can find, as it opens up a three year window to identify him or someone else as the long term replacement at catcher.

Corey Knebel

The Cardinals have had a much more stable bullpen in 2022 than years past, with guys like Ryan Helsley, Giovanni Gallegos, Genesis Cabrera, Jordan Hicks, Andre Pallante, and more proving to be great options for the club. Every fan knows though, who you can trust in your bullpen can be extremely difficult to predict.

The Cardinals could look to add either a right or left handed veteran reliever to their mix this offseason, and one name that seems like an interesting fit is Corey Knebel. With Pallante or Hicks possibly being stretched out again as starters and just the likelihood of at least one of their main guys struggling next year, bringing in an experienced arm can provide a lot of value to the club.

Knebel struggled early on in 2022 and was removed from the primary closer role for the Phillies but has a 3.43 ERA in 46 games. The sinker baller has been a reliable bullpen arm since debuting in 2014, and could thrive in St. Louis with their bullpen usage. Deploying Helsley in big spots means that there are games where Oli Marmol may need another reliever to close the game, or may need more arms for other big spots. Knebel has the track record to be trusted in this environment.

There are a lot of relievers hitting the market this winter with at least late inning experience in their careers, meaning the Cardinals front office could do a deal with any number of relievers to strengthen their bullpen.