The St. Louis Cardinals are the Perfect Trade Destination for Mike Trout

The Angels are past the point of no return

For the last decade, the Angels have been the poster child for disappointment around Major League baseball. Despite having one of the greatest talents in MLB history in Mike Trout, an ownership group willing to hand out any contract, and in recent seasons, two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, the club has not made the playoffs since 2014.

It only gets worse from here. Shohei Ohtani is a free agent after the 2023 season and seems likely to leave the club. The Angels farm system is the 30th ranked in all of baseball according to MLB.com. The club has very little young talent on the major league roster and is being held down by an albatross contract in Anthony Rendon. The future is bleak.

The Washington Nationals are a great parallel for this club. The Nationals won the World Series in 2019 and have since fallen off a cliff. The lack of a strong farm system, impending ownership change, and non-competitive club force their front office to trade away a generational superstar, who was just 23 years old, in Soto to jump start their rebuild. Although you never want to lose superstar talent, the Nationals had to in order to build again.

Even if the Angels trade Ohtani for a large package, holding onto Trout makes little sense for the club. The Angels will require a multi-year rebuild, and their centerfielder is already 31 years old. Trout wants to compete for World Series at this point, and the Angels are not even close to being a team who could even make the playoffs.

Due to Trout’s age, contract, and injury situation though, his trade value may look more like that of a Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt than the haul that a player like Soto commanded.

What is Trout’s value on the trade market?

Although Trout has never indicated he will ask for a trade out of Anaheim, the superstar may quickly reconsider now that Ohtani is as sure as gone and ownership is in flux. The 31-year old has a no-trade clause, meaning he can control his destiny in any trade package.

This alone limits what kind of value the Angels could get from a Trout trade. They cannot just take the best package available, as Trout can veto any offers. This also makes the pool of teams more limited as well, despite being locked into a long-term deal. St. Louis would likely be one of the few teams who Trout would consider.

Then comes the tricky part for the Angels. Trout still has 8 years, $296.8 million remaining on his contract, locking him up through his age 39 season. Although Trout’s bat should age well and he would likely play competent defense even late in his 30s, his recent struggles with injuries and uncertainty surrounding his back makes Trout a risky acquisition. Since 2017, Trout has played in just 67.5% of the Angels games.

No matter how good of a player he is, the best ability is availability, and clubs will use this concern, plus the large contract, to lessen the cost of the superstar even further.

The Angels would likely look to go down the path of the Arenado trade, where St. Louis got the Rockies to eat $50 million of his contract in that deal. It is doubtful they get a package as thin as what the Rockies got for Arenado, but it also wouldn’t be much larger either. Arenado was going on his age 30 season, had remained healthy thought his career, and outside of the pandemic shortened season, showed no signs of decline.

Looking at the potential teams that could deal for Trout, it is doubtful the Angels would send him to the Dodgers unless they offered something that blew all other offers out of the water, and their cross-town rival will likely be targeting Ohtani anyways. The Padres lack the payroll flexibility and prospects after the Soto trade, and the Yankees’ involvement would likely depend on an Aaron Judge extension.

There are plenty of teams that would at least call about Trout, but when you look at all the options, St. Louis rises to the top. Here is what the Cardinals could offer to the Angels.

What a Cardinals’ trade package for Mike Trout would look like

As stated earlier, Trout has the power to veto any trade, has one of the largest contracts in baseball, a concerning injury history, and is 31 years old. All of this factors negatively toward his trade value.

Yet, Trout still is one of the best players in the game. In 2022, Trout is slashing .272/.366/.597 with 26 HR and 54 RBI in 85 games, which is a down year for him but still makes him a top 5 player in baseball. Trout had a rough stretch in months of June and July, but otherwise has played like his prime self. Because of this, he will still command value in any deal.

The Cardinals could approach it from multiple angles. The more money the Angels eat, the more value the club will have to part with. If the Angels are willing to eat 30% of Trout’s contract like the Rockies did with Arenado, they could command a prospect package better than Colorado, perhaps with a mixture of guys like Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson, or Gordon Graceffo. These three guys in themselves may get the deal done, or a mixture of some other prospects.

There are other scenarios at play as well. If the Angels are set on paying as minimal of Trout’s contract as possible, then they could try to bring back some low ceiling prospects and call it a day, or maybe the eat even more of Trout’s contract and have their eyes set on one of Dylan Carlson, Nolan Gorman, or Maysn Winn as the centerpiece.

Let’s just predict here that Los Angeles eats up about 25%-30% of Trout’s contract and acquires Juan Yepez, Gordon Graceffo, Joshua Baez, and maybe a lower tier prospect or two. That brings Trout’s AAV down to about $25 million a year, tied for 24th in baseball with the likes of Marcus Stroman, Marcus Semien, and Joey Votto.

You could argue they’d need to throw in a Tink Hence, Maysn Winn, or Carlson due to that crazy value, but others’ would have argued that for Arenado as well, but look at the lack of talent Colorado acquired in that deal. 

The Angels eating a chunk of Trout’s deal makes this a very realistic target for St. Louis. Having Goldschmidt and Arenado on large contracts makes it difficult to fit in another, but $25 million is a manageable number. Adam Wainwright’s $17,500,000 and Yadier Molina’s $10,000,000 contracts are coming off the books after this season, and Mikolas’ $16,750,000 AAV deal is finished in 2023.

St. Louis also showed in their Soto pursuit that they are in a position to add another large contract to their books. Their willingness to acquire Soto for even just his remaining team control meant the club would have to pay the outfielder $17,100,000 this year with significant pay bumps each of the two seasons after that. Although Trout is locked in long term, the lowered trade value and contract AAV puts St. Louis in prime position.

What would the St. Louis team look like if this deal was pulled off? Would it make sense for their long term plans?

Mike Trout would make St. Louis Cardinals the clear favorites in the National League

Mike Trout. Paul Goldschmidt. Nolan Arenado. Do I need to stay anything else?

Look at the potential lineup the Cardinals could roll out on Opening Day of 2023.

CF Dylan Carlson

RF Mike Trout

1B Paul Goldschmidt

3B Nolan Arenado

DH Jordan Walker

2B Nolan Gorman

LF Tyler O’Neill

C Andrew Knizner/Ivan Herrera 

SS Tommy Edman/Paul DeJong

If that doesn’t strike fear in the hearts of pitchers around the league, no lineup will. The club has 3 legit MVP level players batting 2, 3, and 4 in their lineup, with a budding superstar in Jordan Walker who could land in that conversation sooner than later. The depth that this roster has will allow Trout to DH more often, play centerfield less, and take more days off to care for his long term health.

If the club wants to acquire more pitching, guys like Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, and Paul DeJong could be on the block to bring in controllable arms, with the likes of Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar ready to step in.

On top of all of that, the club would still have guys like Winn, Hence, and others coming through the pipeline to provide future big league contributors to keep the roster in tact. This is one of the few organizations that could take on Mike Trout, compete for a World Series right now, and be set to compete for years to come.

To some fans, this deal may seem far fetched. But so would have a Soto, Mookie Betts, Goldschmidt, Arenado, and eventually Ohtani trades until they came to be.